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May 2017 Observations and Discussion


Tom

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Are the April showers going to bring May flowers or maybe snow showers???  In this by polar weather pattern that has set up this Spring, you can't discount any curve balls mother nature throws at ya.  

During the 1st week of May, the northern tier may see not 1, but 2 wintry systems!  Here is the 1st one from the 06z GFS...

 

 

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2017042506/gfs_asnow_ncus_29.png

 

 

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Both the Euro/CFSv2 look chilly for a large part of the U.S.

 

C-OzjHJXkAA6vns.jpg

 

 

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/people/mchen/CFSv2FCST/monthly/images/CFSv2.NaT2m.20170425.201705.gif

 

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/people/mchen/CFSv2FCST/monthly/images/CFSv2.NaPrec.20170425.201705.gif

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I don't have access to the Euro precip maps, but the 12z looks like a snowy cutter here on May 1. 850s would definitely indicate snow. Yikes. Now several of the major globals showing this.

Yup, the 12z looks like a very strong neg tilted trough and the ULL feature tracking near your back yard...

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/ecmwf/2017042512/ecmwf_z500a_us_7.png

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Yup, the 12z looks like a very strong neg tilted trough and the ULL feature tracking near your back yard...

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/ecmwf/2017042512/ecmwf_z500a_us_7.png

Might have to start looking at May snowfall records here. Just for kicks at this point. But could my biggest snowfall event of the year happen in May?? Lol.

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We won't be seeing any accumulating snow, but the euro keeps much of Iowa in the 30s to low 40s behind the system on Monday... very windy and showery, too.  All my plants will be seeing a lot of garage time over the next week.

season snowfall: 34.8"

'22-23: 30.2"      '21-22: 27.1"      '20-21: 52.5"      '19-20: 36.2"      '18-19: 50.2"      '17-18: 39.5"

Average snowfall: ~30"

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MPX taking notice. The CIPS analog mean snowfall from this morning showed at least several inches over the Twin Cities.

 

Looks like around 1" of precip depending on what model you look at. Even with low ratios that would yield a decent snow event. Still a ways to go but I'm starting to root for this.

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Forecast models are tanking the NAO/AO just as we flip the calendar into May...looking like at least through the first 10 days of the month will be cooler in the Central/Eastern CONUS.

 

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/pna/nao.sprd2.gif

 

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/daily_ao_index/ao.sprd2.gif

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Forecast models are tanking the NAO/AO just as we flip the calendar into May...looking like at least through the first 10 days of the month will be cooler in the Central/Eastern CONUS.

 

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/pna/nao.sprd2.gif

 

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/daily_ao_index/ao.sprd2.gif

 

Nice winter pattern setting up - uggh! Just when I tell my daughter that May is rarely crappy - figures!

Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 52.8" (89% Normal Season)  Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13)   Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.1 Apr: 0.0

Avg = 59.2"  (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" 

Avg = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5"   2021-22 = 35.6"    

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"   2019-20 = 48.0"   2018-19 = 56.1"   2017-18 = 68.3"    2016-17 = 52"    2015-16 = 57.4"    2014-15 = 55.3"    2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"    2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

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The beat goes on....

 

Tom has there ever been a winter storm thread in May? If the trends hold until tomorrow night or Friday morning I may start one. It's on my bucket list LOL!

Sure thing.  Go for it!

 

That GEM is eerily similar imby to May 1, 2013.

It's fascinating to me that you mentioned this analog.  Over the past few days on my down time, I have been studying and researching climate cycles by various scientists and met's.  What stands out to me after reading some material about what we may be expecting in U.S. Winters going forward, is a period of much colder winters that may start next cold season...similar to '13 -'14 & '14 -'15.  If this storm verifies (even if it doesn't snow as much) it may be a repeating harmonic cycle similar to what happened in May '13 which lead us to the very cold consecutive winters.  

 

Of note also, it was a very cold and stormy arctic summer of 2013 which allowed less sea ice melt that season.  Having said that, the CFSv2 is forecasting another very cool arctic summer.  Is nature giving us hints???  Just a thought and felt in may be something we should monitor going forward in time.

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I didn't recall this event, probably because I lived in Chicago at the time. But I looked it up and over 12" fell in parts of SE MN and Iowa. Wowzers.

My parents live in Red Wing, MN. I was actually there a few days later helping them move into their house during that storm, and it was unreal. That town got rekt. They have some pretty good pictures of it, they clocked 17" at their place. My dad said it was the most thunder and lightning he's ever seen with snow. These snow storms this late in the year are insane, I hope it happens again

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Sure thing. Go for it!

 

It's fascinating to me that you mentioned this analog. Over the past few days on my down time, I have been studying and researching climate cycles by various scientists and met's. What stands out to me after reading some material about what we may be expecting in U.S. Winters going forward, is a period of much colder winters that may start next cold season...similar to '13 -'14 & '14 -'15. If this storm verifies (even if it doesn't snow as much) it may be a repeating harmonic cycle similar to what happened in May '13 which lead us to the very cold consecutive winters.

 

Of note also, it was a very cold and stormy arctic summer of 2013 which allowed less sea ice melt that season. Having said that, the CFSv2 is forecasting another very cool arctic summer. Is nature giving us hints??? Just a thought and felt in may be something we should monitor going forward in time.

Thats interesting stuff. I remember it started snowing early the following cold season. First flakes imby of the 13-14 season was Sept 27 and my first 1" snowfall was Oct 22. Ill take a repeat!
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My parents live in Red Wing, MN. I was actually there a few days later helping them move into their house during that storm, and it was unreal. That town got rekt. They have some pretty good pictures of it, they clocked 17" at their place. My dad said it was the most thunder and lightning he's ever seen with snow. These snow storms this late in the year are insane, I hope it happens again

That's awesome! Looks like Dodge Center, MN (just west of Rochester) received 15.2" on May 2, 2013 which is the official max daily snowfall anywhere in MN in the month of May and the max monthly snowfall in MN in the month of May. Very, very impressive.

