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2/28-3/2 Potential Storm


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i dont think any of the models show the same thing happening, thats why im holding onto my 1% chance of 18"..

 

The southern part of the snow area is what really gets me. 

 

Mercer Island, 350 ft

2021-2022: 11.6", 02/21

2020-2021: 15.6"

2019-2020: ~10"

2018-2019 winter snowfall total: 29.5"

2017-2018: 9.0", 2016-2017: 14.0"

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The southern part of the snow area is what really gets me. 

 

yea and throw in the ggem and the euro and it gets even uglier....lol

 

Midwest, Springfield is under a WSW and their Grid forecast is for 6-14" of snow!  What the theck???

 

 

Snowman, you can easily fluff that up to 15:1 snow ratios so very high end advisory snowfall.

where are the getting that from.???? thats a crazy amount with only what?, one model showing 9".

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^ LOL, if Nashville gets more snow than us here...this would be the biggest bust in history.  On Wx Bell maps, it doesn't do a good job indicating where freezing rain/sleet falls so that is probably what it would be instead of snow.

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Nashville is projected to get a little bit of rain and freezing rain, according to their grid from this aft.

 

Here is the 0z euro for them:

 

MON 00Z 03-MAR   3.6     8.1    1017      97     100    0.21     569     555    
MON 06Z 03-MAR  -0.2     5.3    1016      97      94    0.70     564     551    
MON 12Z 03-MAR  -6.1    -2.8    1021      84     100    0.74     557     541    
MON 18Z 03-MAR  -2.7    -6.0    1025      61      57    0.06     558     538    
TUE 00Z 04-MAR  -7.5    -3.8    1028      77      12    0.00     561     539    
TUE 06Z 04-MAR -11.9     0.8    1027      87      14    0.00     562     541

 

0.7 FZR   0.80 SN  

 

lol

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Bit of a surprise, woke up to 1.25" on the ground. Maybe tonight can over perform as well.

 

Point forecast calling for less than 1" today, 3-7" tonight.

 

18º currently.

On a long enough timeline, the survival rate for everyone drops to zero.

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I only got a trace or maybe 0.1" from the first system late Friday, so it's all down to system #2 today.  I'm not optimistic.

season snowfall: 34.8"

'22-23: 30.2"      '21-22: 27.1"      '20-21: 52.5"      '19-20: 36.2"      '18-19: 50.2"      '17-18: 39.5"

Average snowfall: ~30"

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Haha (and I say that exhaustedly)

 

I feel like I've wasted too much energy on what is slowly showing to be a minor event. The LRC didn't really pan out this time around. Model chaos was supreme too.

  • Like 1

...The Artist Formerly Known as RJSnowLover...

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Only 12:1 ratio from the snow this morning. Flake size must have not been that decent.

 

Sun is actually out now.

Mercer Island, 350 ft

2021-2022: 11.6", 02/21

2020-2021: 15.6"

2019-2020: ~10"

2018-2019 winter snowfall total: 29.5"

2017-2018: 9.0", 2016-2017: 14.0"

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So we are thinking 1-3" now possibly 5", I think that's a stretch, especially if this is moving faster. It seems like a lot of the systems have been under estimated in speed. Is the jet stream stronger around here now?

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If you look at the water vapor imagery you can see all that pacific moisture being thrown up our way. Hard to believe by looking at this that the moisture being shown on the models is pretty much nothing. Will be curious to see how the radar progresses throughout the day.

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