May 2017 Observations and Model Discussion for the Pacific Northwest

[Jesse]

I don't care too much about thundestorms... unless we need rain. Its just so wet out there. We need a dry pattern.

You just had a nice long break in the Deep South (which is way better than here). Consider yourself lucky being able to travel on a whim, and relax.

[TT-SEA]

Unfortunately, some rain will probably accompany the hail, meaning the day will be completely ruined for Tim.

 

Some large hail would be wonderful too.   

[TT-SEA]

You just had a nice long break in the Deep South (which is way better than here). Consider yourself lucky being able to travel on a whim, and relax.

 

Enter the 4th month now with daily rain... we have lots of things that need to get done.    I don't care about much else right now other than not having water falling from the sky here.

[TT-SEA]

12Z ECMWF shows 1 - 1.5 inches of rain for King County from Thursday afternoon through Friday morning.

[Front Ranger]

Enter the 4th month now with daily rain... we have lots of things that need to get done. I don't care about much else right now other than not having water falling from the sky here.

What is the weather preventing you from doing today?

[Front Ranger]

12Z ECMWF shows 1 - 1.5 inches of rain for King County from Thursday afternoon through Friday morning.

HEAVY drizzle.

[TT-SEA]

What is the weather preventing you from doing today?

 

Work is preventing me... dummy.

 

And then the models show it will be raining again this evening.   As usual.

[TT-SEA]

HEAVY drizzle.

 

Then rain for most of Friday and Saturday as well.

 

Sunday looks a little better though compared to the 00Z run.   Still looks like a drizzly marine layer day until noon though.

[Jbolin]

Then rain for most of Friday and Saturday as well.

 

Sunday looks a little better though compared to the 00Z run.   Still looks like a drizzly marine layer day until noon though.

Just as the sun rises and sets you complain about the rain, no matter the intensity or longevity. You live in a maritime climate where it consistently rains and your location aided by orographics further exacerbates it. 

 

Deal with it or move to one of the many climes for which you avail yourself and family to in times of consistent precipitation.

[BLI snowman]

Some large hail would be wonderful too.   

 

Exciting weather is awful!

[TT-SEA]

Just as the sun rises and sets you complain about the rain, no matter the intensity or longevity. You live in a maritime climate where it consistently rains and your location aided by orographics further exacerbates it. 

 

Deal with it or move to one of the many climes for which you avail yourself and family to in times of consistent precipitation.

 

I don't complain unless its extreme for this area.   And it has been.   This is actually the most persistently wet spring in terms of number of days with rain ever for this area since 1895 when they started keeping records.    Same for SEA.

 

I know there are areas in the rain shadow that have been completely opposite.   Its been so persistent.  

 

Hopefully next week we can actually string together a couple dry days in a row here.    

[Jbolin]

I don't complain unless its extreme for this area.   And it has been.   This is actually the most persistently wet spring in terms of number of days with rain ever for this area since 1895 when they started keeping records.    Same for Seattle.   

I don't disagree after setting rainfall records in back to back years it does get tiresome but what's more tiresome is reading your posts about the constant rain or how much it has rained etc. 

 

You ( I believe ) are the only forum member who who has a knack for describing rain in over 100 different ways just the like the Eskimo's who have over 100 words for snow.

 

We get it, it rains.

[TT-SEA]

I don't disagree after setting rainfall records in back to back years it does get tiresome but what's more tiresome is reading your posts about the constant rain or how much it has rained etc. 

 

You ( I believe ) are the only forum member who who has a knack for describing rain in over 100 different ways just the like the Eskimo's who have over 100 words for snow.

 

We get it, it rains.

 

I am well aware that it rains very often.   That is part of the deal here.    This is record setting persistent and its continuing.   And this is a weather forum.    

 

I wish I could say it was more tiresome to spend a few seconds reading posts on a forum than having over 3 months straight of daily rain.  

 

But I also know its been even worse away from the water and the rain shadow.  

[TT-SEA]

If the 12Z ECMWF verifies... there will 4 dry and very pleasant days in a row next week.     Need to get within 48 hours to believe it though.

 

Massive trough is hanging just offshore the entire time and moves inland at the end of next week.   

[Phil]

Little did those newly-minted Beatles fans know, but we'd never see sustained cold anomalies like that again.

