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PNW December 2022, winter might be coming; but mostly canceled.


The Blob

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35.8° and we still have this misty drizzle falling. Or...hovering around. Still a bit foggy too. 

I vote no wind and more snow. My janky fake gates can't handle the wind and I'd like to keep the doggos IN the yard. lol Plus, if the wind is big enough Mister ends up having to go into work. (He works for TPU. He's not in the field anymore, he's what I affectionately refer to as an "office b*tch" now. Lol)

 

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2 minutes ago, administrator said:

I'm going to enjoy this dopamine high until someone from North Bend inevitably shares a Judah tweet about how the EPS has shifted all of the blue on the map between Baltimore and Boston and a mega ridge with SW flow will make the local palm trees sing Mele Kalikimaka.

eddie GIF

Eddie is the Euro. You can guess who the GFS is. 

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2016-2017 was nice. Definitely shared the wealth as a whole-- even 1/10/17 notwithstanding. I would welcome a repeat this year.

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"Let's mosey!"

 

--Cloud Strife

 

------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 

Top 5 Snow Events (post 2014):

 

(1. January 10th, 2017: 18.5 in.

(2. February 6th, 2014: 7.5 inches

(3. February 20th, 2018: 5.0 inches

(4. February 21st, 2018: 4.0 inches

(5. December 14th, 2016: 3.5 inches

 

Honourable Mentions: December 7th, 2018, February 9th, 2019.

 

Total since joining the Weather Forums: 3"

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20 minutes ago, administrator said:

I'm going to enjoy this dopamine high until someone from North Bend inevitably shares a Judah tweet about how the EPS has shifted all of the blue on the map between Baltimore and Boston and a mega ridge with SW flow will make the local palm trees sing Mele Kalikimaka.

@Hawksfan2008would not do that.   ;)

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**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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1 minute ago, Cascadia_Wx said:

We’ll be in Reykjavik that whole week, so I’ll take your bet in króna.

me staring at my Norwegian Krone pile i've had for decades thinking this might be the perfect opportunity to get it out of here by hoping you wont notice the difference: BOOK IT

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1 hour ago, Olive1010 said:

What are setups for snow and winter storms in the willamette valley?

A few good ones. Best scenario is usually overrunning moisture atop established cold offshore flow out of the Gorge-- this usually occurs when a storm is either far enough south or comes in at an angle where southerly flow doesn't immediately scour out our cold air. 12/20/2008 is a great example of a very moist system arriving over frigid and extremely strong offshore winds-- therefore dumping a huge amount of snow. Occasionally when the airmass is cold enough we can do pretty well with "BC sliders" that dive down the coast from the north, or even cold onshore flow if things are chilly enough (though a pattern like this would absolutely favor the foothills and areas of higher elevation). Anafront setups with stalled boundaries are also a potential avenue into snow-- though I'd argue that these are some of the most inconsistent and difficult to predict setups for this area, requiring precise timing and placement of precipitation. 

A few of each kind:

Suppressed low to the south with cold offshore flow in place: 2/6/2014, 1/1/2004, 1/10/2017

Pacific storm with copious moisture over cold offshore flow dragged in: 12/20/2008, 2/13/2021, 12/28/1996

Cold lows dropping in from the north: 12/14/2008, 2/20/2018, 2/22/2018

Cold onshore flow with chilly maritime airmass: 12/24/2021

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"Let's mosey!"

 

--Cloud Strife

 

------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 

Top 5 Snow Events (post 2014):

 

(1. January 10th, 2017: 18.5 in.

(2. February 6th, 2014: 7.5 inches

(3. February 20th, 2018: 5.0 inches

(4. February 21st, 2018: 4.0 inches

(5. December 14th, 2016: 3.5 inches

 

Honourable Mentions: December 7th, 2018, February 9th, 2019.

 

Total since joining the Weather Forums: 3"

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6 minutes ago, MossMan said:

Are these scud clouds going to skedaddle tonight? 

ECMWF says low clouds fill in everywhere this evening and stay until Thursday. 

Low clouds are already pretty thick here... much more melting happening then when it was sunny and the same temperature on Saturday.  

 

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**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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1 hour ago, administrator said:

My Grandma-in-Law who is with us has been on about how this year feels like the ones of her childhood, so that might be something, or that might mean Grandma needs her meds adjusted.

old timers in these parts, "feels like a good 'ol Fashioned winter". 

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1 hour ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Yeah, it's probably more similar to 12/14/16. 

Don't you love how Washington posters always root against our snow chances, obviously doesn't make a difference, but it is annoying.

Really wish we could get a massive regional wide 8"+ snow event in the lowlands kind of like in the Midwest, from Medford to Vancouver, BC. It's just not possible, is it? Wish we could all score somehow. 

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𝘐𝘯 𝘮𝘺 𝘳𝘦𝘴𝘵𝘭𝘦𝘴𝘴 𝘥𝘳𝘦𝘢𝘮𝘴,

𝘐 𝘴𝘦𝘦 𝘵𝘩𝘢𝘵 𝘵𝘰𝘸𝘯.

