Tom Posted February 25, 2014 Report Share Posted February 25, 2014 D**n, that would be nice warning type snows from 2 separate waves....the main system would hit Sunday/Monday. This could turn out to be a huge mult-day event if the main event comes north for Sun/Mon. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Iowawx Posted February 25, 2014 Report Share Posted February 25, 2014 I really hope all models start to look better for the big event. They lost strength today, but hopefully can come back stronger. 18Z GFS is getting closer to the event. Up to hour 90. I think this thread should say 2/28-3/4 storm because it could last longer. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted February 25, 2014 Report Share Posted February 25, 2014 18z GFS came north this run...there is another wave developing over the Plains as well on Monday... 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Iowawx Posted February 25, 2014 Report Share Posted February 25, 2014 Other wave weakens rapidly on Monday. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tony Posted February 25, 2014 Report Share Posted February 25, 2014 Wow this crazy. Does not show much at all for the Friday wave and dumps on Sunday Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted February 25, 2014 Report Share Posted February 25, 2014 Interesting that the GFS is picking up on lake effect signature Sunday night into Monday...developing a long lake plume this far out is rather impressive. Could be an ideal set up for lakeside counties. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tony Posted February 25, 2014 Report Share Posted February 25, 2014 So we take the NAM for Friday and the GFS for Sunday and everyone goes home happy! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Money Posted February 25, 2014 Author Report Share Posted February 25, 2014 NAM with 6+ here on the first wave, or very close, and 18z GFS with 10 or so all together. SREF plume mean is generally in the 4-6 range for the 1st wave in WI and IA. 12z ECMWF is probably about 4-6 all together. South than the other models with the FRI/SAT wave. MKE AFD: THE OVERALL FLOW REORIENTS FROM A BRUTAL COLD NORTHWEST FLOW...TOA MORE ZONAL...BUT IT WILL BE A VERY ACTIVE FLOW. THE MID LEVELFLOW BECOMES ZONAL BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON. ABOUT 3 OR 4 SEPARATEWAVES SHORT WAVES MOVE THROUGH THE AREA DURING THISPERIOD...BRINGING A RATHER LONG DURATION LIGHT SNOW EVENT TO THEUPPER MIDWEST. IT APPEARS IT WILL SNOW ON AND OFF FOR ABOUT 4DAYS. USING A CONSENSUS OF PRECIP ACCUMS GIVES ABOUT 1/2 INCH OFPRECIP ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA...A LITTLELESS TO THE NORTH. THIS TRANSLATES TO ABOUT 4 TO 7 INCHES OFSNOW. FRIDAY WILL BE OUR FIRST MAIN ROUND OF POSSIBLE SNOW. ALITTLE BREAK LATE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING. MORE SNOWSATURDAY AFTERNOON INTO SATURDAY NIGHT. ANOTHER 12 HOUR BREAK WITHMORE SNOW BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted February 25, 2014 Report Share Posted February 25, 2014 Next week will be much more brutal temp wise especially if there is a re-established snow cover...welcome March! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Money Posted February 25, 2014 Author Report Share Posted February 25, 2014 Next week will be much more brutal temp wise especially if there is a re-established snow cover...welcome March! 18z GFS showing lows of -15 to -20 below for 3-4. Highs of 0 to 5 or so. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted February 25, 2014 Report Share Posted February 25, 2014 This will be one of the most brutal March opens I can remember. I remember the Super storm of March 12-13 1993 that produced Lake Effect snow in NE IL and had very cold temps, but what the 18z GFS is showing next week is down right crazy. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted February 25, 2014 Report Share Posted February 25, 2014 Brant Miller's model just showed 5-10" for the Fri/Sat wave, then another 6-12" for the Sat-Sun event....are you kidding me??? 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tony Posted February 25, 2014 Report Share Posted February 25, 2014 Brant Miller's model just showed 5-10" for the Fri/Sat wave, then another 6-12" for the Sat-Sun event....are you kidding me???Going with NAM on 1st wave and GFS on 2nd. I like his model...lock it in!! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DominicR Posted February 25, 2014 Report Share Posted February 25, 2014 Brant Miller's model just showed 5-10" for the Fri/Sat wave, then another 6-12" for the Sat-Sun event....are you kidding me??? Hmmm looks like NAM/GFS may be way to robust compared to GGEM/EURO/UKMET Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scott26 Posted February 25, 2014 Report Share Posted February 25, 2014 Hmmm looks like NAM/GFS may be way to robust compared to GGEM/EURO/UKMETAmerican vs. Foreign model competition once again. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted February 25, 2014 Report Share Posted February 25, 2014 Can you imagine if we can contribute more lake moisture into this event??? There could be some very impressive totals lake side and I'm beginning to think that is what we will see and maybe a repeat of the Jan 4-5th snowstorm. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scott26 Posted February 25, 2014 Report Share Posted February 25, 2014 Brant Miller's model just showed 5-10" for the Fri/Sat wave, then another 6-12" for the Sat-Sun event....are you kidding me???I really hate when tv meteorologists do that. People end up freaking out over these ridiculous snow amounts some tv mets show that usually don't end up happening. Most of the public isn't like us and aren't aware of the other guidance out there. Considering there are already people talking about getting 16 inches of snow next week really verifies that. I'm not saying it can't happen, but at this time it's better not to show extreme amounts. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted February 25, 2014 Report Share Posted February 25, 2014 Well, lets see what the 00z suite of runs show tonight. 1st wave Fri/Sat looks like it can even support a solid high end advisory. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
