Money Posted February 25, 2014 Report Share Posted February 25, 2014 This is for the wave/storm in the HR 90-102 range. I figured we are close enough to the time period for a thread. We could make a new one for the later time period (3/2 to 3/4) if the model runs hold. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jaycee Posted February 25, 2014 Report Share Posted February 25, 2014 This is for the wave/storm in the HR 90-102 range. I figured we are close enough to the time period for a thread. We could make a new one for the later time period (3/2 to 3/4) if the model runs hold.Nice. Money, where you at again?? I recall your close to my parents up in Red Wing, MN, and they have a TON of snow on the ground right now. I'm hoping this doesn't shift any further north, starting to look like a complete IA special with half the amounts here in Eastern Nebraska, in terms of the 00z GFS. Not concerned, as it's just one run this far out, just hope it's not a trend! Really hope we all get it good from this, except Geos we need it out here to help get our ground nice and wet for spring to help generate moisture for storms. Hope Nebraska can be the winner for the first time this year. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Money Posted February 25, 2014 Author Report Share Posted February 25, 2014 9z SREF Plumes OSH: 6.88 3 members below 4, every other member 4+LSE: 7.90MKE: 3.7ORD: 1.58DBQ: 4.9 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Money Posted February 25, 2014 Author Report Share Posted February 25, 2014 NAM looks good as well. Widespread 4-6 from IA into WI/IL Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tony Posted February 25, 2014 Report Share Posted February 25, 2014 Going to put my 2 cents in for what it is worth. This is definitely not set in stone but models are converging on a senario that could be the best setup we have seen all winter countrywide. This is the time of the year where you can get the most explosive storms to develope even though this is better setup than a woundup system . Temperature contrasts will play a huge part as well as to where the baroclinic zone sets up shop for WAA snows to develope. The artic air will be in place and then we have plenty of moisture to go around this time of the year which we haven't seen too much of this winter. This also has the looks of a very slow mover of waves developing along the baro zone from west to east for a long duration/high ratio moderate to heavy snow event. This could be a historic snow maker(and I say that because many are on the verge of breaking snow records) and I can easily see 18"+ from a setup like this when all is said and done. Also, these types of systems tend to cover a large area so I can see places from the plains to the east coast getting in on the action. The problem I see with this setup looking at the maps would be a huge ice storm for the southern areas. Tons of available qpf and low level cold could lead to a nasty outbreak. Of course after this passes it looks like we get into the deep freeze for a little while until probably mid-month when maybe the pattern will break which would make a few people very happy. I for one say lets go for the record. If its going to be cold then it might as well snow and if its going to snow then make it a BIG DOG and make it memorable. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tony Posted February 25, 2014 Report Share Posted February 25, 2014 84hr NAM.....CA getting in on some major action. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
East Dubzz Posted February 25, 2014 Report Share Posted February 25, 2014 And a not so good run on the 12z GFS for this system. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted February 25, 2014 Report Share Posted February 25, 2014 So far with the 12z run, Saturday night looks like the biggest deal for WI and up this way. Next wave Quote Mercer Island, 350 ft 2021-2022: 11.6", 02/21 2020-2021: 15.6" 2019-2020: ~10" 2018-2019 winter snowfall total: 29.5" 2017-2018: 9.0", 2016-2017: 14.0" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tony Posted February 25, 2014 Report Share Posted February 25, 2014 Not epic but still ok Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted February 25, 2014 Report Share Posted February 25, 2014 Expanded the date till the 2nd. Quote Mercer Island, 350 ft 2021-2022: 11.6", 02/21 2020-2021: 15.6" 2019-2020: ~10" 2018-2019 winter snowfall total: 29.5" 2017-2018: 9.0", 2016-2017: 14.0" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tony Posted February 25, 2014 Report Share Posted February 25, 2014 Heavy precip stays south on this run. Hopefully HP does not squash it further south. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted February 25, 2014 Report Share Posted February 25, 2014 I agree with Tony that when you have these long duration multi-day scenarios you can really stack up the snowfall. This event is looking more and more interesting still 84+ hours out and models are still spitting out quite a bit of precip. I'm guessing that the snowfall totals may increase as we get closer to the event when better data comes in. Snow ratios will be very high so that will also bode well for accumulations and a wind off the lake for lakeside counties. A widespread 12"+ event may be in the works from the Plains to the Great Lakes. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted February 25, 2014 Report Share Posted February 25, 2014 12z NAM for Friday night wave...still snows beyond that. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
East Dubzz Posted February 25, 2014 Report Share Posted February 25, 2014 I agree with Tony that when you have these long duration multi-day scenarios you can really stack up the snowfall. This event is looking more and more interesting still 84+ hours out and models are still spitting out quite a bit of precip. I'm guessing that the snowfall totals may increase as we get closer to the event when better data comes in. Snow ratios will be very high so that will also bode well for accumulations and a wind off the lake for lakeside counties. A widespread 12"+ event may be in the works from the Plains to the Great Lakes.I'm liking 6+" widespread and maybe even 8+" widespread if this is what the models continue to show. 12" widespread just seems like it would be tough to get with WAA snows, which has been previously mentioned. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DominicR Posted February 25, 2014 Report Share Posted February 25, 2014 Still a solid 6-10 inches for most. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jaycee Posted February 25, 2014 Report Share Posted February 25, 2014 I would love a storm that Nebraska and Chicago folks can high five on. Come on 6z GFS! Haha, hopefully its right for once. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DominicR Posted February 25, 2014 Report Share Posted February 25, 2014 I heard GGEM is south. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted February 25, 2014 Report Share Posted February 25, 2014 12z GGEM suppressed big time by over powering High Pressure. This model is probably the odd ball with a bias on leading to a much stronger High Pressure. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEJeremy Posted February 25, 2014 Report Share Posted February 25, 2014 Not epic but still okThis makes more sense Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
