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PNW December 2022, winter might be coming; but mostly canceled.


The Blob

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14 minutes ago, Perturbed Member said:

According to the ICON I should have never seen anything but rain the past week. I've seen snow falling 3 different times and had a light accumulation, a quarter inch on non-road surfaces a few days ago.

Most models rightfully show lots of shadowing in showery precip but the ICON will sometimes even show significant amounts for startiform precip. Relative to other models, it is simply overdone. 

You can watch the ICON over a period of time and look at its projected QPF and then compare to actual values at those locations. The ICON will frequently be too low.

tldr; Just use the Euro, it obliterates the ICON.

ICON isn't terrible for pattern recognition. 

Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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Another thought on the system tonight... I am not sure the east wind is what cuts off the precip.   Usually when we talk about the east wind lowering precip amounts it is when a system is coming inland.   This system is not moving inland and is actually moving away from western WA tonight.   The reason the precip totals fade to the east might just be because that is as close as precip shield gets before being pulled back westward as the low drifts to the SW offshore. 

It is dead calm here... there really isn't much an east wind with this event.

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**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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6 minutes ago, Cascadia_Wx said:

Sure, I just remember it spitting out some pretty funky warm readings last winter and spring too. I guess it’s acting like a typical airport station.

Dallesport has always been a fluky hot spot so it's hard to say if it's erroneous or just the climo right there at their especially exposed location. It does seem like the city of The Dalles itself (which of course is actually in another state) and all areas tucked more away from the river tend to be a few degrees cooler both in the summer and the winter.

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GFS wants to start precip with extremely low snow levels next Friday... 

Also looks decent with the Sunday stuff. 

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Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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Just now, BLI snowman said:

Dallesport has always been a fluky hot spot so it's hard to say if it's erroneous or just the climo right there at their especially exposed location. It does seem like the city of The Dalles itself (which of course is actually in another state) and all areas tucked more away from the river tend to be a few degrees cooler both in the summer and the winter.

Think about it. Dallesport is about the most exposed part of that area. It's not going to be shaded by topography and gets more hours of direct sunlight than the town of The Dalles. It is also backed by south facing slopes, which in direct sunlight I am sure radiate heat, could be wrong, but that would make sense. I feel we had this exact conversation last winter. I can tell you one thing. If there was arctic air being tapped into it wouldn't be 43 there.

Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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Just now, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Think about it. Dallesport is about the most exposed part of that area. It's not going to be shaded by topography and gets more hours of direct sunlight than the town of The Dalles. It is also backed by south facing slopes, which in direct sunlight I am sure radiate heat, could be wrong, but that would make sense. I feel we had this exact conversation last winter. I can tell you one thing. If there was arctic air being tapped into it wouldn't be 43 there.

Exactly. This airmass is either very unimpressive or it just hasn't made it there. Either way, really not looking good for PDX.

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1 minute ago, TT-SEA said:

Another thought on the system tonight... I am not sure the east wind is what cuts off the precip.   Usually when we talk about the east wind lowering precip amounts it is when a system is coming inland.   This system is not moving inland and is actually moving away from western WA tonight.   The reason the precip totals fade to the east might just be because that is as close as precip shield gets before being pulled back westward as the low drifts to the SW offshore. 

It is dead calm here... there really isn't much an east wind with this event.

There is absolutely a downsloping easterly component. Low levels have dried and all stations in the central Sound with properly exposed terrain are recording easterlies. Pressure gradients have turned offshore and are strengthening as modeled. Precip moving into the Puget Sound is being eaten up by dry air. Your house is just sheltered

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Weather stats for MBY

Snowfall:

-Total snowfall since joining: 50.25"

-2018-19: 21"

-2019-20: 2.5"

-2020-21: 13"

-2021-22: 8.75"

-2022-23: 5.75"

-2023-24*: 0.25"

-Most recent snowfall: 0.25”; January 17th, 2024

-Largest snowfall (single storm): 8.5"; February 12-13, 2021

-Largest snow depth: 14"; 1:30am February 12th, 2019

Temperatures:

-Warmest: 109F; June 28th, 2021

-Coldest: 13F; December 27th, 2021

-Phreeze Count 2023-24: 31

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Just now, DeepFriedEgg said:

Exactly. This airmass is either very unimpressive or it just hasn't made it there. Either way, really not looking good for PDX.

