Front Ranger Posted December 3, 2022 Report Share Posted December 3, 2022 1 minute ago, Doinko said: The GFS nails us on Sunday Doubt it will be that much, but the way the situation is evolving is a classic sneaky off-shore setup for Portland. As long as you can get the precip. 5 A forum for the end of the world. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FroYoBro Posted December 3, 2022 Report Share Posted December 3, 2022 1 minute ago, Doinko said: The GFS nails us on Sunday The GFS gives the Portland area a pretty legit snowstorm just 48 hours from now and I don’t even believe it. 3 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Doinko Posted December 3, 2022 Report Share Posted December 3, 2022 Just now, Gradient Keeper said: Temperatures a bit colder too for the system Sunday into Sunday night PDX metro 30-32 I would be very happy if that verified Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KingstonWX Posted December 3, 2022 Report Share Posted December 3, 2022 33 and still nothing but drizzle here, but looks like this heavier band is the one causing everyone to turn over to snow, so I guess we shall see when it arrives. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted December 3, 2022 Report Share Posted December 3, 2022 Day 3 (4-run trend) 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Terreboner Posted December 3, 2022 Report Share Posted December 3, 2022 GFS = Genuine Fake Snow 1 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted December 3, 2022 Report Share Posted December 3, 2022 Amazing difference between the GFS and ECMWF for Sunday... GFS is just insistent on hitting Portland on every run. No wavering. ECMWF has never shown that scenario. 4 **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Popular Post TacomaWx Posted December 3, 2022 Popular Post Report Share Posted December 3, 2022 Wow that was fast getting close to changing over to snow all the sudden. Getting bursts of big flakes on and off. It’s gonna try to do it. 9 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ice_is_Everywhere Posted December 3, 2022 Report Share Posted December 3, 2022 Really coming down here. Big flakes and accumulating everywhere. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Doinko Posted December 3, 2022 Report Share Posted December 3, 2022 NAM and RDPS do give the west metro area some snow Sunday too 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoodCanalBridge Posted December 3, 2022 Report Share Posted December 3, 2022 Rain until about 15 minutes ago when it switched to a rain/snow mix up near the northern portion of the canal. Currently having periods of snow transitioning back and forth to rain/snow mix. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Front Ranger Posted December 3, 2022 Report Share Posted December 3, 2022 Just now, TT-SEA said: Amazing difference between the GFS and ECMWF for Sunday... GFS is just insistent on hitting Portland on every run. No wavering. ECMWF has never shown that scenario. Just as this pattern is hell for the NWS, it's super tricky for the models. Look how much things have changed just in the past 12 hours for what they're showing for the Puget Sound. Low level, legit cold is the hardest for them to deal with. Always take the Euro over GFS, but in cases like this I'm not sure it's that much better for precip type. 3 A forum for the end of the world. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ice_is_Everywhere Posted December 3, 2022 Report Share Posted December 3, 2022 Also, the temp has fallen from 38 to 33, while the dp has stayed at 32. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BLI snowman Posted December 3, 2022 Report Share Posted December 3, 2022 (edited) 7 minutes ago, Front Ranger said: Doubt it will be that much, but the way the situation is evolving is a classic sneaky off-shore setup for Portland. As long as you can get the precip. NAM and GFS both show 0.4"+ now of precip on Sunday for Portland, so decent precip looking increasingly likely at least. Just a sharp disagreement on the depth of the cold air layer over the area. Reality may well be somewhere in the middle, GFS looks overly aggressive as usual with the lower level cooling. Edited December 3, 2022 by BLI snowman 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dhoffine Posted December 3, 2022 Report Share Posted December 3, 2022 Nothing happening in Enumclaw, if though shows snow overhead. Darn east wind? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KingstonWX Posted December 3, 2022 Report Share Posted December 3, 2022 1 minute ago, HoodCanalBridge said: Rain until about 15 minutes ago when it switched to a rain/snow mix up near the northern portion of the canal. Currently having periods of snow transitioning back and forth to rain/snow mix. It's always funny how you get the changeover a bit before me despite being practically next door. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Front Ranger Posted December 3, 2022 Report Share Posted December 3, 2022 Just now, BLI snowman said: NAM and GFS both show 0.4"+ now of precip on Sunday for Portland, so decent precip looking increasingly likely at least now. Just a sharp disagreement on the depth of the cold air layer over the area. Reality may well be somewhere in the middle, GFS looks overly aggressive as usual with the lower level cooling. Yeah. Could see this being an ice-maker for parts of the metro, too. 3 A forum for the end of the world. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KingstonWX Posted December 3, 2022 Report Share Posted December 3, 2022 34 now, but snow is starting to mix in. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted December 3, 2022 Report Share Posted December 3, 2022 Just now, BLI snowman said: NAM and GFS both show 0.4"+ now of precip on Sunday for Portland, so decent precip looking increasingly likely at least now. Just a sharp disagreement on the depth of the cold air layer over the area. Reality may well be somewhere in the middle, GFS looks overly aggressive as usual with the lower level cooling. Yeah, but sometimes the GFS/WRF does pretty good with low level cold and with 36 hours or so of strong east winds I really think immediate PDX metro could be sufficiently cold enough. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jakerepp Posted December 3, 2022 Report Share Posted December 3, 2022 8 minutes ago, jakerepp said: Mother in law says heavy snow in Edmonds now. Radar showed precip overhead for a while before this but she said it was dry. From the video she sent me, 'heavy' appears to be a bit hyperbolic. 1 Home Weather Station Stats for 2023 High - Satans Bunghole Lowest High - Not sure Low - I don't have the data Sub 40 highs - Not quite Sub-freezing highs - Try again Lows below 25 - You're joking Lows below 20 - No 2023 Snowfall - LOL Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Terreboner Posted December 3, 2022 Report Share Posted December 3, 2022 The big question is for those of you posting that it's snowing. Is this phantom snow or the real thing? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
joelgombiner Posted December 3, 2022 Report Share Posted December 3, 2022 Rain drops! AKA falling heat sinks. 1 Useful weather links Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted December 3, 2022 Report Share Posted December 3, 2022 1 minute ago, BLI snowman said: NAM and GFS both show 0.4"+ now of precip on Sunday for Portland, so decent precip looking increasingly likely at least now. Just a sharp disagreement on the depth of the cold air layer over the area. Reality may well be somewhere in the middle, GFS looks overly aggressive as usual with the lower level cooling. Not just about temps... the ECMWF shows barely any precip reaching Portland. 2 **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Randyc321 Posted December 3, 2022 Report Share Posted December 3, 2022 31 minutes ago, SnowPlz said: I don’t want to talk about it You're on Bainbridge, aren't you? We have become the new swamp. You should add it too your profile and be proud. Admins, can we get a "The new Swamp" tag for any Bainbridge residents? A few years ago I would be super upset right now, but I have grown patience. Maybe a half inch total here for the whole week. You win some, you lose some. I have been expecting rain tonight. I got it. 1 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Doinko Posted December 3, 2022 Report Share Posted December 3, 2022 GEM doesn't look bad either 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted December 3, 2022 Report Share Posted December 3, 2022 Day 4 (4-run trend) 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SouthHillFrosty Posted December 3, 2022 Report Share Posted December 3, 2022 IMG_4166.MOV 7 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MR.SNOWMIZER Posted December 3, 2022 Report Share Posted December 3, 2022 Wow more Puget sound snow Tuesday morning lol. Wtf 7 1 We come from the land of the ice and snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowPlz Posted December 3, 2022 Report Share Posted December 3, 2022 1 minute ago, Randyc321 said: You're on Bainbridge, aren't you? We have become the new swamp. You should add it too your profile and be proud. Admins, can we get a "The new Swamp" for any Bainbridge residents? A few years ago I would be super upset right now, but I have grown patience. Maybe a half inch total here for the whole week. You win some, you lose some. I have been expecting rain tonight. I got it. We lose them all on Bainbridge haha 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Front Ranger Posted December 3, 2022 Report Share Posted December 3, 2022 1 minute ago, Randyc321 said: You're on Bainbridge, aren't you? We have become the new swamp. You should add it too your profile and be proud. Admins, can we get a "The new Swamp" for any Bainbridge residents? A few years ago I would be super upset right now, but I have grown patience. Maybe a half inch total here for the whole week. You win some, you lose some. I have been expecting rain tonight. I got it. It's turning to snow all around you...probably will soon for you, too. 4 A forum for the end of the world. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KingstonWX Posted December 3, 2022 Report Share Posted December 3, 2022 1 minute ago, Randyc321 said: You're on Bainbridge, aren't you? We have become the new swamp. You should add it too your profile and be proud. Admins, can we get a "The new Swamp" for any Bainbridge residents? A few years ago I would be super upset right now, but I have grown patience. Maybe a half inch total here for the whole week. You win some, you lose some. I have been expecting rain tonight. I got it. Kingston, Indianola, Suquamish, and Bainbridge always get skunked... until we don't. It's frustrating, but we should expect it at this point. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RentonHill Posted December 3, 2022 Report Share Posted December 3, 2022 2 minutes ago, SouthHillFrosty said: IMG_4166.MOV Ya that’s legit! Nothing like that here yet 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Terreboner Posted December 3, 2022 Report Share Posted December 3, 2022 Just now, Front Ranger said: It's turning to snow all around you...probably will soon for you, too. Not necessarily. I have literally watched it rain in Oregon City, West Linn, Gladstone, Milwaukie while it is a blizzard a few miles down the road. Some areas just are what they are. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BLI snowman Posted December 3, 2022 Report Share Posted December 3, 2022 2 minutes ago, Gradient Keeper said: Yeah, but sometimes the GFS/WRF does pretty good with low level cold and with 36 hours or so of strong east winds I really think immediate PDX metro could be sufficiently cold enough. Definitely possible. Even the Euro's main issue appears to be the precip rates really just being too sparse. If you look at the 18z output it continues to show dewpoints advecting down to 18 at PDX by Sunday early morning. That's a very sufficiently deep layer of continental air, and a general rule of thumb of mine is that <20 dewpoints at PDX means some sort of overrunning. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Christensen87 Posted December 3, 2022 Report Share Posted December 3, 2022 Finally! Now snowing in Covington. 33° 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Randyc321 Posted December 3, 2022 Report Share Posted December 3, 2022 3 minutes ago, KingstonWX said: Kingston, Indianola, Suquamish, and Bainbridge always get skunked... until we don't. It's frustrating, but we should expect it at this point. Yeah, but I love this area. It's worth it. 4 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowWillarrive Posted December 3, 2022 Report Share Posted December 3, 2022 3 minutes ago, RentonHillTC said: Ya that’s legit! Nothing like that here yet Anything falling in the highlands? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Doinko Posted December 3, 2022 Report Share Posted December 3, 2022 Just now, BLI snowman said: Definitely possible. Even the Euro's main issue appears to be the precip rates really just being too sparse. If you look at the 18z output it continues to show dewpoints advecting down to 18 at PDX by Sunday early morning. That's a very sufficiently deep layer of continental air, and a general rule of thumb of mine is that <20 dewpoints at PDX means some sort of overrunning. GEM also looks to be showing a decent amount of precip, though mostly only 1-2" snow west metro and not much east metro. Maybe if that cold is being underdone we could see a nice event. Didn't the Euro also underdo the precip for today's system in the Sound? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BLI snowman Posted December 3, 2022 Report Share Posted December 3, 2022 5 minutes ago, TT-SEA said: Not just about temps... the ECMWF shows barely any precip reaching Portland. Yeah, see my post below. NAM still scours out the cold layer pretty quickly though, despite showing plenty of precip. I think the truth will be somewhere in between. NAM has an almost WAA look to it despite a total lack of any onshore component, so its solution on Sunday evening also looks unlikely IMO. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Terreboner Posted December 3, 2022 Report Share Posted December 3, 2022 1 minute ago, Randyc321 said: Yeah, but I love this area. It's worth it. You know it's a bad area when the ferry arrives with 6" of snow on it and you have rain. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts