Jump to content

April 29-May 1 rain/snow?????


gabel23

Recommended Posts

Nothing says May like snow! Snow is falling in the Rockies today with this system as well. NWS says the upper level temps are a 1 in 10 year event. 

  • Like 4

Winter 23-24: Total Snow (3.2")    Total Ice (0.2")     Coldest Low: 1F     Coldest High: 5F

Snow Events: 0.1" Jan 5th, 0.2" Jan 9th, 1.6" Jan 14, 0.2" (ice) Jan 22, 1.3" Feb 12

Link to comment
Share on other sites

OAX sure is paying attention to this weekend! 

 

As closed low moves closer Sunday, forecast soundings suggest a good

chance for a complete changeover to snow in northeast Nebraska, and
at least a mix in all of eastern Nebraska and southwest Iowa. If GFS
and NAM position wins out, dynamics would tend to cool to below
freezing deeper column of air just above the surface, leading to all
snow in more of our area. Will have to see model trends the next
couple of runs to really pin this down, but given widespread QPF
totaling over an inch in eastern Nebraska, if a change to snow does
occur over a wider area, expected duration and rates will lead to
some significant accumulations of heavy and wet snow. For now, the
uncertainty in all of the above factors leads us to maintain only
minor accumulations of snow in northeast Nebraska, with a mention of
rain snow mix over the rest of the area on Sunday.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

18z NAM slowed this system down as well did the 12z Euro compared to yesterday.

Euro has been the western/slower outlier for a few runs....giving pause on the true snowfall potential, at least here. I just read the full AFD from MPX and they think east/weaker might be the way to go. All options on the table apparently.

 

EDIT: well, 18z GFS has a 988 over extreme NW MO at hr 84, so there's that.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Meh.....mostly rain here as it stands now. It could snow pretty good NW of here. It was fun tracking a potential May snow, but just like this winter things just didn't pan out.

Ya, it looks like CO/KS will be the winners here.  All the models are locking in W KS and SE CO with the heaviest snows ATM.

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2017042806/gfs_asnow_scus_11.png

 

 

12z NA3km...

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/nam3km/2017042812/nam3km_asnow_scus_61.png

Link to comment
Share on other sites

SNOW FREE ZONE!!! Yes! :D

Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 52.8" (89% Normal Season)  Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13)   Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.1 Apr: 0.0

Avg = 59.2"  (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" 

Avg = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5"   2021-22 = 35.6"    

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"   2019-20 = 48.0"   2018-19 = 56.1"   2017-18 = 68.3"    2016-17 = 52"    2015-16 = 57.4"    2014-15 = 55.3"    2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"    2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Funny thing is the one model that is still fairly confident for us in LNK is the same model that poo-pooed many of our chances, and that is the in-house RPM model that the local news station uses, giving us 5". Disregarding that as an outlier, looks like we shouldn't be expecting May snowfall. It's severe weather season anyway.

Formerly *ahem*: LNK_Weather, TOL_Weather, FAR_Weather, MSP_Weather, IMoveALot_Weather.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Getting close to my door I know that.....

 

...SIGNIFICANT ACCUMULATIONS OF SNOW ARE POSSIBLE FROM AN

UNUSUALLY COLD SYSTEM...

KSZ005-017-NEZ039-040-046-047-060-061-072>074-082>084-290900-
/O.NEW.KGID.WS.A.0002.170430T0200Z-170501T1100Z/
Phillips-Rooks-Valley-Greeley-Sherman-Howard-Dawson-Buffalo-
Gosper-Phelps-Kearney-Furnas-Harlan-Franklin-
Including the cities of Phillipsburg, Codell, Plainville,
Stockton, Ord, Greeley, Spalding, Scotia, Wolbach, Loup City,
Sherman Reservoir, Litchfield, St. Libory, Lexington, Cozad,
Willow Island, Gothenburg, Kearney, Elwood, Johnson Lake,
Holdrege, Minden, Cambridge, Arapahoe, Oxford, Beaver City,
Hollinger, Alma, Orleans, Franklin, Campbell, and Hildreth
326 PM CDT Fri Apr 28 2017

...WINTER STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FROM SATURDAY EVENING THROUGH
LATE SUNDAY NIGHT...

The National Weather Service in Hastings has issued a Winter
Storm Watch, which is in effect from Saturday evening through
late Sunday night.

* MAIN HAZARD...Heavy wet snow.

* PRECIPITATION ACCUMULATION...Possibly several inches.

* TIMING...Saturday evening through late Sunday night...with the
heaviest snow Sunday afternoon and evening.

* LOCATION...West of Highway 281.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Historic snowstorm heading towards CO/KS and OK/TX Panhandle????

 

C-hkI6_WAAAye29.jpg

 

 

12z WRF...

 

C-hkJ1uXUAE4-SN.jpg

 

That would be historic for a lot of people! Hastings NWS had an interesting write up in this afternoon's discussion, if even half that falls we could be talking some major damage to trees and power lines. 

 

Precip: A very wet system will be in progress Sun and end by dawn

Mon. There are a couple minor/light precip possibilities until Wed

eve...but they will pale in comparison to this weekend.

 

Periods of rain will cont Sat night thru Sun night...but there is

potential for rain to mix with and/or change to snow...possibly

moreso than we currently have depicted in the fcst. We are

especially concerned about Sun afternoon-eve when the deformation

zone pivots over the FA. Precip will probably fall as snow for

much of the day Sun into Sun night. Accumulating snow late in the

spring or fall (when leaves are on the trees) is bad news.

 

We saw how easy this cold air mass produced snow today...

especially along and N of I-80.

