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PNW December 2022, winter might be coming; but mostly canceled.


The Blob

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3 minutes ago, Gradient Keeper said:

Big runs tonight!, followed by bigger runs tomorrow!, followed by biggest runs the next day!, to then be followed by bigly runs two days later!, but not to be overshadowed by the then the bigliest runs a day after the next after after that day! C'MON!!!!

Think they make Imodium for this. You may want to consult a dietician about all the runs you've been having and looking forward to 

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51 minutes ago, HuskyMaestro said:

Does Hood Canal/Kitsap do well in snow events like along the King-Snohomish county line or North Bend? Probably could be a place I could look into if/when I move. 

When there is offshore flow or overrunning situation, good place to be.

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A forum for the end of the world.

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50 minutes ago, HuskyMaestro said:

Does Hood Canal/Kitsap do well in snow events like along the King-Snohomish county line or North Bend? Probably could be a place I could look into if/when I move. 

I can't speak for the whole county, but since we moved here at the end of 2018 we've had significant snow every year (I'm talking 10+ inches, sometimes up to 20+). Elevation plays a big part in it, I imagine. Down in Port Orchard or Bremerton there can be nary a flake while up here, just outside Gorst at 500', we get slammed and it sticks around for a while, if you've got a shady spot. 

It's awesome if you love snow, and I'm lucky I do. Just make sure you've got all the necessary preps (a stocked pantry, a good generator, equipped vehicles, and a stout shovel) and you'll be golden. 😉

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5 hours ago, Deweydog said:

And 50 (holy ) years ago right meow…

8BA961B5-8D72-4CC2-BABA-ABE16D1142BF.png

That is an incredible ridge. 

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Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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9 minutes ago, Terreboner said:

It always seems like the terrain bleed is huge down there.  They always overestimate your totals because a good portion is above 1000-1500'.

I think everything in the upper rogue valley is over 1000'. Medford is nearly 1400' and Ashland is around 1900' IRCC. 

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Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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Looks like its going to be a pretty mild night in the Willamette Valley stuck under the low stratus deck. 

Some spots may not drop below 40. PDX and EUG had -3 departures today, -2 at SLE. 

Here we had a 41/34 day. Skies have cleared a bit though and with a fairly cool airmass if we can keep the clearing for a few hours perhaps we can touch freezing before midnight. 

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Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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3 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

I think everything in the upper rogue valley is over 1000'. Medford is nearly 1400' and Ashland is around 1900' IRCC. 

Ya, makes sense.  The models probably view the whole area as foothills with no marine influence, nor any rain shadowing due to the higher elevation of the coast range down there.

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FWIW Matt Zaffino on KGW mentioned precip could start as snow in the Portland area Saturday morning... We didn't used to call him Snow Zaffino for nothing. 

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Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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3 minutes ago, Terreboner said:

Ya, makes sense.  The models probably view the whole area as foothills with no marine influence, nor any rain shadowing due to the higher elevation of the coast range down there.

I think shadowing is probably one of their biggest limiting factors. 

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Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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GFS coming in deeper and way further north with the low, its about 200 miles further north than the 18z on Friday afternoon. 

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Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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GFS goes full ICON and just stalls that low off the Washington Coast. Kind of a worst case scenario for all our snow chances at face value. 

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Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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1 minute ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

GFS goes full ICON and just stalls that low off the Washington Coast. Kind of a worst case scenario for all our snow chances at face value. 

True it would be. Many more model runs to go before this is locked in and it could easily shift south like the GFS did with the previous Snowy event. The best is yet to come just before Christmas.

00z ECMWF in 1 hour 41 minutes

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