May 2017 Observations and Discussion

[james1976]

Got rocked here. Trees and power lines down. My yard is covered. Gonna be a lot of bonfires.

Neighbor said a barn came down and killed someone and a semi flipped over and the driver died. I havent heard any official word but very sad situation if true.

[Tom]

Surprised the line of storms held together as they approached Chicago last night.  The storms ended up producing 60+mph winds, no hail, and not too much damage.  In other news, with all the high latitude blocking developing, a big trough will become established this weekend into the end of May.

 

00z EPS...

 

[Tom]

That is a huge pool of cool in the 8-14 day range...

 

[Tom]

If your a fan of cooler weather, the CPC has issued it's outlook for June and it trended cooler overall from last months run.  A larger looking "troughy" pattern in the central CONUS.  Given the pattern we have seen since last October, more storms will likely be coming off the PAC and keeping the active pattern alive for the inter-mountain west.  Summer time snows???

 

 

 

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/long_range/t14.2c.gif

 

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/long_range/p14.2c.gif

[jaster220]

Surprised the line of storms held together as they approached Chicago last night.  The storms ended up producing 60+mph winds, no hail, and not too much damage.  In other news, with all the high latitude blocking developing, a big trough will become established this weekend into the end of May.

 

00z EPS...

 

 

 

That is a huge pool of cool in the 8-14 day range...

 

 

Bi-polar May looks to be a lock. First 1/3 highs 20º below norms, middle 1/3 highs as much as 20º above norms, and now back in the tank temps-wise. Enjoying this current hot spell as a nice preview of summer conditions. But, per your June outlook post, the 3-5 day hot spells surrounded by cool-ish wx might be our theme for the season.

[Tom]

Bi-polar May looks to be a lock. First 1/3 highs 20º below norms, middle 1/3 highs as much as 20º above norms, and now back in the tank temps-wise. Enjoying this current hot spell as a nice preview of summer conditions. But, per your June outlook post, the 3-5 day hot spells surrounded by cool-ish wx might be our theme for the season.

Intermittent warmer periods in this pattern seems like a lock.  Wonder if the anti-cyclonic heat dome ever ends up showing it's face this summer.  Probably more so down in the SE US where they are experiencing a persistent drought.  If it does develop over there, then the southerly flow out of the GOM dragging moisture into the central U.S. in combination of a persistent storm track coming off the PAC will provide a stormy regime for the heart of summer in the Plains/Midwest/Lakes.  I'm actually excited about it.  Vegetation should remain lush and green all summer long.  I don't mind cooler nights at all.  My A/C was working in O/D last year and it needs a break!

[Tom]

Both 12z NAM models are trolling with the idea of some back lash snow Fri/Sat!  What a crazy, bi-polar Spring we have been experiencing.

 

 

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/nam3km/2017051812/nam3km_asnow_ncus_61.png

 

 

 

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/namconus/2017051812/namconus_asnow_ncus_24.png

[gabel23]

Both 12z NAM models are trolling with the idea of some back lash snow Fri/Sat!  What a crazy, bi-polar Spring we have been experiencing.

 

 

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/nam3km/2017051812/nam3km_asnow_ncus_61.png

 

 

 

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/namconus/2017051812/namconus_asnow_ncus_24.png

That would be record breaking and historic!! That's getting very close to my area. 

[jaster220]

Intermittent warmer periods in this pattern seems like a lock.  Wonder if the anti-cyclonic heat dome ever ends up showing it's face this summer.  Probably more so down in the SE US where they are experiencing a persistent drought.  If it does develop over there, then the southerly flow out of the GOM dragging moisture into the central U.S. in combination of a persistent storm track coming off the PAC will provide a stormy regime for the heart of summer in the Plains/Midwest/Lakes.  I'm actually excited about it.  Vegetation should remain lush and green all summer long.  I don't mind cooler nights at all.  My A/C was working in O/D last year and it needs a break!

 

Think I ran mine 2 or 3 times. Nothing like during the summers of 2010/11/12. Gotta be looking at 3+ days of 90's before I'll bother. I don't mind it a bit warm. Last night's 72F low was about perfect with the nice breeze. Hot summers working backwards by memory: 2012, 2011, 2010, 2007, 2005, 1999, 1998, 1995, 1994, 1990, 1988, 1987, 1984, 1983

[james1976]

Is '76 still looking like a good analog?

[jaster220]

Is '76 still looking like a good analog?

 

Hope not. Winter of 76-77 was only great if you lived in a true LES belt. Otherwise, you froze your a$$ off with little fresh snow and zero major storms. Either of the following 2 seasons were way better around these parts.

[james1976]

Hope not. Winter of 76-77 was only great if you lived in a true LES belt. Otherwise, you froze your a$$ off with little fresh snow and zero major storms. Either of the following 2 seasons were way better around these parts.

Ohhh!!! I was thinking 76-77 winter was awesome. Nevermind! Lol

[james1976]

Another large rain/t-storm complex slowly moving in. Gonna be a rainy/cool Friday. Forecast is for low 50s! Only 60s for next week. Looking to be below normal for a while.
​GFS has a never ending trough!

[Tom]

Ohhh!!! I was thinking 76-77 winter was awesome. Nevermind! Lol

It was one of the coldest winters on record for Chicago.  Top 4 I think?  54.1" of snow at ORD.

[Tom]

Epic May snows in the Foothills of the Rockies!

