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PNW December 2022, winter might be coming; but mostly canceled.


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9 minutes ago, TacomaWx said:

You really think 1-2” tonight here? That would be surprising to me but then again everything has been surprising this week. Temps at the moment don’t really support snow 38 DP 35…but I’d imagine things will cools down and the DPs drop when the easterly winds kick in more. 

Temp has dropped back to 34 here with a DP of 29

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3 minutes ago, Brian_in_Leavenworth said:

Just checked Seatacs web site and Alaskas website, most flights are still scheduled for departure this evening, including AS814 to SFO.  There are some cancellations, more than normal for sure, but most flights are still happening tonight on Alaska out of Seatac.

My friend might have just been pissed and said all flights. his was the 930 which is cancelled.  I don't see the reason listed but he said they told him it was weather related. 

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44F and clouding up. Nice day!

Springfield, Oregon regular season 2023-24 Stats:

  • Coldest high: 25F (Jan 14, 2024)
  • Coldest low: 20F (Jan 14, 2024)
  • Days with below freezing temps: 24 (Most recent: Mar 8, 2024)
  • Days with sub-40F highs: 4 (Most recent: Jan 16, 2024)
  • Total snowfall: 0.0"
  • Total ice: 2.25”
  • Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021 (1.9")
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 15, 2024 (27F)
  • Last White Christmas: 1990
  • Significant wind events (gusts 45+): 0

Personal Stats:

  • Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 16, 2024 (32F)
  • Last White Christmas: 2008
  • Total snowfall since joining TheWeatherForums: 42.0"
  • Sub-freezing highs since joining TheWeatherForums: 4

 

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GoFundMe "College Basketball vs Epilepsy": gf.me/u/zk3pj2

My Twitter @CBBjerseys4hope

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2 minutes ago, Snownerd3000 said:

My friend might have just been pissed and said all flights. his was the 930 which is cancelled.  I don't see the reason listed but he said they told him it was weather related. 

That makes sense.  And the weather could have been somewhere else.  Maybe they could rebook him on the other flight. 

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3 hours ago, Snownerd3000 said:

 

I say this then look at the latest EPS and PNA isnt positive but gets really close to neutral near midmonth. Epo also flirts with going positive in about a week then relatively neutral.  Strongest negative anomalies for teleconnects are NAO and AO being negative.

1669939200-ZxskjiiMS8Egrb2.png

 

1669939200-AfWmNwelmiwgrb2.png

 

1669939200-DyiUJGz3Chggrb2.png

 

1669939200-PflCM54sqm8grb2.png

But what about the CFS? 

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After looking at the teleconnections for the next couple weeks and the ensembles, I feel like the next few days are the best shot at a little snow for awhile. Pattern won’t be favorable again until at least the 20th I believe and that kinda sucks. Just hope the mountain snow doesn’t melt too much between now and then. 
 

Also, that 18z I’m betting is a huge outlier. 
 

An SSW event would be welcomed right about now. Any word on that guys?

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8 minutes ago, Snownerd3000 said:

one of these times it will be right lol

 

February 2019

  • Snow 1

Weather stats for MBY

Snowfall:

-Total snowfall since joining: 50.25"

-2018-19: 21"

-2019-20: 2.5"

-2020-21: 13"

-2021-22: 8.75"

-2022-23: 5.75"

-2023-24*: 0.25"

-Most recent snowfall: 0.25”; January 17th, 2024

-Largest snowfall (single storm): 8.5"; February 12-13, 2021

-Largest snow depth: 14"; 1:30am February 12th, 2019

Temperatures:

-Warmest: 109F; June 28th, 2021

-Coldest: 13F; December 27th, 2021

-Phreeze Count 2023-24: 31

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4 minutes ago, High Desert Mat? said:

After looking at the teleconnections for the next couple weeks and the ensembles, I feel like the next few days are the best shot at a little snow for awhile. Pattern won’t be favorable again until at least the 20th I believe and that kinda sucks. Just hope the mountain snow doesn’t melt too much between now and then. 
 

Also, that 18z I’m betting is a huge outlier. 
 

An SSW event would be welcomed right about now. Any word on that guys?

More like late January, but most likely February until the pattern resets, and even then we have to hope that it just doesn't reset with a dominant SW flow. To quote you, "I, High Desert Mat, have declared that winter is over and it will never snow again." and you would most likely be correct in that statement, should it only apply to your part of Oregon.

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Just now, Snownerd3000 said:

I dont think I was model riding really yet at that time.  Did it show a crazy map like this?

Some greens over the sound on some of those runs

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Weather stats for MBY

Snowfall:

-Total snowfall since joining: 50.25"

-2018-19: 21"

-2019-20: 2.5"

-2020-21: 13"

-2021-22: 8.75"

-2022-23: 5.75"

-2023-24*: 0.25"

-Most recent snowfall: 0.25”; January 17th, 2024

-Largest snowfall (single storm): 8.5"; February 12-13, 2021

-Largest snow depth: 14"; 1:30am February 12th, 2019

Temperatures:

-Warmest: 109F; June 28th, 2021

-Coldest: 13F; December 27th, 2021

-Phreeze Count 2023-24: 31

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43 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Didn't Alaska have a bunch of issues over the summer too? Seems like they need to get their stuff together. Everyone acts like Alaska is so great, but they are incredibly expensive, and don't seem to be super reliable. 

We love Alaska Airlines, have used them many times and never had a problem.  The rewards program is one of the best in my opinion and we have taken several mostly free flights and used the companion ticket to save money over the years.

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25 minutes ago, MR.SNOWMIZER said:

You sure your 42 is correct? I checked stations around there and most were 35-38.

It's a good weather station (belongs to my neighbor), but its a home set up so it can be off a degree or two, but usually not too much. Ferry terminal says 38 now, weather station says 40, so it's certainly possible it's the station lying to me. The weird thing is the station is usually lower than the terminal, so I guess that is more reason to think it's off a bit for whatever reason. 

Either way, I'll report whatever is falling when it gets here. 

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4 minutes ago, Snownerd3000 said:

I dont think I was model riding really yet at that time.  Did it show a crazy map like this?

It was the one time that I recalled it leading the way. It was mocked endlessly and got the last laugh. 

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6 minutes ago, Meatyorologist said:

Some greens over the sound on some of those runs

THE TRAFFIC CAMERAS SHOW BARE AND WET SO ITS OBVIOUS IT ISN'T SNOWING followed by LOOKS LIKE IT TURNS TO A SOUTHERLY FLOW PER THE 9.3Z ON THE ICON-PANASONIC-HRRRRDP.

Good times.

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2 minutes ago, administrator said:

THE TRAFFIC CAMERAS SHOW BARE AND WET SO ITS OBVIOUS IT ISN'T SNOWING followed by LOOKS LIKE IT TURNS TO A SOUTHERLY FLOW PER THE 9.3Z ON THE ICON-PANASONIC-HRRRRDP.

Good times.

The desiccated pile of e-waste I buried beneath the Thornton Creek tributary has been hinting at a ridge around Christmastime. Maybe some retrogression afterwards.

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Weather stats for MBY

Snowfall:

-Total snowfall since joining: 50.25"

-2018-19: 21"

-2019-20: 2.5"

-2020-21: 13"

-2021-22: 8.75"

-2022-23: 5.75"

-2023-24*: 0.25"

-Most recent snowfall: 0.25”; January 17th, 2024

-Largest snowfall (single storm): 8.5"; February 12-13, 2021

-Largest snow depth: 14"; 1:30am February 12th, 2019

Temperatures:

-Warmest: 109F; June 28th, 2021

-Coldest: 13F; December 27th, 2021

-Phreeze Count 2023-24: 31

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Just now, SnowWillarrive said:

Based on what we visually see on radar this looks correct. Possibly an over performing event? 

Sort of fun having no idea what will happen and just watching the radar.

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**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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2 hours ago, jakerepp said:

I already moved to AZ for you all. I can't do anything more.

Where in AZ are you? Closer to Flagstaff???

Garfield County/Pomeroy, WA:

2023-2024 Snowfall totals: 14.3 inches

HIghest snow total (per event): 5.8 inches total 1/11/24 - 1/12/24.

Most recent accumulation (non trace): 0.20 inches on 2/26/24

Days with  trace or more snowfall: 12/01/23 (0.60), 1/8/24 (1.0), 1/10/24 (3.5), 1/11/23 (3.5 inches with Thundersnow; separate event from prior day), 1/12/24 (2.30). 1/14/24 (T), 1/17/24 (1.20 inches), 1/18/24 (1.5 inches), 1/19/24 (0.20), 2/09/24 (0.30), 2/26/24 (0.20-mainly graupel)

First Freeze: 10/27/2023

Last Sub freezing Day: 1/20/24 (12th) (8 days in a row from 1/12/24-1/20/24)

Coldest low: -12F (!!!!!!!!) (1/12/24)

Last White Christmas: 2022 at my location (on ground)

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3 minutes ago, SnowWillarrive said:

Even though the models show paltry amounts. What we see on the radar looks more impressive than almost anything we saw this past week. 

ECMWF shows .30 of precipitation in Seattle tonight.   That is pretty wet.

 

ecmwf-deterministic-washington-total_precip_inch-0076000.png

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**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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The last 5 days so far for this cold snap. Despite it not being very cold we’ve still put up some decent snow numbers. The max of 34 yesterday was fairly impressive. Not easy to get 4 days in a row with measurable snow either. Where I’ve been working the last 2 days near allenmore had probably an inch more in total than I had…just a little more elevation and further from the water is important in these marginal times. 

11/28 40/35

11/29 40/31 0.7”

11/30 41/29 1.2”

12/1   34/25 0.8”

12/2   38/24 0.75”

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