Summer 2017 Predictions

[Jesse]

Good call. The MJO will be back over the Pacific during the first week of September, and will stay there through at least the first two weeks of the month. Should be a warm/dry month.

Hopefully this warm/dry months ends up like your cool/wet July.

[Phil]

Hopefully this warm/dry months ends up like your cool/wet July.

Well, I didn't forecast a wet July, but I did forecast a torchy August.

[Front Ranger]

Well, I didn't forecast a wet July, but I did forecast a torchy August.

 

 

From first page of this thread.

 

Phil, on 24 May 2017 - 2:49 PM, said:

June: Cool month overall for PNW. Ridging builds offshore early in the month, setting up downstream trough in western US including PNW. Second half of June is a more classic Niña pattern with ridges in the NPAC and SE US, trough axis centered a bit west of the continental divide.

 

July: Normal to slightly warm month in the PNW with a possible warm stretch early or mid month. Poleward shifted NPAC ridge and a -NAO will drive a more meandering flow over NW North America, could be more of a GOA-centered ridge that licks AK/EPO area and forces a few ULLs offshore for a few bouts of westerly/southwesterly flow. Late month flips +EPO.

 

August: Cool month in coastal PNW, more GOA trough, NPAC ridge shifts westward, ridging develops over intermountain west. Could be a stronger UV200 jet compared to normal. Should be a stronger -NAO, too.

[Phil]

 

From first page of this thread.

Phil, on 24 May 2017 - 2:49 PM, said:

Lmao. Dude, I was trolling you with that post. Warm July, cool August, and GOA ridge was in obvious contradiction to everything I've said this summer.

 

I wanted to see if you'd copy my pattern ideas and put your own spin on them, like you usually do. It worked, because you tossed in "offshore ridge" and "August NPAC trough" last minute and busted as a result. Lol.

[Jesse]

Lmao. Dude, I was trolling you with that post. Warm July, cool August, and GOA ridge was in obvious contradiction to everything I've said this summer.

 

I wanted to see if you'd copy my pattern ideas and put your own spin on them, like you usually do. It worked, because you tossed in "offshore ridge" and "August NPAC trough" last minute and busted as a result. Lol.

Nah, I think you were just wrong. Own up to it. People would respect you more.

[Phil]

After months of claiming I forecasted a repeat of 1993's NPAC jet from planet Hoth, how can you take an obvious troll post out of context, and claim the exact opposite?

 

I guarantee you won't find any other hot July/cool August posts from me this year.

[Jesse]

After months of claiming I forecasted a repeat of 1993's NPAC jet from planet Hoth (which I didn't), how could anyone take an obvious troll post out of context, and claim the exact opposite?

 

I guarantee you won't find any other hot July/cool August posts from me this year.

That wasn't a troll post. I remember when you made it and at the time it was presented as a real forecast. You are just backed into a corner right now and acting really weird about it, like usual. Man up.

[Phil]

That wasn't a troll post. I remember when you made it and at the time it was presented as a real forecast. You are just backed into a corner right now and acting really weird about it, like usual. Man up.

Jesse, it was honestly a troll post. Please look at my posts in the March/April/May PNW threads if you don't believe me.

 

I'm done debating over it, though. I've said repeatedly that I'm committed to remaining honest and transparent here, so as long as I'm living up to that, I don't care if you decide to have a field day with my posts, whether warranted or not.

 

Have a good day, my friend.

[Jesse]

Jesse, it was honestly a troll post. Please look at my posts in the March/April/May PNW threads if you don't believe me.

 

I'm done debating over it, though. I've said repeatedly that I'm committed to remaining honest and transparent here, so as long as I'm living up to that, I don't care if you decide to have a field day with my posts, whether warranted or not.

 

Have a good day, my friend.

It's ok to be wrong. You need to get better at it.

[Front Ranger]

Lmao. Dude, I was trolling you with that post. Warm July, cool August, and GOA ridge was in obvious contradiction to everything I've said this summer.

 

No, you copied your own post from the main May thread and put it in here. You obviously weren't trolling. Please stop lying.

[Front Ranger]

Cool. At least we're both on the record now.

 

Weird thing to say right after a troll post!

[Phil]

It's ok to be wrong. You need to get better at it.

Yeah. For some reason, I changed my seasonal forecast for a single afternoon, then changed it back the next day. I should learn to be more stubborn and stick to my ideas no matter what.