james1976 Posted February 25, 2014 Report Share Posted February 25, 2014 well hopefully the models dont start weakening. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted February 25, 2014 Report Share Posted February 25, 2014 00z Euro... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
East Dubzz Posted February 25, 2014 Report Share Posted February 25, 2014 Looks like the Euro brings two waves through Friday night then Saturday night, and then keeps the bigger wave suppressed. Not a bad hit for me, still .40" QPF, but seems like a big difference from the GFS. I have a feeling this is either going to be a big surprise or a big disappointment. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted February 25, 2014 Report Share Posted February 25, 2014 Euro still would bring widespread 4-8" snows but like you said ED, it wants to bring the bigger wave Sun/Mon down south along OV and into east coast. Models will bounce back and forth so as long as it still is showing a system this far out I'm optimistic we will see some decent snowfall. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tony Posted February 25, 2014 Report Share Posted February 25, 2014 Looking like partial sampling of this system will not happen until 0z Saturday for the main wave so a long road ahead. Hopefully the first wave and WAA can overperform just in case the main wave gets shunted south. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tony Posted February 25, 2014 Report Share Posted February 25, 2014 12z runs were not our friend today so onto the 18z runs for a stronger first wave and correction to the north with the 2nd. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted February 25, 2014 Report Share Posted February 25, 2014 00z Euro precip...you can fluff that up easily to 15:1... Climatologically speaking a northward track of the 2nd wave would favor our area with the heaviest snows. Then again, this isn't a normal winter, however, the LRC track is still in our back pocket. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tony Posted February 25, 2014 Report Share Posted February 25, 2014 Maybe Geos can look into seeing what lake enhancement(if any) will look like with this setup. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted February 25, 2014 Report Share Posted February 25, 2014 That inversion will have to raise itself up in order to get lake enhancement. If it does raise up, the Delta Ts are low end. . Quote Mercer Island, 350 ft 2021-2022: 11.6", 02/21 2020-2021: 15.6" 2019-2020: ~10" 2018-2019 winter snowfall total: 29.5" 2017-2018: 9.0", 2016-2017: 14.0" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tony Posted February 25, 2014 Report Share Posted February 25, 2014 Looking at the maps, this is such an elongated hp that I am having a hard time believing that this would shunt the storm so far south. It really does not scream supression but what the heck do I know. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted February 25, 2014 Report Share Posted February 25, 2014 It looks like a Banana High set up that normally wouldn't deflect a system and suppress it to the south. We'll see how the models better handle the piece of energy and High Pressure to the north. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
james1976 Posted February 25, 2014 Report Share Posted February 25, 2014 Euro has not been my friend all winter. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted February 25, 2014 Report Share Posted February 25, 2014 Would be nice if the JMA was our friend.... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
james1976 Posted February 25, 2014 Report Share Posted February 25, 2014 lock that in! lol Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted February 25, 2014 Report Share Posted February 25, 2014 EURO has Delta Ts of 18°C and a good fetch. If there is an inversion than it won't due much for lake enhancement. Quote Mercer Island, 350 ft 2021-2022: 11.6", 02/21 2020-2021: 15.6" 2019-2020: ~10" 2018-2019 winter snowfall total: 29.5" 2017-2018: 9.0", 2016-2017: 14.0" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jaycee Posted February 25, 2014 Report Share Posted February 25, 2014 JMA for the win! Wow thatd be the storm of the decade right there. A little concerned about the dry slot shown by the EURO. Its sharp, but its right over me. Hoping that banana high north is just a tad stronger so i can clock in on heavy totals. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tony Posted February 25, 2014 Report Share Posted February 25, 2014 18z NAM looks really sweet!! and still more snow to go Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tony Posted February 25, 2014 Report Share Posted February 25, 2014 Might as well post this as well Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted February 25, 2014 Report Share Posted February 25, 2014 18z NAM very bullish with 1st wave...its in its "Fantasy" range but showing an energetic little wave. +1 Tony, didn't see you post that map. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tony Posted February 25, 2014 Report Share Posted February 25, 2014 18z NAM very bullish with 1st wave...its in its "Fantasy" range but showing an energetic little wave. +1 Tony, didn't see you post that map.....hope it continues to show this on future runs.Quiet in here. Everyone must be waiting for the GFS Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
abhidupage Posted February 25, 2014 Report Share Posted February 25, 2014 Just talked to Caplan Mircocast has 2-5" areawide friday then another 2-5" by sunday morning. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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