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PNW December 2022, winter might be coming; but mostly canceled.


The Blob

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OMAK

12/1/21: 74/49

12/1/22: 27/10

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Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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40 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

 

ecmwf-deterministic-washington-total_snow_kuchera-0241600.png

Finally a map I actually like. Too many near misses and warm noses in my corner.

Garfield County/Pomeroy, WA:

2023-2024 Snowfall totals: 14.3 inches

HIghest snow total (per event): 5.8 inches total 1/11/24 - 1/12/24.

Most recent accumulation (non trace): 0.20 inches on 2/26/24

Days with  trace or more snowfall: 12/01/23 (0.60), 1/8/24 (1.0), 1/10/24 (3.5), 1/11/23 (3.5 inches with Thundersnow; separate event from prior day), 1/12/24 (2.30). 1/14/24 (T), 1/17/24 (1.20 inches), 1/18/24 (1.5 inches), 1/19/24 (0.20), 2/09/24 (0.30), 2/26/24 (0.20-mainly graupel)

First Freeze: 10/27/2023

Last Sub freezing Day: 1/20/24 (12th) (8 days in a row from 1/12/24-1/20/24)

Coldest low: -12F (!!!!!!!!) (1/12/24)

Last White Christmas: 2022 at my location (on ground)

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29 minutes ago, SouthHillFrosty said:

Interesting 

 

 

 

Interesting given this guy's analysis of the EPS. I find it interesting a solution that puts it really cold in the PNW is supported by the 2nd largest with a negative PNA signal while he argues the highest risk (options 1 +3 in his analysis) shows a positive PNA signal. 

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This got sent out at work today and I chuckled a little bit. Wintry conditions, possibly, but I don't know about "extreme cold" man.. dramatic. 

People have also using this as an excuse not to come in, which is fine because I get the office all to myself :D

Screenshot 2022-12-02 123335.JPG

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4 minutes ago, Snownerd3000 said:

Interesting given this guy's analysis of the EPS. I find it interesting a solution that puts it really cold in the PNW is supported by the 2nd largest with a negative PNA signal while he argues the highest risk (options 1 +3 in his analysis) shows a positive PNA signal. 

 

I say this then look at the latest EPS and PNA isnt positive but gets really close to neutral near midmonth. Epo also flirts with going positive in about a week then relatively neutral.  Strongest negative anomalies for teleconnects are NAO and AO being negative.

1669939200-ZxskjiiMS8Egrb2.png

 

1669939200-AfWmNwelmiwgrb2.png

 

1669939200-DyiUJGz3Chggrb2.png

 

1669939200-PflCM54sqm8grb2.png

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Just now, Cloud said:

This got sent out at work today and I chuckled a little bit. Wintry conditions, possibly, but I don't know about "extreme cold" man.. dramatic. 

People have also using this as an excuse not to come in, which is fine because I get the office all to myself :D

Screenshot 2022-12-02 123335.JPG

Need to find the other weenies at work that sent this out.

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6 minutes ago, Snownerd3000 said:

 

I say this then look at the latest EPS and PNA isnt positive but gets really close to neutral near midmonth. Epo also flirts with going positive in about a week then relatively neutral.  Strongest negative anomalies for teleconnects are NAO and AO being negative.

1669939200-ZxskjiiMS8Egrb2.png

 

1669939200-AfWmNwelmiwgrb2.png

 

1669939200-DyiUJGz3Chggrb2.png

 

1669939200-PflCM54sqm8grb2.png

Haha

 

 

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I'll be gone 14-20th so we can do a pattern reset or something during that timeframe. You know how much it sucked flying out on 12/14/2016 with snow falling. 

Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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3 hours ago, Cloud said:

I'm actually a bit perplexed w/ this comment because how can we say "seems like the 15th would be last window for snow in December" when the run ends on the 18th? What's the rationality here? 

Looking at long range + ensembles, not just the GFS.

My Weather Station:  https://ambientweather.net/dashboard/b415ff35b2d13f00c899051028f04466 

Located in North Seattle, elevation ~150ft. Highest temperature ever recorded is 110.3, lowest is 14.5.

My Twitter

 

 

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Turning out to be a really nice day in Salem. Strolled around the park next to our office on the lunch hour. 

No description available.

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Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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1 minute ago, Cloud said:

Tell me which LR and ensembles you're looking at that goes past Dec. 18. 

CFS

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Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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2 minutes ago, Cloud said:

Tell me which LR and ensembles you're looking at that goes past Dec. 18. 

GEFS extended, Euro weeklies. I'm not saying I'm right, there's no real way to know what will happen that far out. Just noting general patterns.

My Weather Station:  https://ambientweather.net/dashboard/b415ff35b2d13f00c899051028f04466 

Located in North Seattle, elevation ~150ft. Highest temperature ever recorded is 110.3, lowest is 14.5.

My Twitter

 

 

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Impressive batch of moisture off the coast getting ready to move in. I still think if this stuff moves into the sound this evening it will produce snow even if it starts as a mix. The euro only showing 4 inches out here looks to light, we have already had 2 inches.

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We come from the land of the ice and snow.

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Quite a gradient here, Those Kitsap folks are gonna get lucky! Been told by @Meatyorologist that WRF way overdoes easterlies so maybe there's still more hope.image.thumb.png.c1a000c58352ab374faed4158950db8a.png

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My Weather Station:  https://ambientweather.net/dashboard/b415ff35b2d13f00c899051028f04466 

Located in North Seattle, elevation ~150ft. Highest temperature ever recorded is 110.3, lowest is 14.5.

My Twitter

 

 

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2 minutes ago, gusky said:

1671753600-ESFhIKJgAPA.png

Yes

Well maybe we can keep it chilly at the surface with lots of fog. 

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Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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