East Dubzz Posted February 25, 2014 Report Share Posted February 25, 2014 Well, lets see what the 00z suite of runs show tonight. 1st wave Fri/Sat looks like it can even support a solid high end advisory.Indeed, very excited to see what tonight's runs show. The 1st wave is garnering my attention a little bit, would be nice to get an advisory level snow out of that. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted February 25, 2014 Report Share Posted February 25, 2014 Scott, you have a point there but I think its good in a way to show the public what the trend is days in advance so ppl can prepare. Since we have had such a brutal winter in Chicago, I think mets are hoisting their so-called "warning" flags as their models may have some credence to the predicted snow amounts since it fits the overall pattern we have been in all winter long. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tony Posted February 25, 2014 Report Share Posted February 25, 2014 Indeed, very excited to see what tonight's runs show. The 1st wave is garnering my attention a little bit, would be nice to get an advisory level snow out of that.The NAM on the past 2 runs has been consistent in showing a robust wave instead of it shearing out like some of the other models. This was looking like WAA snows a couple runs ago but not so sure anymore. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
james1976 Posted February 25, 2014 Report Share Posted February 25, 2014 wow the NAM sucks for me. it doesnt even develop til it gets to eastern iowa. hope that dont pan out. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LincWeath Posted February 25, 2014 Report Share Posted February 25, 2014 And everything on GFS continues to push north. NAM showing nothing for us. By Friday Lincoln will be in the 1-2 inch range again. Go figure Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
indianajohn Posted February 25, 2014 Report Share Posted February 25, 2014 Brant Miller's model just showed 5-10" for the Fri/Sat wave, then another 6-12" for the Sat-Sun event....are you kidding me???well there is your record LOL Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted February 25, 2014 Report Share Posted February 25, 2014 ^Indiana, I'd be pleasantly surprised if those type of totals ended up coming into fruition... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WBadgersW Posted February 26, 2014 Report Share Posted February 26, 2014 Im Liking the potential. Also happy that "King" Euro hasn't been king this year. Hopefully we can get some snow. I'm sick of looking at the black snow on the side of the roads. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Madtown Posted February 26, 2014 Report Share Posted February 26, 2014 trying so hard not to get pumped up about this one or two or three as my hopes and dreams have been crushed enough this winter. my call as of now 4" fri-sunday Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DominicR Posted February 26, 2014 Report Share Posted February 26, 2014 00z NAM is a little more widespread with 3-5 inches but 6+ band is furthur NW with 1st wave. Nuttin to complain as I expect wobbles to continue. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Money Posted February 26, 2014 Author Report Share Posted February 26, 2014 SREF is nearly 7 IN here with 4 10+ and every member but 2 having 4+ here. Looking good for a nice snowfall on FRI/SAT Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DominicR Posted February 26, 2014 Report Share Posted February 26, 2014 SREF is nearly 7 IN here with 4 10+ and every member but 2 having 4+ here. Looking good for a nice snowfall on FRI/SAT How about ORD? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Trinomial Posted February 26, 2014 Report Share Posted February 26, 2014 Hey Dominic, What's the timing for the first wave for our area? Are we thinking Friday afteroon - late friday night? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Iowawx Posted February 26, 2014 Report Share Posted February 26, 2014 00Z GFS out to hour 30. I hope its stronger this run. Would love to see 10+ here. Maybe it can go back to what it was showing 24 hours ago. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Money Posted February 26, 2014 Author Report Share Posted February 26, 2014 How about ORD? Mean 2.76 4 members 4+. Highest is 6.5 Lowest is 0.33 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DominicR Posted February 26, 2014 Report Share Posted February 26, 2014 Hey Dominic, What's the timing for the first wave for our area? Are we thinking Friday afteroon - late friday night? Not sure. Just started getting into that 1st wave. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted February 26, 2014 Report Share Posted February 26, 2014 Skilling just showed the snow starting around 4:00pm Friday for N IL...would hit right around rush hour. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Iowawx Posted February 26, 2014 Report Share Posted February 26, 2014 00Z GFS is weak for the first wave. Now on to the 2nd wave. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Money Posted February 26, 2014 Author Report Share Posted February 26, 2014 GFS way weaker with the 1st wave. Barely showing 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Iowawx Posted February 26, 2014 Report Share Posted February 26, 2014 Maybe a little slower this run??? Starting to look good by hour 90. Just starting to approach Western Iowa. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
East Dubzz Posted February 26, 2014 Report Share Posted February 26, 2014 Skilling just showed the snow starting around 4:00pm Friday for N IL...would hit right around rush hour.Both GFS and NAM don't have it starting until after 6:00 PM for the Chicago area. And as others have said, GFS much weaker with the first wave. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted February 26, 2014 Report Share Posted February 26, 2014 Both GFS and NAM don't have it starting until after 6:00 PM for the Chicago area. And as others have said, GFS much weaker with the first wave. 0z GFS starts it this far east at about midnight. 0z NAM just a tad earlier. Only 0.5" for you and me at 81 hours. http://www.instantweathermaps.com/GFS-php/showmap-conussfc.php?run=2014022600&time=PER&var=ASNOWI&hour=081 Quote Mercer Island, 350 ft 2021-2022: 11.6", 02/21 2020-2021: 15.6" 2019-2020: ~10" 2018-2019 winter snowfall total: 29.5" 2017-2018: 9.0", 2016-2017: 14.0" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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