PNW December 2022, winter might be coming; but mostly canceled.

[snow_wizard]

It appears the Hood Canal area could see close to historic amounts of snow over the next 10 days.  Going to be interesting to see how it plays out there.

[snow_wizard]

4 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

I don't see any precip on the ECMWF from 5 p.m. through 5 a.m.

 

I guess it's just after that and not much.

[Meatyorologist]

3 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

It appears the Hood Canal area could see close to historic amounts of snow over the next 10 days.  Going to be interesting to see how it plays out there.

Like a rich man's 07-08

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

2 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

It appears the Hood Canal area could see close to historic amounts of snow over the next 10 days.  Going to be interesting to see how it plays out there.

A 4-8 inch event looks very possible there tomorrow night.  Should be much dryer snow than that last crap.

[snow_wizard]

3 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

12Z ECMWF still showing an impressive Hood Canal event on Friday night into Saturday morning and the extent of the snow is farther east into the Seattle area on this run.

Looks about like what I'd expect given the precip amounts being shown.

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

1 minute ago, Meatyorologist said:

Like a rich man's 07-08

I had 48 inches that season. 54 in 2008

[snow_wizard]

Just now, MR.SNOWMIZER said:

A 4-8 inch event looks very possible there tomorrow night.  Should be much dryer snow than that last crap.

There's another big one later as well.

[gusky]

6 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

A couple days ago the GFS showed Seattle would have 19 inches of snow on the ground right now.    

It's amazing how badly the GFS has done with these events. I mean, it shouldn't surprise me anymore, but when's the last time you saw someone unironically use it to predict snow in the past few days?

[Skagit Weather]

8 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

Here we go again!

I smell a whole lot of phantom snow on there.

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

Tim can you post a zoomed in image of the hood canal please

[snow_wizard]

Cold north wind really punching south now!  Damn I love this!

[RCola]

1 hour ago, MR.SNOWMIZER said:

This would be a perfect grand finale going into a stretch of cool and dryer weather.

Would be incredible for the few Seattelites who were missed to the north and south on the first two rounds!

 

I've been impressed with WRF this week. It nailed both rounds here in the Seattle area. I hope this comes true!

[FrozenBites]

2 minutes ago, MR.SNOWMIZER said:

I had 48 inches that season. 54 in 2008

I lived in Skokomish Valley that year. We recieved 71 inches. Insane year!

[TT-SEA]

2 minutes ago, MR.SNOWMIZER said:

Tim can you post a zoomed in image of the hood canal please

 

[TT-SEA]

Sunday snow farther north on the 12Z ECMWF...

 

[Skagit Weather]

50 minutes ago, Meatyorologist said:

Another great thing you noted yesterday was that arcing precipitation bands like the one incoming Friday usually end up displaced further north/east away from the low than modeled. Could mean more precip for much of the area. Euro looks like it catches onto this and is much juicier than the GFS.

I hope so, this is the extent of my wintery precipitation coverage this winter. Even an inch would be nice, but normally during events like the one coming up the precipitation never makes it up here.

[joelgombiner]

Last 7 days at Williams Lake. A slow but steady 65 degree drop from 43 at this time last week to -22 this morning. 

This will make this round of Fraser outflow much colder than the last one.

[SouthHillFrosty]

6 minutes ago, gusky said:

It's amazing how badly the GFS has done with these events. I mean, it shouldn't surprise me anymore, but when's the last time you saw someone unironically use it to predict snow in the past few days?

The GFS did pretty well down here. It just wasn’t good on that 50/50 storm. 

[Skagit Weather]

1 hour ago, Front Ranger said:

Impressive November for the region.

BLI: Coldest since 1985, #4 all-time.

SEA: Coldest since 1985 (barely beating out 1993), #6 all-time.

OLM: Coldest since 1985, #2 all-time.

EUG: Coldest since 2000, #6 all-time.