 

...

[Phil]

Once again, I'll have to dig up my posts from the preceding weeks and months to refute misguided criticism from the same group of posters. It's like deja-vu all over again.

 

Either I lack the ability to (contextually) express my intentions in an internet forum setting, or I'm just dealing with a few dim lightbulbs. Either way, it's annoying and disheartening.

[Phil]

Some examples from back in April, only a few weeks before I made these posts. I can re-post several more if needs be.

 

I was forecasting a GOA trough at the time, and I was still forecasting it afterwards.

 

I expect a largely zonal/GOA trough pattern to open the warm season, which would increase the full column moisture transport into northwest North America, and deliver more precipitation to the region as a whole. Whatever your local microclimates do is beyond my pay grade.

Tough call IMO. The lackluster dateline convection makes it very difficult to sustain west coast ridging. Until that changes, I'm leaning towards a long term continuation of the GOA trough/zonal flow regime, with the typical intraseasonal burps.

It's funny, because so much of what I was forecasting turned out to be embarrassingly wrong, as the exceptionally warm EPAC and cool IO/WPAC had me fooled into using warm EPAC/cold WPAC analogs. That regime completely reversed in June and shifted everything westward.

[Phil]

There's a ton of bump-trolling material in that thread, given how wrong I was about the continuation of the warm EPAC circulation. But instead you guys choose to infatuate yourselves over what is obviously a troll post?

 

Man, this forum sometimes.

[Jesse]

Seek help, Phil.

[Phil]

Seek help, Phil.

You're going to mummify yourself in tinfoil at this rate.

 

Yeah, Jesse, I lied about my entire vacation, randomly reversed my summer forecast for 12hrs, reversed it right back, then I personally set all those fires in western Canada knowing NE winds would push the smoke into the PNW and ruin the heatwave.

 

F**king nutcase.

[Front Ranger]

Whoops, missed that one. Still the overall composite for those years shows a clear cool West (including PNW) and warm east pattern, which is what I'd lean towards.

 

cd75.166.62.76.213.18.6.25.prcp.png

 

It's not working out great from a calendar standpoint thanks to the very warm start to the month, but it does appear that September will be the month that the large scale pattern flips to cool West/warm east. I just had it happening a little earlier.

[Front Ranger]

Phil, if we roll your May analogs forward to the summer, this is what we get. Is this about what you're expecting?

 

cd67.6.172.175.144.19.0.51.prcp.png

 

 

Yeah, essentially a classic Niña look. Exact longitude of the trough axis might verify somewhat farther west/east of the analog mean, but not by enough to change the end result much.

 

Not making anything up.

[Phil]

Not making anything up.

Yeah, in reference to M/J/J. That's what rolling forward into summer implies. That wasn't in reference to J/A/S.

 

I laid out my thoughts repeatedly through the spring/summer, so there should be no confusion here.

[Front Ranger]

Yeah, in reference to M/J/J. That's what rolling forward into summer implies. That wasn't in reference to J/A/S.

 

I laid out my thoughts repeatedly through the spring/summer, so there should be no confusion here.

 

There was no reference to MJJ. May had already happened. The context was clear, the map said June-Sep.

 

Just be honest.

[Phil]

There was no reference to MJJ. May had already happened. The context was clear, the map said June-Sep.

 

Just be honest.

Why are you so confused? I'm telling you exactly what my forecast was. It's my forecast, not yours.

 

I specifically referenced the M/J/J trimonthly throughout the spring and early summer months, as the timeframe I was applying those analogs to. I'm not sure why this is such a challenge for you to comprehend.

[Front Ranger]

You're the one trying to confuse the issue. It was clear. I posted a map using your analogs, the map was for June-Sep, and I asked if that was what you were expecting for the summer.

 

You said yes. Cut and dried.

[Phil]

Do yo understand English?

 

You said "roll forward to the summer".

 

Not "roll forward through the summer".

 

See the difference there? Those analogs were specific to the first half of summer. I clarified this repeatedly. The fact you produced a map that extended them into August and September is your own doing.

[Front Ranger]

1943, 1951, 1995, and most of 2012 were spectacular summers here.

 

1983 and 1993 were volcanic influenced and were pretty terrible until late.  

 

So it will be either a spectacular summer or a terrible summer.   I already knew that.   Can't be both!  

 

 

I don't know what "fantastic" means, so I can't comment on that.

