May 2017 Observations and Model Discussion for the Pacific Northwest

[Timmy Supercell]

Precipitable Water reaches 1.25" over PDX on Thursday looking at the current SREF run. Surface CAPE 1500 J/kg up and down the valleys, couple small spots of 1750 J/kg west of the Cascades. LI reaches -5 at peak. -4 in many areas.

[TT-SEA]

Nature messed up... rain is too slow! Filtered sun still and 63 here and I am in the yard. Nice to get a small win once in awhile. I am sure rain will start soon though.

[Timmy Supercell]

Nature messed up... rain is too slow! Filtered sun still and 63 here and I am in the yard. Nice to get a small win once in awhile. I am sure rain will start soon though.

 

You should enjoy Thursday hopefully. T'storms definitely bring a different kind of rain than the typical kinds.

[TT-SEA]

You should enjoy Thursday hopefully. T'storms definitely bring a different kind of rain than the typical kinds.

Yes... but at this point it would be really nice to have the warmest day of the year not crash into heavy rain in the late afternoon. Normally I would be much more interested.

[Jesse]

Yes... but at this point it would be really nice to have the warmest day of the year not crash into heavy rain in the late afternoon. Normally I would be much more interested.

Spoiled pansy.

[Front Ranger]

Yes... but at this point it would be really nice to have the warmest day of the year not crash into heavy rain in the late afternoon. Normally I would be much more interested.

 

Convective precip is much more hit or miss (usually) compared to stratiform, though. Hard to say who will get heavy rain, but probably not everyone, at least for long.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Wonder how Thursday will stack up to June 4, 2009

[TT-SEA]

Spoiled pansy.

 

Shut up.   

[Jesse]

Shut up.

[Jesse]

Wonder how Thursday will stack up to June 4, 2009

I found myself wondering the same thing.

[TT-SEA]

Wonder how Thursday will stack up to June 4, 2009

 

Anything more than pea-sized hail would be quite destructive to the blueberries, apples, and plums right now.  

[Jesse]

Anything more than pea-sized hail would be quite destructive to the blueberries, apples, and plums right now.

I imagine they get some pretty wicked thunderstorms/big hailstones at times in Heaven (Charleston, SC).

[Dave]

Wonder how Thursday will stack up to June 4, 2009

I've mentioned  this before on this forum, but that was another sad frog day for Eugene.  A heavy cell was headed straight for Eugene, but right before it got here it split in two.  One cell to the west went on to produce a tornado.  The other cell to the east had almost golf ball sized hail.  I received one thunder.  That's it.  And I love tstorms.

[Timmy Supercell]

Wonder how Thursday will stack up to June 4, 2009

 

That was also a THURSDAY too! Coincidence....

[Timmy Supercell]

I've mentioned  this before on this forum, but that was another sad frog day for Eugene.  A heavy cell was headed straight for Eugene, but right before it got here it split in two.  One cell to the west went on to produce a tornado.  The other cell to the east had almost golf ball sized hail.  I received one thunder.  That's it.  And I love tstorms.

 

That also kind of happened in the PDX area. The giant squall went into two sections (Washington/Yamhill

and Clackamas/Multnomah

)

 

That was unfortunate. But I did get 55-60 mph outflow winds in Hillsboro and an amazing shelf/roll cloud display.

[Front Ranger]

I imagine they get some pretty wicked thunderstorms/big hailstones at times in Heaven (Charleston, SC).

 

Not to mention this.

 

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=h4_vpeL64ko

[TT-SEA]

I imagine they get some pretty wicked thunderstorms/big hailstones at times in Heaven (Charleston, SC).

So funny... you are insanely defensive about the PNW.

[TT-SEA]

Not to mention this.

 

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=h4_vpeL64ko

Awesome city.

[Jesse]

So funny... you are insanely defensive about the PNW.

Not at all. It's more your compulsive drive to show us how bad we are that's humorous.

[TT-SEA]

Not at all. It's more your compulsive drive to show us how bad we are that's humorous.

 

How bad?   Not sure where I do that.   I praise lots of things about this area.   

 

Good and bad everywhere.   

[Front Ranger]

Awesome city.

Of course it's a nice city. But definitely vulnerable to some nasty, damaging weather.

[wx_statman]

Wonder how Thursday will stack up to June 4, 2009

 

5/21/2006 might be a good analog. S-N moving severe warned storms in the valley. That was a fun evening. 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

That was also a THURSDAY too! Coincidence....

I remember I was fishing at the Wheatland Ferry on the Willamette river that day for smallies. It was hot and muggy. The severe tstorm watch was posted and the rest was history. Impressive storm, very strong winds and almost an inch of rain. Best t storm day ever here was in September 2013 though. Mesoscale convection, intense heavy rain, over 3" and constant thunder for hours.

[Front Ranger]

So funny... you are insanely defensive about the PNW.

 

Most people here are pretty IMBY and rooting for the home team - especially the Portland area.

 

Nothing wrong with that.

[Timmy Supercell]

5/21/2006 might be a good analog. S-N moving severe warned storms in the valley. That was a fun evening. 

