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PNW December 2022, winter might be coming; but mostly canceled.


The Blob

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Won't happen as shown, but tremendous potential coming up. 

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Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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2 minutes ago, Kolk1604 said:

Plenty to talk about at Day 5+

Day 10 850s 

ecmwf-deterministic-washington-t850-1105600 (1).png

Really similar to 12/14/16 in some ways. It got cold after that one too. 

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Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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Currently at 1.50 so far. Still snowing but at 30 degrees so I went ahead and measured. The event probably has another hour or so left. Will clear on lunch.

IMG_20221205_110536278.jpg

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Garfield County/Pomeroy, WA:

2023-2024 Snowfall totals: 14.3 inches

HIghest snow total (per event): 5.8 inches total 1/11/24 - 1/12/24.

Most recent accumulation (non trace): 0.20 inches on 2/26/24

Days with  trace or more snowfall: 12/01/23 (0.60), 1/8/24 (1.0), 1/10/24 (3.5), 1/11/23 (3.5 inches with Thundersnow; separate event from prior day), 1/12/24 (2.30). 1/14/24 (T), 1/17/24 (1.20 inches), 1/18/24 (1.5 inches), 1/19/24 (0.20), 2/09/24 (0.30), 2/26/24 (0.20-mainly graupel)

First Freeze: 10/27/2023

Last Sub freezing Day: 1/20/24 (12th) (8 days in a row from 1/12/24-1/20/24)

Coldest low: -12F (!!!!!!!!) (1/12/24)

Last White Christmas: 2022 at my location (on ground)

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10 minutes ago, Kolk1604 said:

I don't remember that. I remember Feb 2017 though. 

As modeled this is not similar to February 2017 IIRC which was more of a huge anafront. 

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Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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1 minute ago, High Desert Mat? said:

Without the arctic air. Ya. 

Enough for TWL to get a sub-freezing high at least. 

sfct.us_nw.png

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Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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2 minutes ago, High Desert Mat? said:

Without the arctic air. Ya. 

Yeah, it's probably more similar to 12/14/16. 

Don't you love how Washington posters always root against our snow chances, obviously doesn't make a difference, but it is annoying.

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Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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This is actually pretty similar to the lows we saw in the days following the 12/14/16 event... Well in Western Oregon

sfct.us_nw.png

Just now, Olive1010 said:

What are setups for snow and winter storms in the willamette valley?

Either cold air getting pulled through the gorge ahead of an approaching front, or a low moving in to our south. Then less common are anafronts, and very cold onshore flow scenarios. 

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Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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1 minute ago, Olive1010 said:

What are setups for snow and winter storms in the willamette valley?

Cold offshore flow and systems approaching from the SW and tracking from about the CA border through central Oregon, give or take.

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My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad.

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10 minutes ago, Olive1010 said:

What are setups for snow and winter storms in the willamette valley?

Great question Olive1010. A big part of getting snow in the willamette valley is avoiding onshore winds. (Wind coming form the relatively warm ocean) This is the reason why the Portland area was able to see some wet snow yeaterday. We had easterly offshore winds which help to give us lower dew points and avoid any kind of warmup from the ocean air. This can be done when we get lows or storms to move in south of our location. (Or as they approach from the west until they move north of us) 

Edited by FroYoBro
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10 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Yeah, it's probably more similar to 12/14/16. 

Don't you love how Washington posters always root against our snow chances, obviously doesn't make a difference, but it is annoying.

Who does that? I have admittedly only been here for a few years, but I don't recall seeing any such behavior.

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5 minutes ago, Olive1010 said:

What are setups for snow and winter storms in the willamette valley?

Like Andrew said, anafront setups with stalled frontal boundaries can work out well too. Usually pretty fleeting and hard to pinpoint.

The valley can occasionally score during an Arctic onset pattern and surface low dropping down the coast with the cold shortwave circa 12/14/08.

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My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad.

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12 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Yeah, it's probably more similar to 12/14/16. 

Don't you love how Washington posters always root against our snow chances, obviously doesn't make a difference, but it is annoying.

Lol I’m fine with missing out on next week here. Just got 5”. I’m also far enough south here that if PDX is getting snow…we’re on the northern end of it like yesterday and getting snowfall as well. Willamette valley is due. 

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13 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Yeah, it's probably more similar to 12/14/16. 

Don't you love how Washington posters always root against our snow chances, obviously doesn't make a difference, but it is annoying.

I never do man, if anything i vote for it. I know how i feel when i get missed so why would i want people i care for to feel that way. Not my style.

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We come from the land of the ice and snow.

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31 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Really similar to 12/14/16 in some ways. It got cold after that one too. 

Maybe the Saturday low can take an optimal track like the GFS shows. Also I think there was a snow/ice storm on 12/8/2016 as well. I think we had 1-2" with that and some ice.

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2 minutes ago, Deweydog said:

Like Andrew said, anafront setups with stalled frontal boundaries can work out well too. Usually pretty fleeting and hard to pinpoint.

The valley can occasionally score during an Arctic onset pattern and surface low dropping down the coast with the cold shortwave circa 12/14/08.

What was the setup for the snow on 2/4/2019? We had a slushy inch with that.

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1 minute ago, MR.SNOWMIZER said:

I never do man, if anything i vote for it. I know how i feel when i get missed so why would i want people i care for to feel that way. Not my style.

I probably shouldn't have brought up my sour grapes. Just saying if we get a suppressed low here or there, W. Washington is still more of a favorable location overall, and with jet suppression its probably going to be colder up there. Even though whether or not the WV gets snow means little to snow up here, I still root hard for them. 

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Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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2 minutes ago, TacomaWx said:

Really nice euro run. Shows a bit of snow up here as well and pretty darn chilly. 850mb temps at -10C at the end and fairly chilly-cold throughout the run. 

It's really chilly by this weekend even. 

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Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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1 minute ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

I probably shouldn't have brought up my sour grapes. Just saying if we get a suppressed low here or there, W. Washington is still more of a favorable location overall, and with jet suppression its probably going to be colder up there. Even though whether or not the WV gets snow means little to snow up here, I still root hard for them. 

We all get greedy with our snow but i don't enjoy watching other posters suffer because they miss out. WE are all pathetic when it comes to missing out on snow lol. 

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We come from the land of the ice and snow.

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1 minute ago, Doinko said:

What was the setup for the snow on 2/4/2019? We had a slushy inch with that.

I think that was just scud associated with a weak northerly wind shift after a period of cold onshore flow if memory serves.

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My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad.

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1 minute ago, MR.SNOWMIZER said:

We all get greedy with our snow but i don't enjoy watching other posters suffer because they miss out. WE are all pathetic when it comes to missing out on snow lol. 

Would’ve been nice if the willamette valley had done better last week. Even just one solid event. They got some but really this week ended up mostly north of chehalis. It’s a lot more fun when everyone atleast gets something sucks to see some people watch the forum with cold rain while others get hammered but unfortunately that’s part of our climate. 

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