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PNW December 2022, winter might be coming; but mostly canceled.


The Blob

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Only 28 for a high in Pasco so far. Definitely some sufficiently cold Basin air to tap into as that cold pool starts to spread and deepen a bit more the next 48 hours, and as the low drifts southward and any southerly component dies for places like Portland, The Dalles, and Pendleton.

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5 minutes ago, DeepFriedEgg said:

Hate to break it to you but that's gonna be all rain unless you have some elevation.

You should probably relax and enjoy the ride more... Gonna be a long winter if you focus on all the disappointments. This is coming from a place that has been within 5 miles of heavy snow twice in the last week!

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Weather stats for MBY

Snowfall:

-Total snowfall since joining: 50.25"

-2018-19: 21"

-2019-20: 2.5"

-2020-21: 13"

-2021-22: 8.75"

-2022-23: 5.75"

-2023-24*: 0.25"

-Most recent snowfall: 0.25”; January 17th, 2024

-Largest snowfall (single storm): 8.5"; February 12-13, 2021

-Largest snow depth: 14"; 1:30am February 12th, 2019

Temperatures:

-Warmest: 109F; June 28th, 2021

-Coldest: 13F; December 27th, 2021

-Phreeze Count 2023-24: 31

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2 minutes ago, MR.SNOWMIZER said:

This system has the potential to be a bigger snow producer mainly because ratio will be higher. The radar looks stout. It looks like it will be a steady flow of moisture for 12 hrs so it could be a significant snow storm.

*at higher elevations 

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6 minutes ago, Snownerd3000 said:

my buddy's flight to SF was cancelled tonight by Alaska.  They cancelled ALL of their flights tonight as a preemptive measure is what he told me due to threat of inclimate weather.

Didn't Alaska have a bunch of issues over the summer too? Seems like they need to get their stuff together. Everyone acts like Alaska is so great, but they are incredibly expensive, and don't seem to be super reliable. 

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Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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17 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

My brother lived in The Dalles for about a year, luckily for him his only winter there was 2016-17... But he wasn't able to give me a super realistic assessment of what the climate was like. 

Personally if I lived out there I'd probably end up further south around Dufur or Tygh Valley. 

Dufur and Tygh Valley? Aren't those names from Star Wars or something?

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Home Weather Station Stats for 2023

High - Satans Bunghole

Lowest High - Not sure

Low - I don't have the data

Sub 40 highs - Not quite

Sub-freezing highs - Try again

Lows below 25 - You're joking

Lows below 20 - No

2023 Snowfall - LOL

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Some noticeable yeasterly breezes here now

Weather stats for MBY

Snowfall:

-Total snowfall since joining: 50.25"

-2018-19: 21"

-2019-20: 2.5"

-2020-21: 13"

-2021-22: 8.75"

-2022-23: 5.75"

-2023-24*: 0.25"

-Most recent snowfall: 0.25”; January 17th, 2024

-Largest snowfall (single storm): 8.5"; February 12-13, 2021

-Largest snow depth: 14"; 1:30am February 12th, 2019

Temperatures:

-Warmest: 109F; June 28th, 2021

-Coldest: 13F; December 27th, 2021

-Phreeze Count 2023-24: 31

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Just now, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Didn't Alaska have a bunch of issues over the summer too? Seems like they need to get their stuff together. Everyone acts like Alaska is so great, but they are incredibly expensive, and don't seem to be super reliable. 

They built up loyalty when they were amazing but ya, I agree.  Just another flying bus with less and less service and less and less leg room. Reminds me of this golden moment.

Just about ass to ankles back here. A classic Arrested Development scene.. spray/ dye are just went ass to ankles hack here, Maeby. Do wanna hop on your cousin'

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14 minutes ago, BLI snowman said:

Today's conditions (and the past few days) don't have too much bearing on what happens Sunday. Very different setup with the low pressure focused well to our SW and the steady offshore flow being set in place beforehand.  Not to say it will be impressively cold by any means, it will remain marginal temp-wise to be sure. But daytime temps will be much colder than they have been. There was never anything to suggest that temps up until this point would be impressive for Portland with the southerly flow and so-so upper level airmass.

Hoping PDX sees a high in the 30s at some point during this. Knowing PDX that's probably unlikely though

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Just now, SnowPlz said:

The good news is that Spirit Airlines are offering displaced Alaska passengers a folding chair in their cargo bay as they plow directly into a blizzard 

Spirit is not as bad as their reputation. Really Frontier and Spirit are fine for what they are. Discount airlines. If you expect some pretzels and a coke, or to be able to bring a carry on without paying a ridiculous fee then fly Delta or American. 

I have flown Frontier probably 30-40 times in the past five years, and you can usually get a carry on past them without having to pay, as long as it is backpack size or smaller. I never travel with more than that. 

To me United is the worst because they pretend they are one of the big boys, but are really no better than Spirit or Frontier. 

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Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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9 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Parkdale is beyond gorgeous, but Trout Lake is a little more off the beaten path. And Hood River County has been gentrified a little too much. I'd probably go with Trout Lake. 

Glenwood in Klickitat County is also a great climate, although lacking in infrastructure. 

https://wrcc.dri.edu/cgi-bin/cliMAIN.pl?wa3184

Underrated area in terms of beauty, too. Great views of Mt. Adams and the Klickitat River has some really nice areas.

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9 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Didn't Alaska have a bunch of issues over the summer too? Seems like they need to get their stuff together. Everyone acts like Alaska is so great, but they are incredibly expensive, and don't seem to be super reliable. 

Alaska did fine over the summer, but the industry as a whole has really struggled. Kind of surprised they are preemptively cancelling flights en masse this evening for what will likely be light, largely non-accumulating snow. Maybe Snyder thinks otherwise!

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2022-23 Winter:

11/29: .25" + 1" = 1.25" | 11/30: .25"

12/2: .2" + .5" = .7" | 12/3: .2" | 12/4: trace

12/18: .4" | 12/19: .2" + .8" = 1.0" | 12/20: .2 + 1.5" = 1.7

1/31: trace | 2/14: trace | 2/22: .2 | 2/26: 1.0"

Total: 6.7"

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6 minutes ago, Snownerd3000 said:

They built up loyalty when they were amazing but ya, I agree.  Just another flying bus with less and less service and less and less leg room. Reminds me of this golden moment.

Just about ass to ankles back here. A classic Arrested Development scene.. spray/ dye are just went ass to ankles hack here, Maeby. Do wanna hop on your cousin'

I've been told I sorta resemble Michael Cera. Though not the 12 year old version seen here.

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A forum for the end of the world.

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1 minute ago, BLI snowman said:

Hey, they say 41 is the new 30s.

NWS point forecast is going with 39 tomorrow and 38 on Sunday at PDX. If that verifies I think we call that a win. 

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Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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20 minutes ago, BLI snowman said:

East slopes are where it's at. Parkdale or Trout Lake on the WA side are definitely places I would consider as retirement destinations.

I always keep an eye on property out in Trout Lake, and on the hills near Swift Reservoir. 

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Hour 384 does not disappoint. 

gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_nwus_64.png

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Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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I think I went to a rodeo in Glenwood, WA back in June 2018. There were a lot of thunderstorms that day and when we were heading back to our campground by Mt. Adams, we saw lightning hit a tree and split it in half, as we stopped to gawk at the tree a young black bear ran across the road. 

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Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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Well...

gfs_T2ma_namer_64.png

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Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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42 minutes ago, Front Ranger said:

The real test will be in a few hours as the actual slug of moisture from the offshore low moves inland. Very weak dynamics with the precipitation this morning, I don't think that's comparable.

I'd guess Tr-1" for Seattle this evening, 1-2" for Tacoma, and 3-5" for Olympia.

Probably another 8"+ for Snowmizer.

You really think 1-2” tonight here? That would be surprising to me but then again everything has been surprising this week. Temps at the moment don’t really support snow 38 DP 35…but I’d imagine things will cools down and the DPs drop when the easterly winds kick in more. 

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3 minutes ago, TacomaWx said:

You really think 1-2” tonight here? That would be surprising to me but then again everything has been surprising this week. Temps at the moment don’t really support snow 38 DP 35…but I’d imagine things will cools down and the DPs drop when the easterly winds kick in more. 

Assuming heavy enough precip reaches there, yeah a quick inch or two seems doable.

Surprised your DP is that high.

A forum for the end of the world.

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34 minutes ago, Snownerd3000 said:

my buddy's flight to SF was cancelled tonight by Alaska.  They cancelled ALL of their flights tonight as a preemptive measure is what he told me due to threat of inclimate weather.

Just checked Seatacs web site and Alaskas website, most flights are still scheduled for departure this evening, including AS814 to SFO.  There are some cancellations, more than normal for sure, but most flights are still happening tonight on Alaska out of Seatac.

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