 

In all seriousness though, 1964 was a special year. The SAM (Southern Annular Mode) was also off the charts negative, so the southern hemisphere was out of wack as well. I'd have to imagine Agung played a role in this as well:

 

http://i349.photobucket.com/albums/q363/dmitrik1/1964_SAM_zps0z0vfamk.jpg

 

The SAM is directly correlated to poleward displacement of westerlies in the southern hemisphere, i.e. the more positive, the more poleward are the westerlies. In 1964 they were suppressed equatorward to a much greater degree than any other year since at least 1957.

This is my favorite post of yours so far.

 

The positive long term trends in both the northern and southern annular modes began after the LIA in the 1700s, and this has greatly affected the tropical convection, global circulation, and the planetary heat budget as a whole.

 

As significant as the climate changes have been since the conclusion of the Dalton minimum in the 1800s, the rebound immediately following the LIA was even more consequential, and it explains why sea levels continued to rise through the 1700s and 1800s even during brief episodes of global cooling like the Dalton Minimum and the 1940s-1970s cooling period.

 

This based on the best available C13/O18 proxies:

 

http://i724.photobucket.com/albums/ww243/phillywillie/Mobile%20Uploads/310D77B4-1217-4724-AE93-EB26338130D7_zps3inieh41.jpg

[Phil]

Water of the PNW coast continues to warm... and the pattern certainly looks conducive for this to continue.

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/ocean/cdas-sflux_ssta_global_1.png

Remember that CDAS is running about 0.34C warmer than the other SSTA datasets, globally speaking. So unless you're analyzing SSTA gradients for help with tropical convection, it's probably not the best dataset to use.

[Phil]

Guidance is now predicting the deepest -NAO ever recorded in the month of May, beating the previous record set in 1993. It will cycle back quickly, but this does say a lot about the nature of the wave-train this year.

[Phil]

Just a tad bit of disagreement between the GEFS and GEPS in the extended range with the tropical convection. History favors the GEPS, but the background state favors the GEFS:

 

http://i724.photobucket.com/albums/ww243/phillywillie/Mobile%20Uploads/0A234262-EBA9-4C4E-8F3A-8F64DA83B472_zpslvupxf3p.png

 

http://i724.photobucket.com/albums/ww243/phillywillie/Mobile%20Uploads/FA9FA831-A084-4798-B433-D0EDCDE44E07_zpswr4khkgc.png

 

 

The GEFS solution implies another jet extension/GOA trough during the final third of May, while the GEPS solution implies more of a classic Aleutian Ridge/-PNA type pattern during that time period.

[Timmy Supercell]

Models have definitely been spitting out some intense convective parameters for us on Thursday. The synchronization of the thermal low with the 500mb trough axis offshore could be pretty ideal. You don't see LI's of -7 or -8 very often west of the Cacades.

 

East of the Cascades I don't even often see -7 to -8 Lifted Indexes. During some of my better events in 2014-2015 I had either -3 or -4 at the very best, one time maybe I hit -5 but I don't recall the date. And lately I've noticed a trend last few years I rarely reach about 1500 J/kg surface instability (most of the time it's around 750-1000). I hope we start breaking that trend. Would like to see 2000+ this summer. It's almost been 5 years since downtown K-Falls had a REAL thunderstorm.

[DareDuck]

East of the Cascades I don't even often see -7 to -8 Lifted Indexes. During some of my better events in 2014-2015 I had either -3 or -4 at the very best, one time maybe I hit -5 but I don't recall the date.

I was thinking the same. We really don't often see -7 to -8 LIs east of the Cascades either.

[TT-SEA]

Up to 63 here now... warmer than expected.

[Dave]

Eugene has reached 70 for the first time this year.  Pretty surprising that it occurred on a day with zero sunshine.

[TT-SEA]

Here comes the rain again... to ruin what could be a very pleasant evening right when we are able to get outside.    It seems to find a way to rain almost every evening here.    Maybe not tomorrow... but it will happen on Thursday which will put a damper on the warmest day of the year.   It will not even stay nice long enough to enjoy it when we get out of work and school.   <_>

 

[Front Ranger]

Eugene has reached 70 for the first time this year. Pretty surprising that it occurred on a day with zero sunshine.

Somewhat surprising, but it is a warmer air mass moving in.

 

Plus, zero sunshine does not mean zero sun angles.

