snow_wizard Posted December 6, 2022 Report Share Posted December 6, 2022 We shall see soon enough if the good model runs today are real or not. Nice to see the GFS and ECMWF both delivered today. 2 Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 45 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted December 6, 2022 Report Share Posted December 6, 2022 2 minutes ago, High Desert Mat? said: I find it hard that western New York doesn’t have snow cover. About all they've had is the Lake Effect event and that was isolated. Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 45 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snownerd3000 Posted December 6, 2022 Report Share Posted December 6, 2022 20 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said: How did the euro weeklies look? I may have missed them. I posted them earlier today. Very similar look to the Gefs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snownerd3000 Posted December 6, 2022 Report Share Posted December 6, 2022 24 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said: Well at least we aren’t totally torching either. Could end up pretty chilly at the surface too. Could all this be priming the system for an epic January? Shows us at least cold at the surface 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BLI snowman Posted December 6, 2022 Report Share Posted December 6, 2022 4 hours ago, TT-SEA said: ECMWF says low clouds fill in everywhere this evening and stay until Thursday. Low clouds are already pretty thick here... much more melting happening then when it was sunny and the same temperature on Saturday. Definitely noticed my snow got vaporized pretty quick this afternoon when the fog rolled in, even as the air temperature dropped. High of 38 today here and my snow is pretty well gone. Kept a snowball in the freezer a la Mossman in case this is it for the season. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted December 6, 2022 Report Share Posted December 6, 2022 3 minutes ago, BLI snowman said: Definitely noticed my snow got vaporized pretty quick this afternoon when the fog rolled in, even as the air temperature dropped. High of 38 today here and my snow is pretty well gone. Kept a snowball in the freezer a la Mossman in case this is it for the season. Oh ye of little faith. Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Popular Post smerfylicious Posted December 6, 2022 Popular Post Report Share Posted December 6, 2022 Alright calling my shot now for January. Mid-month arctic blast that keeps temps north of the Columbia below freezing max for 8 days. South of will be balmy and early spring flowers will begin to bloom As for snow? Randy wins with 4 feet of powder and opens his own ski resort at home. Trace-2" at Jim's house, who calls it an all time bust. Tim's power will be out for 3 weeks and he will evac himself to the Bahamas until March. 5 1 7 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Winterdog Posted December 6, 2022 Report Share Posted December 6, 2022 32 after a low of 20 and a high of 34 today. Highs in the 30’s are getting to be the norm lately. Loving the cool weather. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MossMan Posted December 6, 2022 Report Share Posted December 6, 2022 41 minutes ago, TT-SEA said: Soupy air is on its way north. ECMWF shows dewpoints in the mid to upper 30 up there tomorrow as well. It was very gunky and drippy here today. Guess I better enjoy tonight then, currently 32.2 with a DP of 31. 1 2 1 Elevation 580’ Location a few miles east of I-5 on the Snohomish Co side of the Snohomish/Skagit border. I love snow/cold AND sun/warmth! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BLI snowman Posted December 6, 2022 Report Share Posted December 6, 2022 31 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said: Oh ye of little faith. Can never let your guard down here in the boglands. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Iceresistance Posted December 6, 2022 Report Share Posted December 6, 2022 Are Y'all ready for this? No #DeathRidgeDecember ! 3 1 1 Never say Never with Weather, because anything is possible! All observations are in Tecumseh, OK unless otherwise noted Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BLI snowman Posted December 6, 2022 Report Share Posted December 6, 2022 1 hour ago, Doinko said: 44/30 at PDX today, not bad. Big difference north of about SR-500 in Vancouver. 38/31 here after a 37/30 yesterday. PDX feels like a different world a lot of the time. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Doinko Posted December 6, 2022 Report Share Posted December 6, 2022 1 minute ago, BLI snowman said: Big difference north of about SR-500 in Vancouver. 38/31 here after a 37/30 yesterday. PDX feels like a different world a lot of the time. Looks like we got into the upper 40s in the Washington County banana belt. Pretty sunny too 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
