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PNW December 2022, winter might be coming; but mostly canceled.


The Blob

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GFS getting snowier too... precip is done before dawn Saturday on this run but it still manages to produce lots of snow.

 

gfs-deterministic-washington-snow_24hr_kuchera-0068800.png

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**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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Just now, Gradient Keeper said:

4 AM Saturday the moisture JUST misses PDX as it swings north into Washington AGAIN. We do end up with an east wind event/storm with a PDX-DLS of at least -10mb.

prateptype_cat.us_nw.png

Wait until that thing digs down south and some good wraparound is happening.  I feel this one.  Good pattern for over here anyway.

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Precip loop from GFS shows it makes the eastward push and then quickly moves back to the west.    Can't remember seeing this type of situation.     ECMWF has been showing this for many runs.

gfs-deterministic-washington-precip_1hr_inch-1669939200-1670011200-1670104800-20.gif

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36 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

00Z NAM goes crazy tomorrow night...

nam-218-all-washington-total_snow_kuchera-0133600.png

3km is a different story though. I just don't see Seattle getting much out of this1670112000-G3rsSTitIZc.png

My Weather Station:  https://ambientweather.net/dashboard/b415ff35b2d13f00c899051028f04466 

Located in North Seattle, elevation ~150ft. Highest temperature ever recorded is 110.3, lowest is 14.5.

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3 minutes ago, Terreboner said:

Wait until that thing digs down south and some good wraparound is happening.  I feel this one.  Good pattern for over here anyway.

Actually pays to be on the leeward side of the Cascades in those setups. Your area gets that sweet reverse upslope as the air flow wraps around the low, instead of the downsloping winds that the Willamette Valley will have.

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00z GFS for TMRW night's storm. Seems more in line with WRF. NAM has pretty much nothing in Seattle, Euro has around an inch. I'm leaning towards believing NAM/Euro but we will see.1670079600-M0UmyCjJblc.png

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My Weather Station:  https://ambientweather.net/dashboard/b415ff35b2d13f00c899051028f04466 

Located in North Seattle, elevation ~150ft. Highest temperature ever recorded is 110.3, lowest is 14.5.

My Twitter

 

 

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Just now, The Blob said:

I went outside to check my trailers and snow was falling. I'm so happy, but I didn't take any photos because there were too many trucks driving around.

Glad to here it my friend BLOB.

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Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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2 minutes ago, BLI snowman said:

00z GFS looks pretty improved on Sunday evening for Portland. Narrow little burst over the area.

Have your thoughts changed at all on this winter. I am feeling much more optimistic.

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Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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Just now, TT-SEA said:

Total snow through Monday... my area might get beat by both Seattle and Portland!  

gfs-deterministic-washington-total_snow_kuchera-0274000.png

Wowzers. lol

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Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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Just now, SnowWillarrive said:

What is causing that? Seems odd 

Offshore low starts rotating to the SW.   Still looks really strange though.

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**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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3 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Have your thoughts changed at all on this winter. I am feeling much more optimistic.

Cooler/drier seems like a good continued bet based on everything so far. Like I said awhile back, early December activity is traditionally a really nice sign for follow-up activity. So another good window seems likely right now once this period breaks down a bit (probably around mid-month).

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9 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Have your thoughts changed at all on this winter. I am feeling much more optimistic.

Pretty clear at this point that the default/background state for this winter is not going to be warm. There was a point where a warmup / switch to SW flow was forecast in late November and it pretty much fell apart. Reminds me of the multiple warmups forecast through April/May that ended up being one or two days before it went right back to cold.

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