MR.SNOWMIZER Posted December 6, 2022 Report Share Posted December 6, 2022 9 minutes ago, MR.SNOWMIZER said: I try and discipline myself and not look at models past about 120 hrs. I was getting wound up like a coil!! What finally opened my eyes was i would pick a pretty map that showed snow at 200 hrs and go back 8 model runs for the same period and it was shocking at how much every run changed. Looking at any detail past 96 hrs is silly. 6 We come from the land of the ice and snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rubus Leucodermis Posted December 6, 2022 Report Share Posted December 6, 2022 1 minute ago, MR.SNOWMIZER said: What finally opened my eyes was i would pick a pretty map that showed snow at 200 hrs and go back 8 model runs for the same period and it was shocking at how much every run changed. Looking at any detail past 96 hrs is silly. As Michael Snyder says about clown range model guidance: “For amusement purposes only.” 4 It's called clown range for a reason. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted December 6, 2022 Report Share Posted December 6, 2022 View from North Bend this morning... at 440 feet in elevation on the valley floor. Snow is hanging on but not looking very pretty now. Sprinkles and 36 currently. 5 **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ShawniganLake Posted December 6, 2022 Report Share Posted December 6, 2022 55 minutes ago, MR.SNOWMIZER said: Man its been a long time since we had a low take the classic track for heavy Puget sound snow like this. Wish it was a little colder airmass. Still going to be marginal for some 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RentonHill Posted December 6, 2022 Report Share Posted December 6, 2022 Just now, TT-SEA said: View from North Bend this morning... at 440 feet in elevation. Snow is hanging on but not looking very pretty now. Sprinkles and 36 currently. Every time i stop at that McDonalds i ask if you are working but they say you are sick or cant come to the window! I miss when you worked the drive-thru. 2 1 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted December 6, 2022 Report Share Posted December 6, 2022 Also some blue sky... 3 **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted December 6, 2022 Report Share Posted December 6, 2022 4 minutes ago, RentonHillTC said: Every time i stop at that McDonalds i ask if you are working but they say you are sick or cant come to the window! I miss when you worked the drive-thru. That McDonalds has never been the same since COVID. Indoor area is closed half the time. 1 1 1 1 **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ShawniganLake Posted December 6, 2022 Report Share Posted December 6, 2022 Didn’t have a chance to measure the snow since I got home on Sunday night. There is 7-9” around the yard here this morning. 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MR.SNOWMIZER Posted December 6, 2022 Report Share Posted December 6, 2022 10 minutes ago, ShawniganLake said: Wish it was a little colder airmass. Still going to be marginal for some I know, something like this riding into a arctic air mass would be incredible. 5 We come from the land of the ice and snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
smerfylicious Posted December 6, 2022 Report Share Posted December 6, 2022 6 minutes ago, TT-SEA said: That McDonalds has never been the same since COVID. Indoor area is closed half the time. Is Twedes any better since it got new management? That place was the epitome of disappointment last time I was there a few years ago. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted December 6, 2022 Report Share Posted December 6, 2022 1 minute ago, smerfylicious said: Is Twedes any better since it got new management? That place was the epitome of disappointment last time I was there a few years ago. Not sure... haven't been there in years. 1 **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Skagit Weather Posted December 6, 2022 Report Share Posted December 6, 2022 14 minutes ago, MR.SNOWMIZER said: What finally opened my eyes was i would pick a pretty map that showed snow at 200 hrs and go back 8 model runs for the same period and it was shocking at how much every run changed. Looking at any detail past 96 hrs is silly. Yeah, when each model run comes out I do a quick 1-2 minute scan of the medium to long range. Basically I look at total precip/snow over the period just to get an idea of the potential or upcoming pattern changes. Other than that I really only look at specifics within the next 2-3 days. 2 Home Wx Station Stats (Since January 2008): Max Temp: 96.3F (2009) Min Temp: 2.0F (2008) Max Wind Gust: 45 mph (2018, 2021) Wettest Day: 2.34 (11/4/22) Avg Yearly Precip: 37" 10yr Avg Snow: 8.0" Snowfall Totals '08-09: 30" | '09-10: 0.5" | '10-11: 21" | '11-12: 9.5" | '12-13: 0.2" | '13-14: 6.2" | '14-15: 0.0" | '15-16: 0.25"| '16-17: 8.0" | '17-18: 0.9"| '18-19: 11.5" | '19-20: 11" | '20-21: 10.5" | '21-22: 21.75" | '22-23: 10.0" 2023-24: 7.0" (1/17: 3", 1/18: 1.5", 2/26: 0.5", 3/4: 2.0", Flakes: 1/11, 1/16) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
smerfylicious Posted December 6, 2022 Report Share Posted December 6, 2022 2 minutes ago, TT-SEA said: Not sure... haven't been there in years. All they have to do to be successful is have great coffee and really good pie. How is that hard? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MossMan Posted December 6, 2022 Report Share Posted December 6, 2022 1 minute ago, smerfylicious said: All they have to do to be successful is have great coffee and really good pie. How is that hard? 1 Elevation 580’ Location a few miles east of I-5 on the Snohomish Co side of the Snohomish/Skagit border. I love snow/cold AND sun/warmth! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnarkyGoblin Posted December 6, 2022 Report Share Posted December 6, 2022 20 minutes ago, MR.SNOWMIZER said: What finally opened my eyes was i would pick a pretty map that showed snow at 200 hrs and go back 8 model runs for the same period and it was shocking at how much every run changed. Looking at any detail past 96 hrs is silly. Smartest thing said on here. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted December 6, 2022 Report Share Posted December 6, 2022 12z ECMWF Day 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MossMan Posted December 6, 2022 Report Share Posted December 6, 2022 11 minutes ago, SnarkyGoblin said: Smartest thing said on here. I like those pretty maps even if they are massively inaccurate…Still exciting to see! 3 Elevation 580’ Location a few miles east of I-5 on the Snohomish Co side of the Snohomish/Skagit border. I love snow/cold AND sun/warmth! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted December 6, 2022 Report Share Posted December 6, 2022 Day 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Slushy Inch Posted December 6, 2022 Report Share Posted December 6, 2022 1 minute ago, Gradient Keeper said: Day 2 Trough farther east than GFS, could help. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ShawniganLake Posted December 6, 2022 Report Share Posted December 6, 2022 It’s been very cold up in central BC. Was just checking the Clinton station, which is the closest one to our Cabin at Watch Lake. So far in December they are running 6F/-18F. With an extreme min of -32F 4 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted December 6, 2022 Report Share Posted December 6, 2022 Day 3 hmmm.... 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MR.SNOWMIZER Posted December 6, 2022 Report Share Posted December 6, 2022 3 minutes ago, Gradient Keeper said: Day 3 hmmm.... 162w 1 We come from the land of the ice and snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ShawniganLake Posted December 6, 2022 Report Share Posted December 6, 2022 4 minutes ago, Gradient Keeper said: Day 3 hmmm.... Low pressure development is suppressed to the south. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted December 6, 2022 Report Share Posted December 6, 2022 Day 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RentonHill Posted December 6, 2022 Report Share Posted December 6, 2022 I see blue skies over Tim 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted December 6, 2022 Report Share Posted December 6, 2022 Trough too far west. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Slushy Inch Posted December 6, 2022 Report Share Posted December 6, 2022 Could deliver a hefty windstorm... Models are all over the place. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted December 6, 2022 Report Share Posted December 6, 2022 No cold air with trough #1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deweydog Posted December 6, 2022 Report Share Posted December 6, 2022 16 minutes ago, ShawniganLake said: It’s been very cold up in central BC. Was just checking the Clinton station, which is the closest one to our Cabin at Watch Lake. So far in December they are running 6F/-18F. With an extreme min of -32F 21/8 average at Omak so far this month. Incredible 30 stretch up there. 3 1 My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Slushy Inch Posted December 6, 2022 Report Share Posted December 6, 2022 Just now, Gradient Keeper said: No cold air with trough #1 The difference in 850mb temps is astound at 90 hrs between GFS and EURO. GFS op has been persistent with Seattle snow for some reason. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted December 6, 2022 Report Share Posted December 6, 2022 Day 5 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted December 6, 2022 Report Share Posted December 6, 2022 12Z ECMWF shows that system on Saturday coming in south... but the 925 temps are way too warm. 2 1 **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Slushy Inch Posted December 6, 2022 Report Share Posted December 6, 2022 2 minutes ago, Gradient Keeper said: No cold air with trough #1 Looks like the GEM so far, so maybe another shot? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Slushy Inch Posted December 6, 2022 Report Share Posted December 6, 2022 Just now, TT-SEA said: 12Z ECMWF shows that system on Saturday coming in south... but the 925 temps are way too warm. This is not my idea of south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rubus Leucodermis Posted December 6, 2022 Report Share Posted December 6, 2022 2 minutes ago, TT-SEA said: 12Z ECMWF shows that system on Saturday coming in south... but the 925 temps are way too warm. Indeed. Snow is implausible with a surface temperature of 3°C. At the 925 mbar level? Forget it! 1 It's called clown range for a reason. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted December 6, 2022 Report Share Posted December 6, 2022 3 minutes ago, 12345WeatherNerd said: This is not my idea of south. Yeah... that is the problem and why its so warm on Saturday. ECMWF shows an initial system coming in south on Friday and then that low dissolves in favor of a northern system by Saturday morning. 2 1 **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Slushy Inch Posted December 6, 2022 Report Share Posted December 6, 2022 If GFS nails this Saturday's system, it would be quite the shocker. I really doubt it. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted December 6, 2022 Report Share Posted December 6, 2022 Day 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Slushy Inch Posted December 6, 2022 Report Share Posted December 6, 2022 2 minutes ago, TT-SEA said: Yeah... that is the problem and why its so warm on Saturday. ECMWF shows an initial system coming in south on Friday and then that low dissolves in favor of a northern system. A complex setup, I can see why models are struggling. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted December 6, 2022 Report Share Posted December 6, 2022 Low snow levels down south on Sunday. Luckily... the NFL might not need their contingency plan to move the Seahawks game due to Seattle being buried in snow. 2 1 1 **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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