PNW December 2022, winter might be coming; but mostly canceled.

[joelgombiner]

Looks like a coiled dragon is about to unleash its fury upon us. 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

1 minute ago, Phishy Wx said:

pretty nice looking spring day there

One thing is for sure. It's never winter south of 45 N and west of the Cascade Crest. 

[gusky]

What is this garbage makes no sense at all

[Gummy]

2 minutes ago, gusky said:

What is this garbage makes no sense at all

HRRR thinks it is too warm for snow, just rain for the puget sound.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

1 minute ago, Gummy said:

HRRR thinks it is too warm for snow, just rain for the puget sound.

It is 39 right now at Sea TAC.

[TT-SEA]

31 minutes ago, Cloud said:

This got sent out at work today and I chuckled a little bit. Wintry conditions, possibly, but I don't know about "extreme cold" man.. dramatic. 

People have also using this as an excuse not to come in, which is fine because I get the office all to myself

"Extreme" used twice in there... to describe a day with basically no snow and close to 40 degrees.    Is this Houston??    

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

1 minute ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

It is 39 right now at Sea TAC.

Its also showing nothing here which is just wrong. 

[gusky]

2 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

It is 39 right now at Sea TAC.

Seattle I can understand but those totals in W Kitsap are strange

[umadbro]

8 minutes ago, gusky said:

What is this garbage makes no sense at all

HRRR has been on the struggle shuttle 

[T-Town]

No power at Alderbrook so no Hood Canal snow for me. Back to rooting for snow in Tacoma tonight, although that doesn’t look too promising.  

[SnowWillarrive]

Up to 35 degrees here.

[Blizzard777]

2 minutes ago, T-Town said:

No power at Alderbrook so no Hood Canal snow for me. Back to rooting for snow in Tacoma tonight, although that doesn’t look too promising.  

Been a long time since I stayed there at the resort!  Good martinis and view. No TVs in the room either.  Fun place 

[Omegaraptor]

20 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

One thing is for sure. It's never winter south of 45 N and west of the Cascade Crest. 

Pretty due for another Dec 2013 or early Jan 2017 where the southern PNW does better than northern. Cold and snow events have overall been pretty north-favored in the last five years.

[BLI snowman]

26 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

I'll be gone 14-20th so we can do a pattern reset or something during that timeframe. You know how much it sucked flying out on 12/14/2016 with snow falling. 

Correct me if I'm wrong, but that was Salem's last really good (5"+) snowstorm right? I know they also did well with the snow showers on 12/26/21, but the 2016 event was more uniform in its coverage and not as elevation dependent.

[TT-SEA]

18Z NAM is much snowier than its 12Z run.    I noticed that the precip offshore is starting to move inland now.

[Everleigh]

Such a tease....seeing all that off shore...It could give us all what we want, if it tried hard enough....but NnnooOoooOooOooo.....Its just gotta sit there....teasing us....taunting.....the jerk.

 

Lol

[WeatherGeek2022]

3 minutes ago, Everleigh said:

Such a tease....seeing all that off shore...It could give us all what we want, if it tried hard enough....but NnnooOoooOooOooo.....Its just gotta sit there....teasing us....taunting.....the jerk.

 

Lol

I guess it's time to start making sacrifices

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

5 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

18Z NAM is much snowier than its 12Z run.    I noticed that the precip offshore is starting to move inland now.

I'm going to take a stab at it. Between 4pm and 4am I'm going for 6-10 new here.

[Cascadia_Wx]

Is it just me or does it seem like the station at The Dalles has been running warm lately?

41 and cloudy here after a low of 33.

[Rubus Leucodermis]

5 minutes ago, WeatherGeek2022 said:

I guess it's time to start making sacrifices

Sacrifice all your snow-related equipment (shovels, sand, salt, tire chains, etc.). Once you are unprepared for snow, it will come!

[Doinko]

ICON keeps us as rain on Sunday

[thickhog]

1 minute ago, Rubus Leucodermis said:

Sacrifice all your snow-related equipment (shovels, sand, salt, tire chains, etc.). Once you are unprepared for snow, it will come!

