PNW December 2022, winter might be coming; but mostly canceled.

[Snownerd3000]

18 minutes ago, RentonHillTC said:

dawg alert

[Snownerd3000]

21 minutes ago, RentonHillTC said:

dawg alert

Interesting seeing member 9 and 30 for Seattle are very similar.

[RentonHill]

8 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

Well crap... the 18Z ECMWF should have started by now but has not.   We might be left to guess for awhile longer!  

Running on pivotal

[RentonHill]

3 minutes ago, Snownerd3000 said:

Interesting seeing member 9 and 30 for Seattle are very similar.

They rotate/randomize the numbers from run to run so could be same perturbed member under a different labke

[Jbolin]

33 minutes ago, Requiem said:

GFS has a good ole classic path windstorm riding up the coast past hour 300. I think it is interesting that we've had a relative lack of strong lows sweeping up the coast-- last one I can recall to really be impactful was April 2017. 

Windstorm or wind "event"?

Because last month had over 220K w/o power for almost a week in certain area/s.

 

[Doinko]

5 minutes ago, JSnowlin said:

Windstorm or wind "event"?

Because last month had over 220K w/o power for almost a week in certain area/s.

 

That wasn't a classic path type event I thought, wasn't it a westerly surge through the Strait? 

[MossMan]

Just now, Doinko said:

That wasn't a classic path type event I thought, wasn't it a westerly surge through the Strait? 

Yes! And it was a doozy! 

[Poulsbo Snowman]

I just read the last 8 pages or so while I awaited the Euro only to find out it hasn't run yet.  

[Cold Snap]

Currently 38 with some sprinkles. Snow did some melting today. Wouldn’t be surprised if it is gone by the end of the week. Here’s a pic taken about half an hour ago.

[Brian_in_Leavenworth]

[Cloud]

1 hour ago, TT-SEA said:

18Z ECMWF coming out soon and it will go out to Saturday morning... will have this all figured out shortly.  

Place your bets now!

[Weiner Warrior]

All in for GFS snow 

[joelgombiner]

In short... models are struggling with the jet right now. 

Watch how the GFS handles the interaction between jet streak over north Alaska and the polar vortex lobe over NE Canada... Anything could happen and the cold is close! 

 

[Front Ranger]

This appears to be CA's winter. They were due.

Congrats, Tahoe dude.

[Requiem]

33 minutes ago, JSnowlin said:

Windstorm or wind "event"?

Because last month had over 220K w/o power for almost a week in certain area/s.

 

Been plenty of windstorms and events-- just none taking that classic path just offshore a la 1995 or 1981.

[Jbolin]

1 minute ago, Requiem said:

Been plenty of windstorms and events-- just none taking that classic path just offshore a la 1995 or 1981.

True, but that's why I asked you for clarification. B/c we all know it doesn't actually take a mid/lat cyclone to f*** s*** up around here.

[RentonHill]

12 minutes ago, joelgombiner said:

In short... models are struggling with the jet right now. 

Watch how the GFS handles the interaction between jet streak over north Alaska and the polar vortex lobe over NE Canada... Anything could happen and the cold is close! 

Thanks Joel you are a solid contributor here

[Gradient Keeper]

18z GEFS sends the Gorge into the freezer in just 3 1/2 days.

[joelgombiner]

11 minutes ago, RentonHillTC said:

Thanks Joel you are a solid contributor here

Thanks! Kind of messed up that post with the wrong timeframe haha but the point still stands that the highly amplified jet is hard to model. Changed it to the period of interest. 

[Slushy Inch]

1 hour ago, RentonHillTC said:

can someone remind me what its called when the blue moves right to left? 

Retrograde, EPS has it too.

[MWG]

We were supposed to go to Eugene for the weekend but even the freeway was a mess and we ended up canceling. 

[Deweydog]

Is it retrogression season already??? I just put up my Crimbus bush for crying out loud.

[joelgombiner]

Widespread -10's to -20's in southern Alberta & Saskatchewan tonighttonight 

[Slushy Inch]

NAM vs EURO. 

[RentonHill]

6 minutes ago, Deweydog said:

Is it retrogression season already??? I just put up my Crimbus bush for crying out loud.

I think you mean Plumbus

[NWbyNW]

1 minute ago, RentonHillTC said:

I think you mean Plumbus

[gif]

This is utterly terrifying, lol! 

[bishbish777]

Feels like the north trend is inevitable here..haha. Can't remember the last time the Euro trended towards the GFS on a low diving south.

[RentonHill]

21 minutes ago, Deweydog said:

Is it retrogression season already??? I just put up my Crimbus bush for crying out loud.

actually thinking about starting a 2019 chant pretty soon. You in? worked out well last january....not

[SouthHillFrosty]

Euro is running!

[RentonHill]

[TT-SEA]

18Z ECMWF is not even in the ballpark with 925mb temps on Saturday morning... but it all comes to placement of the low.  

 

[MossMan]

10 minutes ago, RentonHillTC said:

Still the 3rd shade of grey! 

[SnowWillarrive]

5 minutes ago, MossMan said:

Still the 3rd shade of grey! 

I’m in the second shade .4 baby !!

[MossMan]

Currently 37.2

Snow is still hanging on. Day 8. 

[OysterPrintout]

One thing very cool about the last upgrades to the GFS is how it won't bend the knee to the euro on precip and snowfall maps until roughly 8 hours before the event. Keeps the hope alive.

[MossMan]

KOMO follows the GFS and not the EURO apparently. 

[HuskyMaestro]

Does Hood Canal/Kitsap do well in snow events like along the King-Snohomish county line or North Bend? Probably could be a place I could look into if/when I move. 

[ShawniganLake]

34 degree rain here tonight.

[Gradient Keeper]

Big runs tonight!, followed by bigger runs tomorrow!, followed by the biggest runs the next day!, to then be followed by bigly runs two days later!, but not to be overshadowed by the then the bigliest runs a day after the next after after that day! C'MON!!!!

[Deweydog]

28 minutes ago, MossMan said:

KOMO follows the GFS and not the EURO apparently. 

Let’s see that video!