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May 2017 Observations and Discussion


Tom

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I love those maps. If they keep looking like that thru June-July, I'll probably re-up my WxBell subscription soon. Need to win a good poker tournament again first though before I'll do that. Lol.

I agree. The CFSv2 did very well as far as forecasting the arctic temps over the summer last year and into the Fall. We just need next years north Pacific pattern to play ball.

 

Did you get hit by the severe storms last week?? Parts of E OK got hit pretty good.

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Skilling's team is forecasting upper 80's back home on Tuesday!  Pretty impressive warmth on the way as well as severe wx chances on Wednesday for the area.  Nice stretch of summer time weather for you guys out that way.

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I believe the CPC updates their Seasonal Outlook later this week on Thursday.  Will post them as they update.  Looking forward to seeing their official summer outlook as well as how the Autumn is trending.  For reference, here is their recent Summer and Autumn outlooks so we can gauge how they will trend later this week.

 

 

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I agree. The CFSv2 did very well as far as forecasting the arctic temps over the summer last year and into the Fall. We just need next years north Pacific pattern to play ball.

 

Did you get hit by the severe storms last week?? Parts of E OK got hit pretty good.

Got hit by several rounds of storms last week. Luckily several of the storms were weakening slightly as they were passing or it would have been pretty exciting.

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This has turned out to be a great Mother’s day weather wise. With brilliant sunshine and temperatures in the upper 60’s to low 70’s Off to our north while still sunny the temperatures are cooler to colder with temps in the 50’s and low 60’s in norther lower to the low 40’s to mid 50’s in upper Michigan. Looking ahead we look to get warm (mid 80’s) and then cold (frost and freezing temps?) I might have to cover the tomato plants the week of the 22nd. we shall see.

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Hope everyone had an enjoyable Mother's Day weekend!  Thank goodness mother nature cooperated for pretty much all of our members.  However, as we begin a new work week nature will switch gears and fire up the cylinders and ignite the atmosphere.  The northern plains have been very dry over the past few weeks but now parts of MN/WI are trending very wet over the next 10 days.

 

C_3y62lWsAAoLGd.jpg

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I have been worried about a cooler and possible unsettled pattern heading into Memorial Day weekend for the Lakes region.  Both EPS/GEFS are starting to illustrate a big trough by Day 9.

 

00z EPS...

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/ecmwf-ens/2017051500/ecmwf-ens_z500a_namer_10.png

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/ecmwf-ens/2017051500/ecmwf-ens_z500a_namer_11.png

 

 

Resulting 850's are largely below normal next week...

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/ecmwf-ens/2017051500/ecmwf-ens_T850a_namer_11.png

 

 

 

We'll see how things shake out but the farther north you go towards the Lakes it may be drier under a cool Canadian HP.  Great bon fire weather???

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The first half of May has been on the cool side in the state of Michigan Even after 6 days in a row of above average temperatures (at Grand Rapids) the first half of May has been well below average across the state. Here are Michigan’s the current departures from average. Grand Rapids -4.0° Lansing -3.6° Muskegon -3.7° Detroit -5.1° ° Flint -4.3° Saginaw -3.9°  Alpena -3.1° Houghton Lake -3.5° The Sault -2.4° and Marquette -4.7° We shall see if the 2nd half can make up this difference.

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This has turned out to be a great Mother’s day weather wise. With brilliant sunshine and temperatures in the upper 60’s to low 70’s Off to our north while still sunny the temperatures are cooler to colder with temps in the 50’s and low 60’s in norther lower to the low 40’s to mid 50’s in upper Michigan. Looking ahead we look to get warm (mid 80’s) and then cold (frost and freezing temps?) I might have to cover the tomato plants the week of the 22nd. we shall see.