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Looks like the 12z Euro is targeting E NE/W IA/MN with potential rain to snow mix.  Heaviest accumulations over W MN, MSP riding on the edge with heaviest snows just NW in the intense defo band.  Arrowhead does well this run it looks like.

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Sure thing. Go for it!

 

It's fascinating to me that you mentioned this analog. Over the past few days on my down time, I have been studying and researching climate cycles by various scientists and met's. What stands out to me after reading some material about what we may be expecting in U.S. Winters going forward, is a period of much colder winters that may start next cold season...similar to '13 -'14 & '14 -'15. If this storm verifies (even if it doesn't snow as much) it may be a repeating harmonic cycle similar to what happened in May '13 which lead us to the very cold consecutive winters.

 

Of note also, it was a very cold and stormy arctic summer of 2013 which allowed less sea ice melt that season. Having said that, the CFSv2 is forecasting another very cool arctic summer. Is nature giving us hints??? Just a thought and felt in may be something we should monitor going forward in time.

I think you're right on the money. We're coming off a set of years not dissimilar to 2011-12 and 12-13. I loved the summer of 13-14. I was rarely over 92 except a week in late July-Early August.

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I think you're right on the money. We're coming off a set of years not dissimilar to 2011-12 and 12-13. I loved the summer of 13-14. I was rarely over 92 except a week in late July-Early August.

If things shake out just right, your summer will be prime this season with active weather and cooler temps as we head into June/July.  August is usually a tough month to forecast and normally is the warmest month of the summer season.

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GEFS/CFSv2 block up the northern latitudes for what looks like the whole month of May.  Certainly will spell a cooler and unsettled weather pattern for the lower 48.  Latest single run on the CFSv2 is showing a very cool nation as a whole which we have not seen in a very long time.

 

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/people/mchen/CFSv2FCST/monthly/images/CFSv2.NaT2m.20170427.201705.gif

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GEFS/CFSv2 block up the northern latitudes for what looks like the whole month of May. Certainly will spell a cooler and unsettled weather pattern for the lower 48. Latest single run on the CFSv2 is showing a very cool nation as a whole which we have not seen in a very long time.

 

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/people/mchen/CFSv2FCST/monthly/images/CFSv2.NaT2m.20170427.201705.gif

Where was this pattern during the Winter?!
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12z NAM in lala land...sweet looking defo band right over St Paul...

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/namconus/2017042712/namconus_ref_frzn_ncus_52.png

 

 

 

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/namconus/2017042712/namconus_asnow_ncus_29.png

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If things shake out just right, your summer will be prime this season with active weather and cooler temps as we head into June/July. August is usually a tough month to forecast and normally is the warmest month of the summer season.

True. August acts like a shoulder month here in terms of what the weather can do sometimes. Safest play in my area is to go with probably +1 or 2f and 2.5 inches of rain. Only 2 in 8 years really differs really far from that. I think August wins my vote for least favorite month. Lol

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Both Euro/GFS are showing another pretty big storm over the OV Day 9/10...TBH, they are pretty much in very good agreement for being this far out...

 

 

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/ecmwf/2017042712/ecmwf_z500a_us_10.png

 

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2017042712/gfs_z500a_us_37.png

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Boy, after this first huge wet system and another one over the southeast and east coast later next week, there will barely be any drought areas left in the entire country.  Even abnormally dry areas will be few and far between.

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season snowfall: 34.8"

'22-23: 30.2"      '21-22: 27.1"      '20-21: 52.5"      '19-20: 36.2"      '18-19: 50.2"      '17-18: 39.5"

Average snowfall: ~30"

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Happy May 1st!  Looking forward to this month.  Not only is it my B day month, but I have a lot of work related business that will be transpiring and hopefully making it that much enjoyable.  Lot's going on.

 

I find it interesting how JB has analog-ed this past big weekend system to Easter of '76 and the next big system in the east with another '76 analog.  It has snowed a ton out in the Plains over the past couple days and its snowing currently in parts of NE/MN on May 1st which could analog May 1st 2013.  How did those following winters set up in '76-'77 and '13-'14???  Well, let's just hope we can see a blend of the 2 next cold season.

 

Meantime, both GFS/EURO showing possible frost/freezes near the Lakes next Sun/Mon as the -NAO pattern wrecking havoc on what that storm system will do.

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Some thoughts, in the summer of '76 we were coming off a moderate to borderline strong Nina during the previous winter and ended up with ENSO neutral conditions for the summer of '76.  By the Autumn of '76, ENSO 3.4 region averaged around +0.7C which is about what the CFSv2 is forecasting.  It was also a central based Modiki El Nino.  Something to ponder on as we roll into the summer season (sooner rather than later for ya'll in the Plains/Midwest/Lakes).

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CPC's take for the month of May...

 

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/long_range/lead14/off15_temp.gif

 

 

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/long_range/lead01/off01_prcp.gif

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The GFS and Euro both have a pretty awful-looking omega block pattern locking in over the next ten days for folks out east.  Farther west, we would be in a good spot for pleasant, dry weather, if not overly warm.  Even temps a bit below average are pretty nice in May.

season snowfall: 34.8"

'22-23: 30.2"      '21-22: 27.1"      '20-21: 52.5"      '19-20: 36.2"      '18-19: 50.2"      '17-18: 39.5"

Average snowfall: ~30"

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