𝘗𝘶𝘺𝘢𝘭𝘭𝘶𝘱.

Reddit: HotlineMaestro

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1 minute ago, HuskyMaestro said:

Really wish we could get a massive regional wide 8"+ snow event in the lowlands kind of like in the Midwest, from Medford to Vancouver, BC. It's just not possible, is it? Wish we could all score somehow. 

Best is probably something like 2008 which featured multiple events with multiple tracks, to the point that just about everyone scored well, even though not everyone scored from every event.

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It's called clown range for a reason.

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1 minute ago, RentonHillTC said:

too bad we just skipped fall

Fall lasted like 2 weeks in late October and early November then just went straight to winter basically. It’s crazy how we went from mid 80s and smoke to snow in about 6 weeks. There was even some lowland snow in early November so more like 3 weeks .

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2 hours ago, smerfylicious said:

In case anyone is wondering the mountains are currently very happyScreenshot_20221205_112206_Drive.thumb.jpg.7fedd5fb5bf4c182c70867f3f87e5163.jpg

In the south and central sections yes, but the Olympics and North Cascades look about average. Now if the GFS verified all regions would be very happy.

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Home Wx Station Stats (Since January 2008):

Max Temp: 96.3F (2009)   Min Temp: 2.0F (2008)   Max Wind Gust: 45 mph (2018, 2021)   Wettest Day: 2.34 (11/4/22)   Avg Yearly Precip: 37"   10yr Avg Snow: 8.0"

Snowfall Totals

'08-09: 30" | '09-10: 0.5" | '10-11: 21" | '11-12: 9.5" | '12-13: 0.2" | '13-14: 6.2" | '14-15: 0.0" | '15-16: 0.25"| '16-17: 8.0" | '17-18: 0.9"| '18-19: 11.5" | '19-20: 11" | '20-21: 10.5" | '21-22: 21.75" | '22-23: 10.0" 

2023-24: 7.0" (1/17: 3", 1/18: 1.5", 2/26: 0.5", 3/4: 2.0", Flakes: 1/11, 1/16)

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1 hour ago, administrator said:

My Grandma-in-Law who is with us has been on about how this year feels like the ones of her childhood, so that might be something, or that might mean Grandma needs her meds adjusted.

My boss's Aunt Bonnie who is known to have dreams and visions that occasionally come true, had one not long ago where we got 3 feet of snow! It reminded me of the GFS.

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3 minutes ago, Rubus Leucodermis said:

Best is probably something like 2008 which featured multiple events with multiple tracks, to the point that just about everyone scored well, even though not everyone scored from every event.

Will always love the winter of that year. I was mainly thinking of a large widespread single snow event where everyone scores at the same time. Just ain't possible probably with the microclimates but it doesn't stop me from wishing it, lol.

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𝘐𝘯 𝘮𝘺 𝘳𝘦𝘴𝘵𝘭𝘦𝘴𝘴 𝘥𝘳𝘦𝘢𝘮𝘴,

𝘐 𝘴𝘦𝘦 𝘵𝘩𝘢𝘵 𝘵𝘰𝘸𝘯.

𝘗𝘶𝘺𝘢𝘭𝘭𝘶𝘱.

Reddit: HotlineMaestro

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Crazy when you think how little we know about past weather events here, talking going back 500 years.

I always sit and wonder what we are capable of, and how much snow has fallen around here in the biggest events. I'm sure there was events much bigger than even 1880. Given how we are able to pull steady arctic air in here and having the ocean so close that if everything played out perfect we could really have some outrages storms around here.

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We come from the land of the ice and snow.

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13 minutes ago, HuskyMaestro said:

Will always love the winter of that year. I was mainly thinking of a large widespread single snow event where everyone scores at the same time. Just ain't possible probably with the microclimates but it doesn't stop me from wishing it, lol.

The most widespread regional events have mostly come from systems associated with strong Arctic fronts. Those have been known to deliver accumulations all the way from Bellingham to Salem or even Eugene.

But as has been well-documented, quite a while since the PNW has seen one.

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A forum for the end of the world.

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1 hour ago, TacomaWx said:

February 2021. Didn’t go too far south of PDX though. 

12/20/08 and 1/6/2004 were the most widespread ones I can think of. 1/1/2004 was pretty widespread too if I recall. I know PDX to Eugene got snow, and I thought Seattle did too. 

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Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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22 minutes ago, TacomaWx said:

Fall lasted like 2 weeks in late October and early November then just went straight to winter basically. It’s crazy how we went from mid 80s and smoke to snow in about 6 weeks. There was even some lowland snow in early November so more like 3 weeks .

We never had a fall up here this year... Or much of a spring either. Snow falling (though not sticking) in May, and then accumulating snow on November 2nd after a record warm October. Bonkers. 

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Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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