 

And, with the nicer temps and sunshine has come the flip from extreme wet to totally dry. 10 days and counting without rain and tonight's chance has faded to the point I've written off anything beyond a pavement dampening and wouldn't be surprised with a total whiff. Grass is still green so normally I'd be fine except for my turf transplanting. Having to keep it watered is kind of annoying after how wet this spring was up til the 5th :lol:

Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 52.8" (89% Normal Season)  Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13)   Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.1 Apr: 0.0

Avg = 59.2"  (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" 

Avg = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5"   2021-22 = 35.6"    

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"   2019-20 = 48.0"   2018-19 = 56.1"   2017-18 = 68.3"    2016-17 = 52"    2015-16 = 57.4"    2014-15 = 55.3"    2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"    2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

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The first half of May has been on the cool side in the state of Michigan Even after 6 days in a row of above average temperatures (at Grand Rapids) the first half of May has been well below average across the state. Here are Michigan’s the current departures from average. Grand Rapids -4.0° Lansing -3.6° Muskegon -3.7° Detroit -5.1° ° Flint -4.3° Saginaw -3.9°  Alpena -3.1° Houghton Lake -3.5° The Sault -2.4° and Marquette -4.7° We shall see if the 2nd half can make up this difference.

 

Wow, I knew it was bad, but in Marshall the last 3 days were 69, 73, and a toasty 74 yesterday. Not a huge amount above our normal highs, but it sure has felt like it with the misery that was early May. Your departure values just confirm how horrible it was to still be that low! Ugly, ugly start to my fave warm season month

Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 52.8" (89% Normal Season)  Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13)   Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.1 Apr: 0.0

Avg = 59.2"  (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" 

Avg = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5"   2021-22 = 35.6"    

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"   2019-20 = 48.0"   2018-19 = 56.1"   2017-18 = 68.3"    2016-17 = 52"    2015-16 = 57.4"    2014-15 = 55.3"    2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"    2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

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Hope everyone had an enjoyable Mother's Day weekend!  Thank goodness mother nature cooperated for pretty much all of our members.  However, as we begin a new work week nature will switch gears and fire up the cylinders and ignite the atmosphere.  The northern plains have been very dry over the past few weeks but now parts of MN/WI are trending very wet over the next 10 days.

 

C_3y62lWsAAoLGd.jpg

 

That paltry green shading over extreme SWMI would continue the dryness in progress. Need to get lucky and at least reach the blue threshold over a 10 day period. Seems we've fought a mini-drought around this time the past few early summers. In 2012, I had .50" of nice soaking strati-form rain on June 1st, then not a drop for weeks! So hate that kind of pattern imbalance. 

Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 52.8" (89% Normal Season)  Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13)   Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.1 Apr: 0.0

Avg = 59.2"  (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" 

Avg = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5"   2021-22 = 35.6"    

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"   2019-20 = 48.0"   2018-19 = 56.1"   2017-18 = 68.3"    2016-17 = 52"    2015-16 = 57.4"    2014-15 = 55.3"    2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"    2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

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Another '76 analog??? Just saw the local wx segment on TV and they said the strongest wind gust recorded in PHX was 86mph on 7/7/76 from a Monsoon! Intriguing.

 

FWIW, climate models are indicating an active Monsoon around these parts for the summer.

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Chitown will be warmer than PHX today...bonus weather for me out here with a high of 75F.  You could say it may be a bit hot and humid with temps in the upper 80's back home.  Enjoy the storms that fire up today!

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Very impressive snows expected later this work week for the slopes near Aspen/Vail/Breckenridge.  00z EPS showing max 20" amounts just east of there.  I drove through this area last November and I'm imagining how it will look like with all the new fallen snow.

 

C_8W7YNV0AA-0eW.jpg

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Swing-n-a-miss on rainfall in Marshall overnight (as feared). About 9:20 there was a nice line coming onshore but it split apart and fizzled before reaching mby. Heard several rumbles of thunder even, it was that close, but alas - nada. GRR's bullish on the weekend system dropping a potential 1" qpf so we'll see how that looks as we get closer.

Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 52.8" (89% Normal Season)  Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13)   Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.1 Apr: 0.0

Avg = 59.2"  (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" 

Avg = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5"   2021-22 = 35.6"    

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"   2019-20 = 48.0"   2018-19 = 56.1"   2017-18 = 68.3"    2016-17 = 52"    2015-16 = 57.4"    2014-15 = 55.3"    2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"    2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

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Another '76 analog??? Just saw the local wx segment on TV and they said the strongest wind gust recorded in PHX was 86mph on 7/7/76 from a Monsoon! Intriguing.

 

FWIW, climate models are indicating an active Monsoon around these parts for the summer.

If this verifies, could also mean a very nice and cool summer to the east of the monsoonal areas. I'm seeing many indicators that this could be a really cool and beautiful summer for a lot of us. (If you don't like extreme heat.)

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CPC is showing a huge area of below normal temps after a week of summer fun...Memorial Day weekend is not looking fun, esp if you look at the 12z Euro and what its showing for Day 9/10 as there is likely a re-amplifying trough swinging through.

 

 

 

 

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/610day/610temp.new.gif

 

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/814day/814temp.new.gif

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CPC is showing a huge area of below normal temps after a week of summer fun...Memorial Day weekend is not looking fun, esp if you look at the 12z Euro and what its showing for Day 9/10 as there is likely a re-amplifying trough swinging through.

 

 

 

 

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/610day/610temp.new.gif

 

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/814day/814temp.new.gif

 

We've already been hotter than the entire summer of '92. I've been there, done that. May might finish below normal overall, but let's get a decent summer before jumping into an early autumn

Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 52.8" (89% Normal Season)  Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13)   Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.1 Apr: 0.0

Avg = 59.2"  (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" 

Avg = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5"   2021-22 = 35.6"    

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"   2019-20 = 48.0"   2018-19 = 56.1"   2017-18 = 68.3"    2016-17 = 52"    2015-16 = 57.4"    2014-15 = 55.3"    2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"    2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

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We've already been hotter than the entire summer of '92. I've been there, done that. May might finish below normal overall, but let's get a decent summer before jumping into an early autumn

I'm already planning my return after Memorial Day weekend. If not the weekend after, then sometime during the first week of June. The heat is gonna be turned up over here so it's time to go!

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Oh yeahhhhh............massive T-Storm complex moving in!! Should be storming within a half hour. Hit 90 today and humid and windy. Out on the deck this evening grilling chicken and potatoes and watching the storm build. Love this kinda weather. Currently in a Severe T-Storm Watch til 3am. Reports of 70mph wind and half-dollar sized hail in W IA this evening!
​Friday-Tuesday they are talking 60s with many rain chances. Fall is coming! :P

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Oh yeahhhhh............massive T-Storm complex moving in!! Should be storming within a half hour. Hit 90 today and humid and windy. Out on the deck this evening grilling chicken and potatoes and watching the storm build. Love this kinda weather. Currently in a Severe T-Storm Watch til 3am. Reports of 70mph wind and half-dollar sized hail in W IA this evening!

​Friday-Tuesday they are talking 60s with many rain chances. Fall is coming! :P

That's what I'm talking about!  The smell of summer in combo with mother nature...can't get any better...enjoy!

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GFS is fairly cool and active mid-longe range. Doesnt look like we are gonna hit 90 again for a while.

No kidding.  It's showing a cut-off low spinning in the region for MDW with highs in the upper 50's to near 60 for a lot of peeps. 

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Who wants to head to the foothills just north of Denver???  3-4 Feet of snow!

