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PNW December 2022, winter might be coming; but mostly canceled.


The Blob

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27 minutes ago, MR.SNOWMIZER said:

It just looks to warm! 

925 temps on the 18Z GFS don't look too warm on Saturday.    But there is massive disagreement from the ECMWF at the same time.  

 

gfs-deterministic-washington-t925-0706000.png

ecmwf-deterministic-washington-t925-0706000.png

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**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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Omg Brian in Leavenworth. 

2DF85C03-05B2-4E22-899B-A237A616459A.png

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Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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4 minutes ago, SnowySeeker50 said:

Not much remains. Snowman still standing but dirty from leaves, little one fell over this morning

20221206_145555.jpg

I never seen so many leaves on top of snow cover here.    Really messed up fall this year.

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**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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40 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

925 temps on the 18Z GFS don't look too warm on Saturday.    But there is massive disagreement from the ECMWF at the same time.  

 

gfs-deterministic-washington-t925-0706000.png

ecmwf-deterministic-washington-t925-0706000.png

GO GFS!! You can do it!!! (For once) 

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Elevation 580’ Location a few miles east of I-5 on the Snohomish Co side of the Snohomish/Skagit border. I love snow/cold AND sun/warmth! 

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6 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

I never seen so many leaves on top of snow cover here.    Really messed up fall this year.

My parents hours in SH still had trees with almost all of its leaves still before this snow (only a couple trees tho). Weird fall/winter 

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6 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

I never seen so many leaves on top of snow cover here.    Really messed up fall this year.

My giant maple tree didn't even turn color the green leaves just got blown off a few weeks ago. Normally they are gold and on the ground by November.

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We come from the land of the ice and snow.

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35 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Omg Brian in Leavenworth. 

2DF85C03-05B2-4E22-899B-A237A616459A.png

Ive seen that before where an AR meets our cold air.  We get very heavy snow, often wet snow, and then turns to rain.   Dec. 2019 was an example.  But the 3-4 foot snowfall we had in January never warmed up since the low was to the South of us.  Heavy precip, cold temps and E/NE upslope winds as a response to the low enhanced precip rates.  

We will have a few inches Thursday and more again over the weekend.  And then maybe this next week. 

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Overall I prefer where the eps is going as opposed to the GFS continuation of coolish purgatory. 

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Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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16 minutes ago, Brian_in_Leavenworth said:

Seattle NWS not ruling out the possibility of snow for Western WA.

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...A cold upper trough will
move through the area Friday night and Saturday with a frontal
wave bringing an enhanced period of precipitation. Snow levels
will be low and heavier precipitation rates could drive them down
to near sea level. Low level flow will also turn northerly with
some Fraser River leakage. In other words, it looks like lowland
snow is possible again. Generally speaking, ensembles show up to
an inch or two for most areas as the most likely scenario but
there is a good amount of uncertainty with a few members showing
several inches. The best chances for heavy accumulations are over
the Kitsap peninsula and Hood Canal area. The period of main
concern is later Friday night and Saturday morning

Wow! NWS is trying to be prepared this time……… 

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There has been a persistent band of light rain and drizzle from Olympia out here since Sunday evening.     And its showing no sign of breaking up yet.  

 

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**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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1 minute ago, RentonHillTC said:

we literally saw blue sky over you earlier today. why do you lie so much??

It was a strange day... its been sprinkling or raining even with patches of blue sky visible.

The ECMWF shows the same band going into tomorrow morning before breaking up.   

ecmwf-deterministic-washington-precip_6hr_inch-0418000.png

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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7 minutes ago, Olive1010 said:

Bro this is unfair

What is unfair, the phantom snow?  The forecast is anything but settled and Seattle could easily end up with nothing but rain.  Lynnwood/Everett will probably score though, direct your ire in that direction.

 

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Just now, Gummy said:

What is unfair, the phantom snow?  The forecast is anything but settled and Seattle could easily end up with nothing but rain.  Lynnwood/Everett will probably score though, direct your ire in that direction.

 

Lynnwood is always a good place to direct thy ire. When was the last time something good happened in Lynnwood? 

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GFS has a good ole classic path windstorm riding up the coast past hour 300. I think it is interesting that we've had a relative lack of strong lows sweeping up the coast-- last one I can recall to really be impactful was April 2017. 

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"Let's mosey!"

 

--Cloud Strife

 

------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 

Top 5 Snow Events (post 2014):

 

(1. January 10th, 2017: 18.5 in.

(2. February 6th, 2014: 7.5 inches

(3. February 20th, 2018: 5.0 inches

(4. February 21st, 2018: 4.0 inches

(5. December 14th, 2016: 3.5 inches

 

Honourable Mentions: December 7th, 2018, February 9th, 2019.

 

Total since joining the Weather Forums: 3"

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Just now, RentonHillTC said:

can someone remind me what its called when the blue moves right to left? 

gfs-ensemble-all-avg-namer-z500_anom-1670349600-1671278400-1671408000-10.gif

Retrogrinchion 

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"Let's mosey!"

 

--Cloud Strife

 

------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 

Top 5 Snow Events (post 2014):

 

(1. January 10th, 2017: 18.5 in.

(2. February 6th, 2014: 7.5 inches

(3. February 20th, 2018: 5.0 inches

(4. February 21st, 2018: 4.0 inches

(5. December 14th, 2016: 3.5 inches

 

Honourable Mentions: December 7th, 2018, February 9th, 2019.

 

Total since joining the Weather Forums: 3"

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