PNW December 2022, winter might be coming; but mostly canceled.

[umadbro]

46 minutes ago, Olive1010 said:

So what are the chances here? Because wouldn't the NWS be mentioning it?

You gotta start absorbing the information.

[Cascadia_Wx]

20 minutes ago, Omegaraptor said:

Corvallis and Eugene pulled out highs of 37 today. Yeah, it was technically “fake cold” but it was properly chilly and wintry and helping us get a cold monthly average either way.

No, we’re actually under a trough right now. Upper levels are cool as well. I believe 850s are -2 to -3 or so at the moment.

[smerfylicious]

46 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

I'm sure frustrated by this muck that has settled in here.  Really ruining the low temps in this area.

33 degree rain pissing on my snow right now

[Weiner Warrior]

[Gradient Keeper]

3 minutes ago, Cascadia_Wx said:

No, we’re actually under a trough right now. Upper levels are cool as well. I believe 850s are -2 to -3 or so at the moment.

Yeah -2.5c PDX

[smerfylicious]

49 minutes ago, Olive1010 said:

So what are the chances here? Because wouldn't the NWS be mentioning it?

The south sound got smacked and the NWS was quiet until 3 hours into the event.

Listen to and trust Gradient, Meatyerologist (I can't spell), Phil, Tim and Jim for odds. Only trust Jim if everyone else is on board though, he is the most optimistic of us all.

[Gradient Keeper]

Day 4

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

26 minutes ago, VancouverIslandSouth said:

The ICON also shows a much nicer track for the low than the GFS next Saturday. It comes ashore just south of the Olympics.

Yep.

[Kolk1604]

If you believe 10:1 ratio, some snow Friday. Super marginal though 

[Omegaraptor]

7 minutes ago, Cascadia_Wx said:

No, we’re actually under a trough right now. Upper levels are cool as well. I believe 850s are -2 to -3 or so at the moment.

The inversion definitely helped the central and south valley stay cold, though. HIO got into the mid-40s.

[Requiem]

2 minutes ago, smerfylicious said:

The south sound got smacked and the NWS was quiet until 3 hours into the event.

Listen to and trust Gradient, Meatyerologist (I can't spell), Phil, Tim and Jim for odds. Only trust Jim if everyone else is on board though, he is the most optimistic of us all.

I'd add Dewey and BLIsnowman to that list as well-- particularly relevant to the PDX area.

[Kolk1604]

Hour 99, things still look good. Arctic air sliding south through BC 

[SnowWillarrive]

2 minutes ago, Kolk1604 said:

Hour 99, things still look good. Arctic air sliding south through BC 

Snow incoming.

[Gradient Keeper]

Day 5

[Weiner Warrior]

Which one is correct....

[Kolk1604]

Day 5 850s still look good. 

[Gummy]

Just now, Weiner Warrior said:

Which one is correct....

A mix of both. Trace to 2 inches of slushy 33 degree snow for those south of Shoreline and below 400 feet.

[Cascadia_Wx]

9 minutes ago, Omegaraptor said:

The inversion definitely helped the central and south valley stay cold, though. HIO got into the mid-40s.

Sun.

[Gradient Keeper]

Day 6

[Kolk1604]

Day 6 850s 

[Poulsbo Snowman]

1 minute ago, Kolk1604 said:

Day 6 850s 

A lot deeper too.

[snow_wizard]

Thank the ridge bridge for the success of this ECMWF run!

[Gradient Keeper]

Day 7

[snow_wizard]

That split block scenario seems to be locking in.  Really odd pattern, but it works.

[Gradient Keeper]

Ridge bridge coming?

[OysterPrintout]

28 minutes ago, smerfylicious said:

The south sound got smacked and the NWS was quiet until 3 hours into the event.

Listen to and trust Gradient, Meatyerologist (I can't spell), Phil, Tim and Jim for odds. Only trust Jim if everyone else is on board though, he is the most optimistic of us all.

I think most reasonable folks here would agree NWS might miss on some of the micro features that we might all analyze to death but generally speaking they are talented professionals not outclassed by even the best of the weather forum elite.

[Gradient Keeper]

Day 8

[SnarkyGoblin]

Not quite as cold this run but solid nonetheless.

[Kolk1604]

Highs Sunday and Monday in the mid 30s 

[Weiner Warrior]

BOOM

[DeepFriedEgg]

Marginal and weak describes the winter so far.

[SouthHillFrosty]

Best frame of the run…….

[Gradient Keeper]

Day 9'er Weird looking high pressure complex over Canada and the Arctic.

[Winterdog]

A big drop off from the 12Z.  Nothing to see here. Too bad the GFS is a total clown show.  32 and cloudy.

[DeepFriedEgg]

Just now, SouthHillFrosty said:

Best frame of the run…….

And it still sucks. Phantom snow for Seattle and rain for PDX.

[Gradient Keeper]

PDX sees a marginal event again. Decent CAA with those strong east winds. Looks good east of I-205 and a definite Winter Storm for the Gorge.

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

3 minutes ago, Gradient Keeper said:

Day 9'er Weird looking high pressure complex over Canada and the Arctic.

Looks like the block is trying to hitch hike 

[DeepFriedEgg]

Eye-bleed inducing low tracks. 

[Poulsbo Snowman]

3 minutes ago, Gradient Keeper said:

Day 9'er Weird looking high pressure complex over Canada and the Arctic.

Looks like the Day After Tomorrow.

[Kolk1604]

3 minutes ago, DeepFriedEgg said:

And it still sucks. Phantom snow for Seattle and rain for PDX.

Yeah not really. Dew points look good