Well like most cold airmasses over say, the past 3 decades, it doesn't have much teeth too it. My guess is some of those really cold lows we saw in some places east of the Cascades were due to decoupling, clear skies, and snow cover. Fine for building a cold pool, but that takes some time, there is now massive low level cold air advecting south through the basin towards the Gorge. 

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Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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2 minutes ago, DeepFriedEgg said:

Exactly. This airmass is either very unimpressive or it just hasn't made it there. Either way, really not looking good for PDX.

I mean, if you look at the numbers in Omak, Moses Lake, etc, there's obviously some really cold air nearby.

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A forum for the end of the world.

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Speaking of pathetic airport stations. SLE is up to 48 with south winds gusting to 25. That's another station that always seems to read 2-4 degrees warmer than anywhere else in town. At my office right now there is almost no wind and the car thermometer just said 45. 

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Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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11 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

You are correct there has been nothing with that kind of widespread coverage near those amounts since. They had a really solid event on 1/7/17 too, but that was more like 3" downtown. They got totally donut holed in February 2018 and the February 2019 stuff was pretty elevation dependent too. Parts of West and South Salem did really well, but the flatlands were more in the 1-2" range with a couple of different events. Lower parts of Salem probably had about 2-3" last December on the 26th last year, with the bigger totals being above 500' down south. 

They're probably the most due spot in the lowlands for a significant snow event. 

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2 minutes ago, BLI snowman said:

They're probably the most due spot in the lowlands for a significant snow event. 

Time for a 2/19/93 30 year reunion redux. 

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Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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3 minutes ago, Meatyorologist said:

There is absolutely a downsloping easterly component. Low levels have dried and all stations in the central Sound with properly exposed terrain are recording easterlies. Pressure gradients have turned offshore and are strengthening as modeled. Precip moving into the Puget Sound is being eaten up by dry air. Your house is just sheltered

The real test will be in a few hours as the actual slug of moisture from the offshore low moves inland. Very weak dynamics with the precipitation this morning, I don't think that's comparable.

I'd guess Tr-1" for Seattle this evening, 1-2" for Tacoma, and 3-5" for Olympia.

Probably another 8"+ for Snowmizer.

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5 minutes ago, Meatyorologist said:

There is absolutely a downsloping easterly component. Low levels have dried and all stations in the central Sound with properly exposed terrain are recording easterlies. Pressure gradients have turned offshore and are strengthening as modeled. Precip moving into the Puget Sound is being eaten up by dry air. Your house is just sheltered

Definitely could be true at my house.

But still... there is the issue of precip only able to make it as far east as the upper level support will allow regardless of the east wind.

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**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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2 minutes ago, DeepFriedEgg said:

Looks like a repeat but maybe warmer and no arctic air to tap in to....

This has better placement tho. This is farther south.

 

OT: might have broken a bone in hand. Model riding might be tough to do with one hand😂

61F34F52-1399-46FA-B59F-B4CC4D12BB15.jpeg

9254A9D5-D3DC-4FED-9C1E-B68F57CF7E6E.jpeg

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7 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Think about it. Dallesport is about the most exposed part of that area. It's not going to be shaded by topography and gets more hours of direct sunlight than the town of The Dalles. It is also backed by south facing slopes, which in direct sunlight I am sure radiate heat, could be wrong, but that would make sense. I feel we had this exact conversation last winter. I can tell you one thing. If there was arctic air being tapped into it wouldn't be 43 there.

All very true. DLS will often be warmer than Hood River as well, even in CAA situations, despite being a good jump further east. Being relatively low elevation and very exposed to sunlight and also with very little chance to ever decouple means they're just kind of a perpetual hotbox.

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Are there any properties around 1000-1500' in the vicinity of Forks... That would be a nice place to put down roots. 

Edited by SilverFallsAndrew
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Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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5 minutes ago, Front Ranger said:

I mean, if you look at the numbers in Omak, Moses Lake, etc, there's obviously some really cold air nearby.

Even if that's not just due to snow cover, models in good agreement that the really cold stuff doesn't make it further south than it already is. Typical...

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2 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

Definitely could be true at my house.

But still... there is the issue of precip only able to make it as far east as the upper level support will allow regardless of the east wind.