joelgombiner Posted December 6, 2022 Report Share Posted December 6, 2022 Still a solid snow cover in Seattle above 400 feet. Different story below 300 feet. 2 Useful weather links Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RCola Posted December 6, 2022 Report Share Posted December 6, 2022 2 hours ago, MR.SNOWMIZER said: Something like 1880 with today's population would be absolute insanity. The thought of a widespread 3-5ft on the ground is nutty. Experienced that once during the 2010 series of Mid-Atlantic storms on the East Coast. 4 feet of snow between three blizzards back to back to back. It was an incredible experience---one that I hope anyone who loves snow gets to enjoy at least once in a lifetime. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BLI snowman Posted December 6, 2022 Report Share Posted December 6, 2022 1 hour ago, Deweydog said: We had a couple hours of rain/snow mix! We had 1-2" of slop on the evening of the 28th here. Wasn't great but not a total shutout. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
joelgombiner Posted December 6, 2022 Report Share Posted December 6, 2022 Anyone seeing any flurries up in the north sound? 1 Useful weather links Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BLI snowman Posted December 6, 2022 Report Share Posted December 6, 2022 3 minutes ago, Doinko said: Looks like we got into the upper 40s in the Washington County banana belt. Pretty sunny too Wow, low clouds got going pretty early in the afternoon here. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brennan Posted December 6, 2022 Report Share Posted December 6, 2022 1 minute ago, joelgombiner said: Anyone seeing any flurries up in the north sound? We’ve had off and on flurries here. Solid frost cover on top of the dusting of snow we got a few days ago. 32*. Been nice here lately. Cold, mostly clear with some high clouds. Feels like winter. Like December should feel. 5 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snownerd3000 Posted December 6, 2022 Report Share Posted December 6, 2022 Prepping for the 18z 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted December 6, 2022 Report Share Posted December 6, 2022 Precip blossoming on the radar around Everett and to the southeast of there. 1 1 **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tyler Mode Posted December 6, 2022 Report Share Posted December 6, 2022 Forecast was 47 today...hit 36. Cloudy all day, until evening, now it's foggy. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
joelgombiner Posted December 6, 2022 Report Share Posted December 6, 2022 1 minute ago, TT-SEA said: Precip blossoming on the radar around Everett and to the southeast of there. Just noticing that... 3 Useful weather links Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deweydog Posted December 6, 2022 Report Share Posted December 6, 2022 15 minutes ago, BLI snowman said: We had 1-2" of slop on the evening of the 28th here. Wasn't great but not a total shutout. Yeah, I was out at the coast at the time. 1 My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Requiem Posted December 6, 2022 Report Share Posted December 6, 2022 20 minutes ago, Iceresistance said: Are Y'all ready for this? No #DeathRidgeDecember ! Uh uh last time you hashtagged something you willed a bunch of ridges into existence so I'll be working against this manifestation thank you very much "Let's mosey!" --Cloud Strife ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ Top 5 Snow Events (post 2014): (1. January 10th, 2017: 18.5 in.(2. February 6th, 2014: 7.5 inches(3. February 20th, 2018: 5.0 inches(4. February 21st, 2018: 4.0 inches(5. December 14th, 2016: 3.5 inches Honourable Mentions: December 7th, 2018, February 9th, 2019. Total since joining the Weather Forums: 3" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Popular Post Kolk1604 Posted December 6, 2022 Popular Post Report Share Posted December 6, 2022 I'm bored waiting for tonight's 00z runs. Plenty of Pepto on the GEFS 35 day snowfall forecast. Lock it in? 9 1 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tyler Mode Posted December 6, 2022 Report Share Posted December 6, 2022 20 minutes ago, BLI snowman said: Big difference north of about SR-500 in Vancouver. 38/31 here after a 37/30 yesterday. PDX feels like a different world a lot of the time. Yes worked in Portland, pretty much sunny start to finish. And ya, right around SR-500 was the change to cloud cover. 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
smerfylicious Posted December 6, 2022 Report Share Posted December 6, 2022 4 minutes ago, joelgombiner said: Just noticing that... Radar blowing up right over me and I see nothing 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MossMan Posted December 6, 2022 Report Share Posted December 6, 2022 6 minutes ago, joelgombiner said: Just noticing that... Of course it’s too far south again. 1 Elevation 580’ Location a few miles east of I-5 on the Snohomish Co side of the Snohomish/Skagit border. I love snow/cold AND sun/warmth! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