 

It will likely be cooler than average, though.

 

Talking about the summer.

 

Late May...still going with a cool August.

 

Phil, on 24 May 2017 - 2:49 PM, said:

June: Cool month overall for PNW. Ridging builds offshore early in the month, setting up downstream trough in western US including PNW. Second half of June is a more classic Niña pattern with ridges in the NPAC and SE US, trough axis centered a bit west of the continental divide.

 

July: Normal to slightly warm month in the PNW with a possible warm stretch early or mid month. Poleward shifted NPAC ridge and a -NAO will drive a more meandering flow over NW North America, could be more of a GOA-centered ridge that licks AK/EPO area and forces a few ULLs offshore for a few bouts of westerly/southwesterly flow. Late month flips +EPO.

 

August: Cool month in coastal PNW, more GOA trough, NPAC ridge shifts westward, ridging develops over intermountain west. Could be a stronger UV200 jet compared to normal. Should be a stronger -NAO, too.

[Phil]

To reiterate what others have said, you're very slippery. You know very well that was a troll post (hot July/cold August obviously wasn't my forecast).

 

We discussed this over a month ago.

[TT-SEA]

To reiterate what others have said, you're very slippery. You know very well that was a troll post (hot July/cold August obviously wasn't my forecast).

 

We discussed this over a month ago.

 

Trolling and forecasting at the same time gets you in trouble... I know this!   

[Phil]

To prove it was a troll post and not a forecast:

 

Some examples from back in April, only a few weeks before I made these posts. I can re-post several more if needs be.

 

I expect a largely zonal/GOA trough pattern to open the warm season, which would increase the full column moisture transport into northwest North America, and deliver more precipitation to the region as a whole. Whatever your local microclimates do is beyond my pay grade.

Tough call IMO. The lackluster dateline convection makes it very difficult to sustain west coast ridging. Until that changes, I'm leaning towards a long term continuation of the GOA trough/zonal flow regime, with the typical intraseasonal burps.

[Phil]

Lmao. Dude, I was trolling you with that post. Warm July, cool August, and GOA ridge was in obvious contradiction to everything I've said this summer.

[Phil]

So yeah, fake quote, and he knew it.

[Front Ranger]

Trolling and forecasting at the same time gets you in trouble... I know this!   

 

On the other hand, it enables you to claim you were trolling when you change your forecast. Win!!

[Phil]

On the other hand, it enables you to claim you were trolling when you change your forecast. Win!!

So you're saying I changed my forecast for 12hrs, then changed it back?

[Front Ranger]

So you're saying I changed my forecast for 12hrs, then changed it back?

 

I'm saying there's plenty of evidence that you were going for a cool summer overall all the way through May.

[Phil]

I'm saying there's plenty of evidence that you were going for a cool summer overall all the way through May.

Nah, you're just full of it.

 

I've reiterated my forecast to you dozens of times, and I will continue to do so until you drop it.

[Front Ranger]

Nah, you're just full of it.

 

I've reiterated my forecast to you dozens of times, and I will continue to do so until you drop it.

 

 

You can reiterate to your hearts content, buddy. Doesn't matter what you say now, what matters is what you said then.

 

Just be honest.

[Phil]

 

You can reiterate to your hearts content, buddy. Doesn't matter what you say now, what matters is what you said then.

 

Just be honest.

Yeah, I know exactly what I said. Thanks.

 

Apparently you don't, however.

[Front Ranger]

Yeah, I know exactly what I said. Thanks.

 

Apparently you don't, however.

 

The quotes are above. You literally said the summer "would likely be cooler than average" and you agreed with a June-Sep map showing a cooler than average summer.

[Phil]

The quotes are above. You literally said the summer "would likely be cooler than average" and you agreed with a June-Sep map showing a cooler than average summer.

How is that relevant to my forecast for J/A/S?

 

You're just spinning your wheels.

[DareDuck]

So you're saying I changed my forecast for 12hrs, then changed it back?

Just pull up one quote from you from anytime in May or June calling for a warm August/September and this discussion is over.

Edit: Your September forecast in the contest did call for a warmer month.

[Front Ranger]

Just pull up one quote from you from anytime in May or June calling for a warm August/September and this discussion is over.

Edit: Your September forecast in the contest did call for a warmer month.

He eventually went warm late summer, but before summer started his call was for a cool summer overall. That was my point, he's just done everything he can to distract from it.