Man, I wish I needed to own snow-related equipment

[Cascadia_Wx]

1 minute ago, Doinko said:

ICON keeps us as rain on Sunday

I’ve pretty much given up on seeing sticking snow with the current pattern. It’s been a a pretty massive underachiever for both temps and general activity for the Portland area, really see no reason why that will change.

[SnowWillarrive]

23 minutes ago, Omegaraptor said:

Pretty due for another Dec 2013 or early Jan 2017 where the southern PNW does better than northern. Cold and snow events have overall been pretty north-favored in the last five years.

I agree it’s been lacking in PDX. But on average Puget Sound just gets more snow. 

[DeepFriedEgg]

9 minutes ago, Doinko said:

ICON keeps us as rain on Sunday

Which is likely correct. Seem like the torch got turned on today and it is downright balmy. 44F IMBY and 45F at PDX. Cold air never makes it south and east enough. Seen this movie before.... Not to mention the pathetic amount of moisture avaliable.

[Everleigh]

7 minutes ago, Rubus Leucodermis said:

Sacrifice all your snow-related equipment (shovels, sand, salt, tire chains, etc.). Once you are unprepared for snow, it will come!

I dont HAVE any snow related equipment to sacrifice!! 

I have an old snowboard in the shed.....it hasn't been used in almost 20 years...Does that count!? lol 

[Rubus Leucodermis]

Flurries are ending and the sun is coming out. Snowed for hours, only amounted to a dusting new.

[DeepFriedEgg]

Let's get out of this awful pattern and reset. No point in delaying the inevitable ARs, split flow and west coast ridging. 

[Rubus Leucodermis]

Just now, DeepFriedEgg said:

Let's get out of this awful pattern and reset. No point in delaying the inevitable ARs, split flow and west coast ridging. 

Think 50°F rain! C’MON!!!

[Seattle]

Just now, DeepFriedEgg said:

Let's get out of this awful pattern and reset. No point in delaying the inevitable ARs, split flow and west coast ridging. 

I mean this pattern is frustrating, but not exactly awful... You'd rather have torchy 55 degree downpours?

[Omegaraptor]

Moses Lake at 16 after a low of -9. Not bad.

Many southern areas doing great today too.

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

Right up road from home. 32 degrees winter hanging on today better than expected. 

[TT-SEA]

18Z GFS has spoken... and of course its very snowy tonight.    Somehow we are going to get 3-4 inches even out here despite the ECMWF showing the precip never makes it this far.   

[DeepFriedEgg]

1 minute ago, Seattle said:

I mean this pattern is frustrating, but not exactly awful... You'd rather have torchy 55 degree downpours?

We only get so many shots at getting arctic air west of the cascades. Let's stop wasting time with this near miss.

[TacomaWx]

Was 37 here 36 again. Should manage a sub 40 high the way it’s looking right now. Not expecting much this evening but man it’s been an awesome week as it is! 

[SnowWillarrive]

Just now, TT-SEA said:

18Z GFS has spoken... and of course its very snowy tonight.    Somehow we are going to get 3-4 inches even out here despite the ECMWF showing the precip never makes it this far.   

This will be interesting (if true). Hope it’s not to warm this evening. 

[TigerWoodsLibido]

46F and sunny. Nice day!

[TT-SEA]

13 minutes ago, SnowWillarrive said:

This will be interesting (if true). Hope it’s not to warm this evening. 

No idea what will happen.   The ECMWF shows the precip only makes it as far east as 405 and shows 925mb temps around +2C overnight.    The GFS shows precip all over King County with a 925mb temp of -1C.   

This event is already in progress and the GFS and ECMWF are still miles apart.   

[DeepFriedEgg]

WOW! SEEING A NICE EXPONENTIAL CURVE ON MY TEMP GRAPH!! LOOKS LIKE WE'RE GOING VERTICAL!!

[SouthHillFrosty]

Zoomed in of Tim’s map.