 

Today
Snow showers likely, mainly after 3pm. Some thunder is also possible. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 39. Breezy, with a west southwest wind 8 to 18 mph, with gusts as high as 30 mph. Chance of precipitation is 60%. Total daytime snow accumulation of 1 to 2 inches possible.
Tonight
Snow showers. Some thunder is also possible. Low around 21. West wind 7 to 10 mph becoming northeast after midnight. Winds could gust as high as 16 mph. Chance of precipitation is 90%. New snow accumulation of 8 to 12 inches possible.
Thursday
Snow. Temperature rising to near 25 by 8am, then falling to around 21 during the remainder of the day. Northeast wind 11 to 14 mph, with gusts as high as 22 mph. Chance of precipitation is 90%. New snow accumulation of 10 to 16 inches possible.
Thursday Night
Snow. Low around 17. Blustery, with a north northeast wind 14 to 22 mph, with gusts as high as 34 mph. Chance of precipitation is 90%. New snow accumulation of 10 to 16 inches possible.
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And, with the nicer temps and sunshine has come the flip from extreme wet to totally dry. 10 days and counting without rain and tonight's chance has faded to the point I've written off anything beyond a pavement dampening and wouldn't be surprised with a total whiff. Grass is still green so normally I'd be fine except for my turf transplanting. Having to keep it watered is kind of annoying after how wet this spring was up til the 5th :lol:

 

Gotta correct my prior "tweet" (lol). Thought we'd been totally snubbed on rainfall after the 5th, but later remembered that we did score an overnight ~0.4" around the 9th or 10th. That's the main reason the lawns are holding their own up til now. I did notice the x-way median starting to go brown (already in MAY!) just before that storm cell the other night gave a decent drink west of Kzoo. Y'all are prolly thinking I'm a bit goofy for harping on the non-stop wet pattern that brought flooded basements, then within 2 weeks harping on the dry streak. And maybe I am a bit, lol...I'll just keep watering every evening and hope for this weekend's forecast to bring one good soaking of at least 0.5" to relieve me of the chore.. :lol:

.

Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 52.8" (89% Normal Season)  Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13)   Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.1 Apr: 0.0

Avg = 59.2"  (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" 

Avg = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5"   2021-22 = 35.6"    

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"   2019-20 = 48.0"   2018-19 = 56.1"   2017-18 = 68.3"    2016-17 = 52"    2015-16 = 57.4"    2014-15 = 55.3"    2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"    2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

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@ Tom

 

Seeing snow at elevation in summer is pretty neat stuff. I remember my first time was July of '99 crossing over some pass in Wyoming. It had been a long hot and dry warm season back home in S. Bend and seemed crazy that there was still deep deep banks and drifts along the highway. Got foggy up there too, like you went up into the clouds. I did not stop and get out though, we were on "summer vacation" not a skiing trip ;)

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Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 52.8" (89% Normal Season)  Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13)   Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.1 Apr: 0.0

Avg = 59.2"  (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" 

Avg = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5"   2021-22 = 35.6"    

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"   2019-20 = 48.0"   2018-19 = 56.1"   2017-18 = 68.3"    2016-17 = 52"    2015-16 = 57.4"    2014-15 = 55.3"    2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"    2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

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@ OKwx...according to the 12z GFS...the start of the holiday weekend in the upper 60's???  Bonus bon fire weather for you!

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2017051712/gfs_T2m_scus_38.png

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KBEH here in St. Joe hit 87º yesterday evening despite the lake. That's cooking, especially considering we had low 40's for a high less than 2 wks ago.

Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 52.8" (89% Normal Season)  Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13)   Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.1 Apr: 0.0

Avg = 59.2"  (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" 

Avg = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5"   2021-22 = 35.6"    

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"   2019-20 = 48.0"   2018-19 = 56.1"   2017-18 = 68.3"    2016-17 = 52"    2015-16 = 57.4"    2014-15 = 55.3"    2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"    2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

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Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 52.8" (89% Normal Season)  Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13)   Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.1 Apr: 0.0

Avg = 59.2"  (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" 

Avg = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5"   2021-22 = 35.6"    

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"   2019-20 = 48.0"   2018-19 = 56.1"   2017-18 = 68.3"    2016-17 = 52"    2015-16 = 57.4"    2014-15 = 55.3"    2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"    2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

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