Not to be pedantic, but unless I'm missing something, isn't this the 7th coldest November at SEA (just beating out 1993)?

[Winterdog]

1 minute ago, Skagit Weather said:

I hope so, this is the extent of my wintery precipitation coverage this winter. Even an inch would be nice, but normally during events like the one coming up the precipitation never makes it up here.

Here’s a shot of my winter bounty.  Currently having very light drizzle snow and 31 degrees.

[SnowWillarrive]

10 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

Sunday snow farther north on the 12Z ECMWF...

 

Put that right over King County 

[TacomaWx]

Hadn’t really been paying attention to the Friday and Sunday potential but wow this week is going pretty Good here! 32 degrees DP 31 with north winds mostly cloudy. Not gonna be a warm day. 

[Iceresistance]

There was an interesting battle on who's December 2022 PNW forum would be the winner, I deleted mine when @FroYoBro literally rejected it as the only poster!

[FroYoBro]

1 minute ago, Iceresistance said:

There was an interesting battle on who's December 2022 PNW forum would be the winner, I deleted mine when @FroYoBro literally rejected it as the only poster!

Lol. We aren’t worthy! 

[SnowySeeker50]

Currently 33 degrees. Got about 3 inches from the whole event so pretty good. Most roads now bare and wet or slightly slushy.

[Guest administrator]

Going forward, any GFS snow maps that extend more than 72 hours can only be posted by professional meteorologists. Failure to adhere to this policy will result in a ban.

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

1 minute ago, administrator said:

Going forward, any GFS snow maps that extend more than 72 hours can only be posted by professional meteorologists. Failure to adhere to this policy will result in a ban.

So they can be posted by anyone.

[Rubus Leucodermis]

2 minutes ago, administrator said:

Going forward, any GFS snow maps that extend more than 72 hours can only be posted by professional meteorologists. Failure to adhere to this policy will result in a ban.

They all contain “GFS” somewhere on their title lines, which indicates they are works of fiction.

If GFS snow maps were accurate, I would now have more snow on the ground than Mr. Snowmizer does.

[T-Town]

1 hour ago, snow_wizard said:

I thought Hamma was double M's.

 

[Cold Snap]

Currently 33. Got down to 28 last night with another 0.5” of snow. Good enough for me as the trees are white again and everything looks wintry now.

[Rubus Leucodermis]

Just now, T-Town said:

 

I love that logo. Quite appropriate!

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

4 minutes ago, T-Town said:

 

It is spelled with two M's. Look it up

[T-Town]

2 minutes ago, MR.SNOWMIZER said:

It is spelled with two M's. Look it up

I will let them know when I’m out there tomorrow. 

[Meatyorologist]

PSCZ starting to organize... Flurries in the central Sound over the next few hours, particularly around Seattle-Bellevue.

[WeatherGeek2022]

49 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

Here we go again!

GFS is one helluva entertaining model.

[Randyc321]

3 minutes ago, Winterdog said:

How many of you out there in western Washington still have bare ground through these events?  My misery needs company.

Right here my friend!  But there are some returns coming off the Oly's that look like they may produce something.

Sideline-Kitsap County needs more traffic cams.

[bishbish777]

4 minutes ago, Winterdog said:

How many of you out there in western Washington still have bare ground through these events?  My misery needs company.

Too far south on the 1st event, too far north on the 2nd. All in good fun though, nice to even have the chance this early in the season.

[SouthHillFrosty]

Can’t beat blue skies and snow

[RentonHill]

Interesting...

[WeatheringLoyalHeights]

Faint flurries under sunshine with clouds in the distance here in the Ballard area.  It is pretty, just wish there was snow on the ground!  Let's see some of that PSCZ action!

I'm still not sold on tomorrow's system for my area.  Seems like dewpoints may support but the temps are forecasted to be generally warmer than when the system came through late Tuesday and that was a struggle until the rates got high enough.  Euro and GFS seem to want to give us something though so who knows?