 

05/19/1993 also. Described on NCDC Storm Events Database as a "midwest like squall line" in the Willamette Valley. Isolated reports of golfball size hail and high winds.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

5/21/2006 might be a good analog. S-N moving severe warned storms in the valley. That was a fun evening.

I remember that one well too.

[Jesse]

Most people here are pretty IMBY and rooting for the home team - especially the Portland area.

 

Nothing wrong with that.

 

I would say Seattle and Belligham are just as homerish. No need to single a particular area out.

[Jesse]

The drizzly, gloomy transition to this warm pattern, and then the very short lived nature of the warm airmass coming up, is interesting.

 

Brought to mind the mid-May 2008 heatwave. I will never forget sitting under warm frontal drizzle with temps in the 50s then hitting mid-90s a few days later (with an unseasonably muggy airmass, as this one looks to be). This one obviously won't get as warm, but the spike and drop will be even more dramatic.

[Front Ranger]

Here are some of the most picturesque tornado photos ever taken in the western PNW lowlands.

 

First, the EF3 that struck Kent, WA in Dec 1969. 

 

 

Second, the EF-1 that hit Gig Harbor, WA in Jan 2015.

 

 

Third, the EF-2 in Aumsville, OR in Dec 2010.

 

[Front Ranger]

I would say Seattle and Belligham are just as homerish. No need to single a particular area out.

 

 

I was defending you. Now you may be proving Tim's point of being overly defensive.

[Front Ranger]

Then of course we have the devastating trio of twisters that struck Charleston, SC in August 2014.

 

[TT-SEA]

Of course it's a nice city. But definitely vulnerable to some nasty, damaging weather.

 

No kidding.   And downtown Seattle has nicer weather than all of the surrounding areas.   Stating the obvious.  

[VancouverIslandSouth]

Not sure what's so bad about a little rain, this has been a pretty typical spring overall; maybe even a bit below average in the rain shadow. At least other areas have actually had all the activity materialize into substantial rainfall. Here it just turns into a sunny or partly cloudy day with mabye only 5F in temperature gain over other areas getting rained on; it's a shame we can't pull off full Chinook conditions off the Olympics like areas east of the Rockies often get with 20F+ jumps in temperature. Gets repetitive and boring, worse yet it could exaggerate summer drought conditions. Be thankful if you're not in the rain shadow  

[TT-SEA]

The drizzly, gloomy transition to this warm pattern, and then the very short lived nature of the warm airmass coming up, is interesting.

 

Brought to mind the mid-May 2008 heatwave. I will never forget sitting under warm frontal drizzle with temps in the 50s then hitting mid-90s a few days later (with an unseasonably muggy airmass, as this one looks to be). This one obviously won't get as warm, but the spike and drop will be even more dramatic.

 

This is no 2008.   There have been almost no swings and no real cold or warmth.   Just consistently normal temps with lots of rain.  

[Front Ranger]

No kidding.   And downtown Seattle has nicer weather than all of the surrounding areas.   Stating the obvious.  

 

The hills near North Bend get more snow than everyone else and have the pics to prove it!

[Front Ranger]

This is no 2008.   There have been almost no swings and no real cold or warmth.   Just consistently normal temps with lots of rain.  

 

He was talking about the big swing coming up, doofus. Compared to the mid May 2008 event.

[Jesse]

 

I was defending you. Now you may be proving Tim's point of being overly defensive.

Stop trying to frame things a certain way. You said Portland in particular is homerish. All I said is there was no reason to single out a specific area. Just ask all of the people from the Seattle area who gave this regionally very good winter an F because it didn't snow as much in a relatively narrow urban corridor who's homerish.

 

Like you said. It isn't a bad thing. Human nature. But it seemed odd to throw the "especially Portland" comment in.

[TT-SEA]

Not sure what's so bad about a little rain, this has been a pretty typical spring overall; maybe even a bit below average in the rain shadow. At least other areas have actually had all the activity materialize into substantial rainfall. Here it just turns into a sunny or partly cloudy day with mabye only 5F in temperature gain over other areas getting rained on; it's a shame we can't pull off full Chinook conditions off the Olympics like areas east of the Rockies often get with 20F+ jumps in temperature. Gets repetitive and boring, worse yet it could exaggerate summer drought conditions. Be thankful if you're not in the rain shadow

 

Constant trolling now.   

 

Record setting wet spring outside of a tiny area to the NE of the Olympics.   About as far from "typical" as possible in terms of rain in many areas.   And back-to-back record setting rainy seasons.   It does not get any wetter.   And we live a in a normally very wet place. 

 

Don't talk stupid about being typical overall when you know you are talking about your backyard... and not even as far as the Victoria airport.   

[TT-SEA]

He was talking about the big swing coming up, doofus. Compared to the mid May 2008 event.

 

2008 was full of swings.    

[Jesse]

2008 was full of swings.

I wasn't comparing the whole season. Just the event itself.

 

This spring has been much more consistently rainy/slightly below average.