joelgombiner Posted December 6, 2022 Report Share Posted December 6, 2022 Just now, smerfylicious said: Radar blowing up right over me and I see nothing Keep us posted! I think the precip is related to an upper level low. 1 Useful weather links Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gusky Posted December 6, 2022 Report Share Posted December 6, 2022 11 minutes ago, TT-SEA said: Precip blossoming on the radar around Everett and to the southeast of there. Only nearby mPING report so far is near Monroe with a drizzle... and it's 32/33 there. Not fun. 1 My Weather Station: https://ambientweather.net/dashboard/b415ff35b2d13f00c899051028f04466 Located in North Seattle, elevation ~150ft. Highest temperature ever recorded is 110.3, lowest is 14.5. My Twitter Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Iceresistance Posted December 6, 2022 Report Share Posted December 6, 2022 9 minutes ago, Requiem said: Uh uh last time you hashtagged something you willed a bunch of ridges into existence so I'll be working against this manifestation thank you very much I was afraid that the Hashtag would age poorly, it could do it again! Never say Never with Weather, because anything is possible! All observations are in Tecumseh, OK unless otherwise noted Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lowlandsnow Posted December 6, 2022 Report Share Posted December 6, 2022 Regional arctic outbreak in January only 40 days out 4 1 2 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
High Desert Mat? Posted December 6, 2022 Report Share Posted December 6, 2022 10 minutes ago, Tyler Mode said: Yes worked in Portland, pretty much sunny start to finish. And ya, right around SR-500 was the change to cloud cover. 31 minutes ago, BLI snowman said: Big difference north of about SR-500 in Vancouver. 38/31 here after a 37/30 yesterday. PDX feels like a different world a lot of the time. Big difference? That’s 7 degrees total. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Terreboner Posted December 6, 2022 Report Share Posted December 6, 2022 Just now, High Desert Mat? said: Big difference? That’s 7 degrees total. Better than a 7 inch difference. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kolk1604 Posted December 6, 2022 Report Share Posted December 6, 2022 2 minutes ago, lowlandsnow said: Regional arctic outbreak in January only 40 days out Wow... 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Popular Post Skagit Weather Posted December 6, 2022 Popular Post Report Share Posted December 6, 2022 There was a discussion earlier of how this year was the "Year without a Fall" in the PNW as a result of the September/October torch and the November freeze. I was interested in if there was a way to actually quantify this for some cities in Western Washington (I'm too lazy to do Oregon, but the data and analysis is quite simple to find/complete if you're interested). I first wondered if I could look at monthly averages. If you have a steep drop off from September to October or October to November in average temperatures then it may suggest you "skipped fall." The problem with such coarse analysis is what happens if the pattern change happens midway through the month? Then October ends up average even if the first half of the month was significantly above average and the second half was significantly below. Instead I decided to look at individual highs for each day during the meteorological fall (September 1 to November 30) and compare them to average values. Clearly meteorological fall is a better measure than astronomical fall because by December 21st most of the area has already bottomed out for high temperatures. I only looked at high temperatures because as discussed on here before, the average person probably doesn't pay that much attention to the low for the day. I could have also looked at precipitation, but that would have made the analysis more difficult and I'm not sure how you would distinguish summer precipitation from fall precipitation from winter precipitation. For Seattle (SEA), Bellingham (BLI), and Olympia (OLM) I looked at how many days each station had where the high temperature was outside the bounds of the average high temperature between September 1st and November 30th. For example, the average high at SEA on September 1st is 75F and the average high at SEA on November 30th is 49F. So I counted up how many days in each year of record the high was 75F or above (I decided to include the boundary values) and how many days the high was below 50F. I've included the top 10 years for each city below. Seattle In the period of record, autumn 2022 was the least "fall-like" on record. Only 56% of the days (total of 40 out of 91) featured a high between 50F and 75F. The next closest year was 1994 with 59% of days being "fall-like." In case you're wondering, 2016 and 1954 were the most "fall-like" autumns in Seattle with 91% and 92% (respectively) of the high temperatures falling within the normal range. Bellingham Bellingham is cooler than Seattle by September 1st with an average high of 71F, and because of that the warm Sept/Oct were even more anomalous. 1/3 of the season featured highs warmer than the autumn maximum and almost 50% of all the days were outside of the 49-70 range. This was significantly more outlier days than any other year (1975 featured 62% of "fall-like" days) while 2018 was the most "fall-like" with 91% of days falling within the normal range. Olympia Olympia starts September with an average high of 76F and ends November with an average high of 47F. Once again, 2022 was the least "fall-like" by a wide margin with 40 days (56%) which fell outside of the normal bounds. 