PNW December 2022, winter might be coming; but mostly canceled.

[Cascadia_Wx]

Just now, DeepFriedEgg said:

Eye-bleed inducing low tracks. 

Eye-bleed inducing posts.

[Weiner Warrior]

Great Euro run. Lot's of potential

 

[Kolk1604]

850s do drop again and it looks like cold air is reorganizing in BC 

[Gradient Keeper]

Day 10

[DeepFriedEgg]

This ain't it chief. Need pattern reset.

[Gradient Keeper]

Pretty good run. A lot of potential. Focusing on Day 4 to 6 at this point. Seems like a decent bet someone from Everett to PDX sees another shot at lowland snow although it may be brief.

[Gradient Keeper]

00z ECMWF 10 Day Rainfall, Snowfall totals

[Kolk1604]

That high though... 

[Cascadia_Wx]

41/29 day here, chilly and sunny. Low clouds have moved in now with a temp of 35. Still have a few crusty patches of snow around from yesterday. WINTER.

[Kolk1604]

I feel like it was this trough or whatever that dove down from the north. It wasn't there in the 12z run 

[Nov1985]

7 minutes ago, Gradient Keeper said:

Pretty good run. A lot of potential. Focusing on Day 4 to 6 at this point. Seems like a decent bet someone from Everett to PDX sees another shot at lowland snow although it may be brief.

Just needs a little nip here, a tuck there, and it turns into a decent snow event with a couples days notice.

[DeepFriedEgg]

Man the cold air is right there. Can't get it down with this weak ridge and bad through placement....

[NWbyNW]

14 minutes ago, Gradient Keeper said:

Seems like a decent bet someone from Everett to PDX sees another shot at lowland snow although it may be brief.

Really narrowing it down there aren't ya?   

[Gradient Keeper]

16 minutes ago, NWbyNW said:

Really narrowing it down there aren't ya?   

Seattle to Gresham

[Gradient Keeper]

C'mon EPS!!!!

[Deweydog]

39 minutes ago, Poulsbo Snowman said:

Looks like the Day After Tomorrow.

[Terreboner]

Never underestimate Hollywood's ability to spend millions of dollars and not use any of it on real weather research or knowledge.

[SnowWillarrive]

6 minutes ago, Gradient Keeper said:

Seattle to Gresham

Don’t tell Mossman 

[Deweydog]

13 years ago right now dew points were dropping quite rapidly!

[Snownerd3000]

8 minutes ago, Gradient Keeper said:

Seattle to Gresham

Anchorage to Whales **. Imagine the weather weenying from the least coasters from the entire western seaboard of NA is coated in snow 

[Kolk1604]

00z EPS Mean and Control through Day 10 

[Terreboner]

2 minutes ago, Kolk1604 said:

00z EPS Mean and Control through Day 10 

Hr 132 is quite the bulge.  Reminds me of looking down at myself in 1995.

[TT-SEA]

Total snow per 00Z ECMWF.   Matt will probably point out another Cannon Beach special.  

[TT-SEA]

00Z EPS...

[TT-SEA]

2 hours ago, snow_wizard said:

If the GFS and 12z ECMWF are correct the first half of December will be really cold.

Almost a given at this point.    SEA is currently running -8 for a 1/3rd of that period and there is nothing even close to warmer than normal in sight.   Without any significant warm. wet SW flow it seems likely that the entire month will end up cold.

[TT-SEA]

RIP Kirstie Alley.  

[Gradient Keeper]

47 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

Almost a given at this point.    SEA is currently running -8 for a 1/3rd of that period and there is nothing even close to warmer than normal in sight.   Without any significant warm. wet SW flow it seems likely that the entire month will end up cold.

Yeah EPS surface temps after Day 6 shows the Gorge and Columbia Basin(WA) never reaches freezing progressively turning colder through the end of the run. A definite prolonged cold pool signature which likely means a multi-day east wind episode for the Gorge/PDX metro.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Mid month inversions looking likely. 

[Gradient Keeper]

Sorry been asleep. Just noticed PDX nice snow storm 6-10" metro area. Surface temps Day 7 to 9 26-31 F gusty to strong east wind.

 

 

[TT-SEA]

There has been precip on the radar over my area most of the night and the current 925mb temp is -1C and there is no south wind... and yet there is only light rain falling and my snow cover went down a little more overnight.    Current temp is 33.    I was sure there would be at least some snow falling when I turned on the outside light.

ECMWF shows the south wind picking up this afternoon then light wind tomorrow and a stronger south wind on Thursday.  The south wind is definitely a snow killer here.    Its pretty rare to have accumulating snow with a south wind here even with a 925mb temp well below freezing.    It is also unfortunately effective at melting existing snow cover.  

[TT-SEA]

06Z ECMWF shows a high of 43 at SEA every day through Friday.    Pretty consistent.   

I am trying to find a way the 00Z GFS could be right with the snow event it showed for Friday but its a big stretch this time.    

[FroYoBro]

1 hour ago, TT-SEA said:

06Z ECMWF shows a high of 43 at SEA every day through Friday.    Pretty consistent.   

I am trying to find a way the 00Z GFS could be right with the snow event it showed for Friday but its a big stretch this time.    

So you’re trying to tell me that Seattle isn’t going to get a major snowstorm for every cool maritime trough this winter? 
 

BS!!!!!

[TT-SEA]

1 minute ago, FroYoBro said:

So you’re trying to tell me that Seattle isn’t going to get a major snowstorm for every cool maritime trough this winter? 
 

BS!!!!!

Bur there has been lowland snow with every one of them... guessing there are several more events ahead in the next 10 days.

[Meatyorologist]

LMAO Michael Snyder used his connections with KSEA ATC and NWS Seattle to ret-con the Trace of snow on the 4th into 0.1" of measurable snow. Officially. On the NWS Climate Data web page. I am not kidding, you can check.

This means KSEA now has 6 straight days of measurable snow with this wintry pattern instead of just 5, and another 0.1" on the season.

Dude made a couple of phone calls and weenied his way into literally adding more snow. That doesn't happen. Even when justified like in this case. Absolutely ABSURD. I have never, ever seen anything remotely like it. Absolute legend.

[Meatyorologist]

I'm sorry, it's just... I can't believe this has hardly really made the rounds here. Do y'all realize the implications of this??! He can just add snow at his own whim. I can't stop snickering right now.

A god. Truly, a god. He's playing #wawx in creative mode with noclip enabled

[Snownerd3000]

2 minutes ago, Meatyorologist said:

LMAO Michael Snyder used his connections with KSEA ATC and NWS Seattle to ret-con the Trace of snow on the 4th into 0.1" of measurable snow. Officially. On the NWS Climate Data web page. I am not kidding, you can check.

This means KSEA now has 6 straight days of measurable snow with this wintry pattern instead of just 5, and another 0.1" on the season.

Dude made a couple of phone calls and weenied his way into literally adding more snow. That doesn't happen. Even when justified like in this case. Absolutely ABSURD. I have never, ever seen anything remotely like it. Absolute legend.

If the observer didn't **** it up, he wouldn't have to. And from the sound of it, they should have added more to the snowfall total too. Glad they corrected the record. 

[Meatyorologist]

Jim would be so fucking proud

[Meatyorologist]

3 minutes ago, Snownerd3000 said:

If the observer didn't **** it up, he wouldn't have to. And from the sound of it, they should have added more to the snowfall total too. Glad they corrected the record. 

No, I get it. I'm still salty that 12/27/2021 has a high of 27F. A 4F outlier from literally every station within 50 miles, probably because of some stupid airplane exhaust. It sabotaged the coldest high temperature reading since Dec 1990. A travesty.

It's just that Michael has the power to change the weather to what he pleases, I suppose. And I am all for it, power to him. I back it 100%. He's right, it definitley, obviously measurably snowed on the 4th of this month. No arguments there.

[Blizzard777]

7 hours ago, SnowWillarrive said:

Don’t tell Mossman 

Remember…..he’s among us now 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

9 minutes ago, Meatyorologist said:

No, I get it. I'm still salty that 12/27/2021 has a high of 27F. A 4F outlier from literally every station within 50 miles, probably because of some stupid airplane exhaust. It sabotaged the coldest high temperature reading since Dec 1990. A travesty.

It's just that Michael has the power to change the weather to what he pleases, I suppose. And I am all for it, power to him. I back it 100%. He's right, it definitley, obviously measurably snowed on the 4th of this month. No arguments there.

Good job Mr. Snyder.

Edited December 6, 2022 by SilverFallsAndrew