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PNW December 2022, winter might be coming; but mostly canceled.


The Blob

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9 minutes ago, MR.SNOWMIZER said:

I try and discipline myself and not look at models past about 120 hrs.  I was getting wound up like a coil!!

What finally opened my eyes was i would pick a pretty map that showed snow at 200 hrs and go back 8 model runs for the same period and it was shocking at how much every run changed. Looking at any detail past 96 hrs is silly.

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We come from the land of the ice and snow.

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1 minute ago, MR.SNOWMIZER said:

What finally opened my eyes was i would pick a pretty map that showed snow at 200 hrs and go back 8 model runs for the same period and it was shocking at how much every run changed. Looking at any detail past 96 hrs is silly.

As Michael Snyder says about clown range model guidance: “For amusement purposes only.”

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It's called clown range for a reason.

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View from North Bend this morning... at 440 feet in elevation on the valley floor. Snow is hanging on but not looking very pretty now.  Sprinkles and 36 currently.

20221206_092216.jpg

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**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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Just now, TT-SEA said:

View from North Bend this morning... at 440 feet in elevation.    Snow is hanging on but not looking very pretty now.  Sprinkles and 36 currently.

20221206_092216.jpg

Every time i stop at that McDonalds i ask if you are working but they say you are sick or cant come to the window! I miss when you worked the drive-thru. 

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4 minutes ago, RentonHillTC said:

Every time i stop at that McDonalds i ask if you are working but they say you are sick or cant come to the window! I miss when you worked the drive-thru. 

That McDonalds has never been the same since COVID.   Indoor area is closed half the time.

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**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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1 minute ago, smerfylicious said:

Is Twedes any better since it got new management? That place was the epitome of disappointment last time I was there a few years ago.

Not sure... haven't been there in years.

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**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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14 minutes ago, MR.SNOWMIZER said:

What finally opened my eyes was i would pick a pretty map that showed snow at 200 hrs and go back 8 model runs for the same period and it was shocking at how much every run changed. Looking at any detail past 96 hrs is silly.

Yeah, when each model run comes out I do a quick 1-2 minute scan of the medium to long range. Basically I look at total precip/snow over the period just to get an idea of the potential or upcoming pattern changes. Other than that I really only look at specifics within the next 2-3 days.

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Home Wx Station Stats (Since January 2008):

Max Temp: 96.3F (2009)   Min Temp: 2.0F (2008)   Max Wind Gust: 45 mph (2018, 2021)   Wettest Day: 2.34 (11/4/22)   Avg Yearly Precip: 37"   10yr Avg Snow: 8.0"

Snowfall Totals

'08-09: 30" | '09-10: 0.5" | '10-11: 21" | '11-12: 9.5" | '12-13: 0.2" | '13-14: 6.2" | '14-15: 0.0" | '15-16: 0.25"| '16-17: 8.0" | '17-18: 0.9"| '18-19: 11.5" | '19-20: 11" | '20-21: 10.5" | '21-22: 21.75" | '22-23: 10.0" 

2023-24: 7.0" (1/17: 3", 1/18: 1.5", 2/26: 0.5", 3/4: 2.0", Flakes: 1/11, 1/16)

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1 minute ago, smerfylicious said:

All they have to do to be successful is have great coffee and really good pie. 

How is that hard?

Will Ferrell Eww GIF by filmeditor

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Elevation 580’ Location a few miles east of I-5 on the Snohomish Co side of the Snohomish/Skagit border. I love snow/cold AND sun/warmth! 

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20 minutes ago, MR.SNOWMIZER said:

What finally opened my eyes was i would pick a pretty map that showed snow at 200 hrs and go back 8 model runs for the same period and it was shocking at how much every run changed. Looking at any detail past 96 hrs is silly.

Smartest thing said on here. :)

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11 minutes ago, SnarkyGoblin said:

Smartest thing said on here. :)

I like those pretty maps even if they are massively inaccurate…Still exciting to see! 

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Elevation 580’ Location a few miles east of I-5 on the Snohomish Co side of the Snohomish/Skagit border. I love snow/cold AND sun/warmth! 

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16 minutes ago, ShawniganLake said:

It’s been very cold up in central BC. Was just checking the Clinton station, which is the closest one to our Cabin at Watch Lake.  So far in December they are running 6F/-18F. With an extreme min of -32F

21/8 average at Omak so far this month. Incredible 30 stretch up there.

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My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad.

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3 minutes ago, 12345WeatherNerd said:

This is not my idea of south.1670695200-gNniiL6GFNw.png

Yeah... that is the problem and why its so warm on Saturday.    ECMWF shows an initial system coming in south on Friday and then that low dissolves in favor of a northern system by Saturday morning.    

 

ecmwf-deterministic-nw-mslp-0608800.png

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**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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2 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

Yeah... that is the problem and why its so warm on Saturday.    ECMWF shows an initial system coming in south on Friday and then that low dissolves in favor of a northern system.    

 

ecmwf-deterministic-nw-mslp-0608800.png

A complex setup, I can see why models are struggling.

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Low snow levels down south on Sunday.    Luckily... the NFL might not need their contingency plan to move the Seahawks game due to Seattle being buried in snow.  

ecmwf-deterministic-washington-snow_24hr_kuchera-0824800.png

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**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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