1994 was next closest with 64% of abnormally warm or cool days. The most "fall-like" year for Olympia was 1954 (same as Seattle) when a full 95% of autumn days had highs that were within the normal range. 22 1 Home Wx Station Stats (Since January 2008): Max Temp: 96.3F (2009) Min Temp: 2.0F (2008) Max Wind Gust: 45 mph (2018, 2021) Wettest Day: 2.34 (11/4/22) Avg Yearly Precip: 37" 10yr Avg Snow: 8.0" Snowfall Totals '08-09: 30" | '09-10: 0.5" | '10-11: 21" | '11-12: 9.5" | '12-13: 0.2" | '13-14: 6.2" | '14-15: 0.0" | '15-16: 0.25"| '16-17: 8.0" | '17-18: 0.9"| '18-19: 11.5" | '19-20: 11" | '20-21: 10.5" | '21-22: 21.75" | '22-23: 10.0" 2023-24: 7.0" (1/17: 3", 1/18: 1.5", 2/26: 0.5", 3/4: 2.0", Flakes: 1/11, 1/16) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Doinko Posted December 6, 2022 Report Share Posted December 6, 2022 2 minutes ago, Skagit Weather said: There was a discussion earlier of how this year was the "Year without a Fall" in the PNW as a result of the September/October torch and the November freeze. I was interested in if there was a way to actually quantify this for some cities in Western Washington (I'm too lazy to do Oregon, but the data and analysis is quite simple to find/complete if you're interested). I first wondered if I could look at monthly averages. If you have a steep drop off from September to October or October to November in average temperatures then it may suggest you "skipped fall." The problem with such coarse analysis is what happens if the pattern change happens midway through the month? Then October ends up average even if the first half of the month was significantly above average and the second half was significantly below. Instead I decided to look at individual highs for each day during the meteorological fall (September 1 to November 30) and compare them to average values. Clearly meteorological fall is a better measure than astronomical fall because by December 21st most of the area has already bottomed out for high temperatures. I only looked at high temperatures because as discussed on here before, the average person probably doesn't pay that much attention to the low for the day. I could have also looked at precipitation, but that would have made the analysis more difficult and I'm not sure how you would distinguish summer precipitation from fall precipitation from winter precipitation. For Seattle (SEA), Bellingham (BLI), and Olympia (OLM) I looked at how many days each station had where the high temperature was outside the bounds of the average high temperature between September 1st and November 30th. For example, the average high at SEA on September 1st is 75F and the average high at SEA on November 30th is 49F. So I counted up how many days in each year of record the high was 75F or above (I decided to include the boundary values) and how many days the high was below 50F. I've included the top 10 years for each city below. Seattle In the period of record, autumn 2022 was the least "fall-like" on record. Only 56% of the days (total of 40 out of 91) featured a high between 50F and 75F. The next closest year was 1994 with 59% of days being "fall-like." In case you're wondering, 2016 and 1954 were the most "fall-like" autumns in Seattle with 91% and 92% (respectively) of the high temperatures falling within the normal range. Bellingham Bellingham is cooler than Seattle by September 1st with an average high of 71F, and because of that the warm Sept/Oct were even more anomalous. 1/3 of the season featured highs warmer than the autumn maximum and almost 50% of all the days were outside of the 49-70 range. This was significantly more outlier days than any other year (1975 featured 62% of "fall-like" days) while 2018 was the most "fall-like" with 91% of days falling within the normal range. Olympia Olympia starts September with an average high of 76F and ends November with an average high of 47F. Once again, 2022 was the least "fall-like" by a wide margin with 40 days (56%) which fell outside of the normal bounds. 1994 was next closest with 64% of abnormally warm or cool days. The most "fall-like" year for Olympia was 1954 (same as Seattle) when a full 95% of autumn days had highs that were within the normal range. This is an amazing analysis! I'm surprised that 2016 was one of the most fall-like. That had a very warm November. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nov1985 Posted December 6, 2022 Report Share Posted December 6, 2022 Anyone in the mood for some warm light snow on Thursday night? 00z NAM is. 6 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MossMan Posted December 6, 2022 Report Share Posted December 6, 2022 3 minutes ago, Nov1985 said: Anyone in the mood for some warm light snow on Thursday night? 00z NAM is. I’m in the blue!! 1 Elevation 580’ Location a few miles east of I-5 on the Snohomish Co side of the Snohomish/Skagit border. I love snow/cold AND sun/warmth! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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