 

WATCH REASONING: Ordinarily we have warning or near-warning-lvl

snowfall in the fcst when we issue a Winter Stm Watch (WSW). That

is 6" in 12 hrs or 8" in 24 hrs. Parts of this watch area do not

have 6". However...we have the discretion to issue based on

impacts (or potential impacts).

 

We remain very concerned about the potential for hvy wet snow

mainly Sun afternoon into Sun eve. There are mitigating factors

(warm ground etc). If it difficult for snow to accumulation

during the day at this time of year. This very well may up mostly

melting on contact...but just in case it doesn`t...we don`t want

people to be caught unaware.

 

Svrl inches of hvy/wet snow with so much foliage on the trees

would be devastating with widespread damage and power outages

where trees exist. Much of the greatest tree coverage is in towns

and cities.

 

It is entirely possible the accum does not pan out (which would

be very good) and that much of it will melt on contact. If this

occurs...this will not be a busted fcst. WSW`s only need 50%

confidence. We`ve issued this to highlight the "potential" for

what would be damaging accumulations of snow.

 

In the end...for this fcstr...the cost of not issuing and a major

snowfall occurring is just too great.

 

Please cont to closely monitor the fcst this weekend.

 

One other potential for hazard wx is high winds Sun. Even if we

don`t issue a Winter Wx Advisory or a Winter Storm Warning...we

might need a High Wind Warning for part or most of the FA.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

0.39" here from the Friday disturbance... now just waiting to see how the frontal convection well to the south affects how much moisture makes it up here later today.

season snowfall: 34.8"

'22-23: 30.2"      '21-22: 27.1"      '20-21: 52.5"      '19-20: 36.2"      '18-19: 50.2"      '17-18: 39.5"

Average snowfall: ~30"

Link to comment
Share on other sites

@ Tom

 

#nuts!

 

As of now, mby is riding the line of flood watches by GRR. Keeping everything crossed that this is indeed a near miss. Was just planning to clean up from the water ingress that has taken the past 4 wks to recede.

Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 52.8" (89% Normal Season)  Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13)   Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.1 Apr: 0.0

Avg = 59.2"  (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" 

Avg = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5"   2021-22 = 35.6"    

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"   2019-20 = 48.0"   2018-19 = 56.1"   2017-18 = 68.3"    2016-17 = 52"    2015-16 = 57.4"    2014-15 = 55.3"    2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"    2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

Link to comment
Share on other sites

@ Tom

 

#nuts!

 

As of now,

 

Look at how all those trees and brush are being crushed by the weight of the snow...no bueno!  Wonder if parts of W KS exceed the 1' mark.  Local NWS in those parts still calling for 12"+...we shall see.

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Look at how all those trees and brush are being crushed by the weight of the snow...no bueno!  Wonder if parts of W KS exceed the 1' mark.  Local NWS in those parts still calling for 12"+...we shall see.

Yep, and trees aren't a dime a dozen out there like here in Michigan

  • Like 1

Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 52.8" (89% Normal Season)  Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13)   Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.1 Apr: 0.0

Avg = 59.2"  (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" 

Avg = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5"   2021-22 = 35.6"    

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"   2019-20 = 48.0"   2018-19 = 56.1"   2017-18 = 68.3"    2016-17 = 52"    2015-16 = 57.4"    2014-15 = 55.3"    2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"    2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

Link to comment
Share on other sites

One thing I'm benefiting from this storm are the cooler temps and the crazy winds we had here yesterday.  Blowing dust all day long.  Feels great out there after some recent heat.  The ULL tracked through the 4 corners and brought some light snow into the mountains of eastern AZ, more so in parts of NM though.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

12z NAM-3km....

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/nam3km/2017042912/nam3km_asnow_ncus_60.png

 

 

Trends have been favoring a shift NW with the heavier rains right over my area back home...

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/nam3km/2017042912/nam3km_apcpn_ncus_19.png

Link to comment
Share on other sites

I'm rooting for the NAM for the win! Trends have been to bring this thing further NW, bringing the SLP up through southeast nebraska. I would say that's probably the best bet; all storms this year have taken that track. I need this thing further southeast if I'm going to see any snow. Meanwhile, winter storm warning out for central nebraska. 

 

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE

National Weather Service Hastings NE
438 AM CDT Sat Apr 29 2017

...A strong and unusually cold upper level low pressure system
crossing the Plains will bring the potential for accumulating
snowfall to western portions of the area this weekend.
Precipitation will also be accompanied by strong northerly
winds...

KSZ005-NEZ072-073-082-083-292100-
/O.CON.KGID.WS.W.0004.170430T0600Z-170501T1100Z/
Phillips-Gosper-Phelps-Furnas-Harlan-
Including the cities of Phillipsburg, Elwood, Johnson Lake,
Holdrege, Cambridge, Arapahoe, Oxford, Beaver City, Hollinger,
Alma, and Orleans
438 AM CDT Sat Apr 29 2017

...WINTER STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 1 AM SUNDAY TO
6 AM CDT MONDAY...

* MAIN HAZARD...Heavy wet snow.

* SNOW ACCUMULATION...4 to 6 inches are currently forecast, with
locally higher amounts possible. The highest amounts are
expected to fall across western portions of the area.

* TIMING...Late tonight through late Sunday night. The heaviest
snow is expected to fall during the day Sunday.

* WINDS...North winds of 25 to 35 mph with gusts of 45 to 50 mph
will be possible.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Join the conversation

You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.

Guest
Unfortunately, your content contains terms that we do not allow. Please edit your content to remove the highlighted words below.
Reply to this topic...

×   Pasted as rich text.   Paste as plain text instead

  Only 75 emoji are allowed.

×   Your link has been automatically embedded.   Display as a link instead

×   Your previous content has been restored.   Clear editor

×   You cannot paste images directly. Upload or insert images from URL.

Loading...

×
×
  • Create New...