[Front Ranger]

Here comes the rain again... to ruin what could be a very pleasant evening right when we are able to get outside. It seems to find a way to rain almost every evening here. Maybe not tomorrow... but it will happen on Thursday which will put a damper on the warmest day of the year. It will not even stay nice long enough to enjoy it when we get out of work and school. <_>

 

Decent chance Thu stays dry longer than you're thinking.

[TT-SEA]

Decent chance Thu stays dry longer than you're thinking.

 

WRF shows rain breaking out starting around 2 p.m.

 

Things go downhill fast that day.  

[Front Ranger]

WRF shows rain breaking out starting around 2 p.m.

 

Things go downhill fast that day.

Euro looks later.

[TT-SEA]

Euro looks later.

 

Not by much.   By time we are ready to get out and enjoy the warmest day of the year... it will likely be dumping rain.   Fitting for 2017 of course.

[Front Ranger]

Not by much.   By time we are ready to get out and enjoy the warmest day of the year... it will likely be dumping rain.   Fitting for 2017 of course.

 

Sounds like your vacation did you good!

[TT-SEA]

Sounds like your vacation did you good!

 

Did not seem to help dry things out here.   

[Jbolin]

That low
level forcing will be combining with an increasingly unstable air
mass -especially by Pacific Northwest standards- to possibly
produce a period of strong thunderstorms from the late afternoon
into the evening hours. In the south interior, the 0-6 km shear
rises to 45 kt, lifted indices fall to -8 to -10, CAPE rises to
2000-3500 J/kg. Large hail is a potential threat with some of the
stronger storms that develop. Note that this is the most unstable
I have seen the models forecast for Western Washington in my past
25 years in this office. Models have been consistent in showing
this for the past several cycles. The Storm Prediction Center
puts southwestern portions of Washington in the "Marginal"
category for severe thunderstorms late Thursday. Certainly this
will be something to watch as we approach the event.

[TT-SEA]

That low

level forcing will be combining with an increasingly unstable air

mass -especially by Pacific Northwest standards- to possibly

produce a period of strong thunderstorms from the late afternoon

into the evening hours. In the south interior, the 0-6 km shear

rises to 45 kt, lifted indices fall to -8 to -10, CAPE rises to

2000-3500 J/kg. Large hail is a potential threat with some of the

stronger storms that develop. Note that this is the most unstable

I have seen the models forecast for Western Washington in my past

25 years in this office. Models have been consistent in showing

this for the past several cycles. The Storm Prediction Center

puts southwestern portions of Washington in the "Marginal"

category for severe thunderstorms late Thursday. Certainly this

will be something to watch as we approach the event.

 

Wow... that is actually interesting.   Going to be a fun day for weather weenies for sure.

[TT-SEA]

12Z ECMWF focuses the activity on Thursday evening right over Seattle.

 

[Front Ranger]

That low

level forcing will be combining with an increasingly unstable air

mass -especially by Pacific Northwest standards- to possibly

produce a period of strong thunderstorms from the late afternoon

into the evening hours. In the south interior, the 0-6 km shear

rises to 45 kt, lifted indices fall to -8 to -10, CAPE rises to

2000-3500 J/kg. Large hail is a potential threat with some of the

stronger storms that develop. Note that this is the most unstable

I have seen the models forecast for Western Washington in my past

25 years in this office. Models have been consistent in showing

this for the past several cycles. The Storm Prediction Center

puts southwestern portions of Washington in the "Marginal"

category for severe thunderstorms late Thursday. Certainly this

will be something to watch as we approach the event.

 

Pretty insane for western WA (western OR as well, though not as insane).

 

Those are the kind of numbers that would probably lead to a tornado watch around here.

[BLI snowman]

WRF shows rain breaking out starting around 2 p.m.

 

Things go downhill fast that day.

Convective precip, not stratiform. Thursday will be plenty nice and warm.

[Jbolin]

Pretty insane for western WA (western OR as well, though not as insane).

 

Those are the kind of numbers that would probably lead to a tornado watch around here.

Did you see the sounding I posted yesterday?

[TT-SEA]

Convective precip, not stratiform. Thursday will be plenty nice and warm.

 

No kidding... but not so nice in the evening.

[Front Ranger]

Did you see the sounding I posted yesterday?

 

Yep.

[Jbolin]

Yep.

So, yea

[wx_statman]

The stories about the PTA, Social Security Benefits, the Pretty, Blond Songbird, and others show how much times have changed.

 

Even within the article about snow, you had the housewife and her stove...