It's an unfortunate combination of the two. If the latter doesn't become as much of an issue, could be snow into the foothills, albeit light.

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Weather stats for MBY

Snowfall:

-Total snowfall since joining: 50.25"

-2018-19: 21"

-2019-20: 2.5"

-2020-21: 13"

-2021-22: 8.75"

-2022-23: 5.75"

-2023-24*: 0.25"

-Most recent snowfall: 0.25”; January 17th, 2024

-Largest snowfall (single storm): 8.5"; February 12-13, 2021

-Largest snow depth: 14"; 1:30am February 12th, 2019

Temperatures:

-Warmest: 109F; June 28th, 2021

-Coldest: 13F; December 27th, 2021

-Phreeze Count 2023-24: 31

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Just now, BLI snowman said:

All very true. DLS will often be warmer than Hood River as well, even in CAA situations, despite being a good jump further east. Being relatively low elevation and very exposed to sunlight and also with very little chance to ever decouple means they're just kind of a perpetual hotbox.

My brother lived in The Dalles for about a year, luckily for him his only winter there was 2016-17... But he wasn't able to give me a super realistic assessment of what the climate was like. 

Personally if I lived out there I'd probably end up further south around Dufur or Tygh Valley. 

Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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2 minutes ago, FroYoBro said:

Definitely a little warmer than I expected today. Just hit 47 here.

Yeah we are overachieving a little, but this was expected to be the warmest day of at least the next several. Most forecasts I saw had WV locations in the mid-40s today. Maybe a little more sunshine and south wind than expected bumped those up a couple. 

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Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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20 minutes ago, DeepFriedEgg said:

Exactly. This airmass is either very unimpressive or it just hasn't made it there. Either way, really not looking good for PDX.

Today's conditions (and the past few days) don't have too much bearing on what happens Sunday. Very different setup with the low pressure focused well to our SW and the steady offshore flow being set in place beforehand.  Not to say it will be impressively cold by any means, it will remain marginal temp-wise to be sure. But daytime temps will be much colder than they have been. There was never anything to suggest that temps up until this point would be impressive for Portland with the southerly flow and so-so upper level airmass.

Edited by BLI snowman
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1 hour ago, TT-SEA said:

18Z NAM is much snowier than its 12Z run.    I noticed that the precip offshore is starting to move inland now.

nam-nest-washington-total_snow_kuchera-0068800.png

That'd be a nice change for Victoria, we've missed pretty much every shot we've had at significant snowfall so far. Only had about 2 hours of light snow at the very start of it, while places just north of here are likely approaching 12~14" so far. Currently 39F with a 36F dewpoint so we've got a ways to go before we can get anything resembling snow.

Looks fairly snowy up in Nanaimo at the moment:

9.jpg

Even more so up near Campbell River:

121.jpg

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10 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

My brother lived in The Dalles for about a year, luckily for him his only winter there was 2016-17... But he wasn't able to give me a super realistic assessment of what the climate was like. 

Personally if I lived out there I'd probably end up further south around Dufur or Tygh Valley. 

East slopes are where it's at. Parkdale or Trout Lake on the WA side are definitely places I would consider as retirement destinations.

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Just now, BLI snowman said:

East slopes are where it's at. Parkdale or Trout Lake on the WA side are definitely places I would consider as retirement destinations.

Parkdale is beyond gorgeous, but Trout Lake is a little more off the beaten path. And Hood River County has been gentrified a little too much. I'd probably go with Trout Lake. 

Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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That is some beautiful cold onshore flow on the long range GFS. 

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Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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15 minutes ago, Front Ranger said:

The real test will be in a few hours as the actual slug of moisture from the offshore low moves inland. Very weak dynamics with the precipitation this morning, I don't think that's comparable.

I'd guess Tr-1" for Seattle this evening, 1-2" for Tacoma, and 3-5" for Olympia.

Probably another 8"+ for Snowmizer.

This system has the potential to be a bigger snow producer mainly because ratio will be higher. The radar looks stout. It looks like it will be a steady flow of moisture for 12 hrs so it could be a significant snow storm.

We come from the land of the ice and snow.

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Good thing I rented an AWD SUV for the KC to Tulsa drive...

gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_scus_49.png

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Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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