 

[james1976]

Crazy storm system. Heavy snow in the foothills. 42 and rain here! Prolly wont even make it to 50. Im curious what the record low high is.

[Tom]

Winter Wonderland in CO...courtesy of Skilling...31"+ inches and counting since last night...

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

[gabel23]

Pretty epic in Wyoming also! Nebraska high school state track meet started today, pretty chilly but hopefully it stays dry! This is what Wyoming state track meet looked like yesterday, crazy!! 

 

 

[jaster220]

It was one of the coldest winters on record for Chicago.  Top 4 I think?  54.1" of snow at ORD.

 

Pretty sure Chicago did well with a November event, and in general was helped by lake enhancement all season. I doubt DTW had anywhere near 50" that season. That's actually a nice season for ORD and you are correct to get excited for a replay.

 

 

Crazy storm system. Heavy snow in the foothills. 42 and rain here! Prolly wont even make it to 50. Im curious what the record low high is.

 

Another (dry) pneumonia front slid through last evening. 83F yesterday and a horrid 51F today. We should at least get rain with that kinda drop, but it's been wind, wind, wind as our M.O. so far in 2017. Meanwhile storms fired just a few counties south. Sure hope the Sat-Sun rains verify. 

[Tom]

Geeze, 12z GEFS advertising an amplified "winter-like" pattern to close out May and open June.  Wonder if nature is teasing us for next cold season??

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs-ens/2017051912/gfs-ens_z500aMean_namer_11.png

[Tom]

What is interesting, the waters south of the Aleutians continue to cool as the mean trough settles in that region.

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/ocean/cdas-sflux_ssta_global_1.png

 

 

 

NE PAC will warm even farther given the trough/ridge alignment persists in the N PAC...

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/ocean/cdas-sflux_ssta7diff_global_1.png

 

 

ENSO 1.2 is tanking below normal...

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/ocean/nino12.png

[Tom]

Hearing the Euro weeklies are showing widespread below normal temps from the Rockies on east over the next month...

[jaster220]

Hearing the Euro weeklies are showing widespread below normal temps from the Rockies on east over the next month...

So...what you're saying is "that was summer"? Lol. 3 days in the 80's then poof!! And just when I was getting used to it too. 87F at 3 pm yesterday and 52 at 3 pm today! Car thermo was solidly in the 40's most of the day with 44 this morning. Just a slight drop, eh? We did get some cold rain that wasn't forecast. Perhaps a whopping 1/10 of an inch. Better than nada

[Tom]

May 20th...snowing rather heavily in C/N NE...

 

http://www.weather.gov/images/lbf/wxstory/Tab1FileL.png

[Tom]

On the topic of snow, I find it interesting that the Eurasian snow cover is nearing decadal highs.  00z GFS showing a lot more snow on the way over next 10 days!

 

 

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2017052000/gfs_asnow_asia_41.png

[Tom]

More snow pics out of CO!  Courtesy of Skilling...

 

 

 

Check this out! This is Estes Park, Colorado as photographed and relayed to us by Catherine Yoder, who's visiting that area and experienced the snowstorm which hit that are in the past few days! We had reports of some 42" snow accumulations in the Colorado mountains nearby--and received reports of as much as 35" of snow having fallen in sections of Estes Park, which is in the Rockies 66 miles from Denver.

 

 

 

 

[gabel23]

Not official, but I'm sitting at 4.8", give or take a tenth. I have to check my records at school, regardless we have had a very wet week!!

 

[gabel23]

I feel pretty confident with my records, Osceola is 7 miles from me and they picked up 4.84". I'm hoping for a dry couple of weeks, otherwise we could see some pretty significant flooding along the platte river. Wyoming has picked up a tremendous amount of snow this year, if it's still wet and that snowmelt reaches us we could be in a bad situation. Been a while since we have seen significant flooding along the platte in Columbus. 

[gabel23]

The creek that is just north of my town is approaching record level.  

[gabel23]

Lot's of precipitation for a large area, if only this can happen in the winter time........

[gabel23]

May 20th...snowing rather heavily in C/N NE...

 

 

Really impressive snow totals in Colorado and Wyoming, and unusual for this late in May!

[Tom]

Models are trending for a much better looking MDW for a lot of members on here.  Not as cool and dreary from earlier model runs.

[NEJeremy]

Emptied 3.7" out of my rain gauge since Tuesday's storms.

[OKwx2k4]

I don't think I could ask for a better weather day in May.

[jaster220]

Heavy rains (which I slept through) brought Marshall almost 2" from the past 3 days. Needless to say, I've got water in my basement again. How long will it be for the water table to go down, idk tbh. Getting old though..

[james1976]

Still running the furnace on May 22.....

[Tom]

Still running the furnace on May 22.....

Dang, really?  How low did temps get last night?

[james1976]

Dang, really? How low did temps get last night?

It was in the 40s day and night all weekend. Hit 50 yesterday.

[jaster220]

Still running the furnace on May 22.....

 

Same for me, but not continuous. On the warm day/nights we open windows and close the furnace. Then reverse the order when the flip(s) happen. Don't remember having to do that so much as I have this year though. When the high temps are bouncing 30-40 deg's overnight, what do you do? Between that and the over saturated ground, I can surely tell you we've had better spring seasons around here.

[OKwx2k4]

Still running the furnace on May 22.....

I've wanted to run mine a few times even. I like it though. Unless something drastic happens, this is going to seem like one of the shortest summers ever for me. One down side of all this nice cool and wet weather though is that I can basically watch my grass grow right now. Lol.