PNW December 2022, winter might be coming; but mostly canceled.

[Gradient Keeper]

00z GFS 10 Day Rainfall, Snowfall totals

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Just now, Gradient Keeper said:

00z GFS 10 Day Rainfall, Snowfall totals

Pretty dry start to December. 

[Omegaraptor]

Just now, Gradient Keeper said:

00z GFS 10 Day Rainfall, Snowfall totals

Suppression.

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

3 minutes ago, Gradient Keeper said:

What is lying ahead for us is going to be amazing and quite possibly bitterly cold first low level cold pool/inversion, then a bitter regional blast. WOW

Something big is coming friend.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

6 minutes ago, Brian_in_Leavenworth said:

GEM day 10

 

Isn't this the 50 year old map Dewey posted today?

[fubario]

12 minutes ago, Brian_in_Leavenworth said:

GEM day 10

 

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W

[SilverFallsAndrew]

GFS is really trying in the long range, but not sure its going to get there. 

[Doinko]

1 minute ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

GFS is really trying in the long range, but not sure its going to get there. 

Ridge support fades it looks like

[Kolk1604]

Does the CFS ever verify? No especially that far out. I don't understand why people do this to themselves. 

That's like me showing my work a GFS snowfall map and tell them shut down for at least a week. 

 

[Slushy Inch]

Just now, Doinko said:

Ridge support fades it looks like

EPS was pretty good this morning. Lots of cold members, I just want to see that continue. Good GEFS would be nice as well.

[Gradient Keeper]

00z GEM full run

[snow_wizard]

Looks like the GFS has started to agree with the 12z ECMWF in showing a chilly / dry pattern coming up.  It was inevitable we would end up with a ridge very close and an inversion eventually.  Surface progs show a major cold pool developing east of the Cascades so it could get pretty cold.

It's beginning to appear it may be difficult to get any snow before the ridge pattern sets up though.  Obviously nothing is etched in stone, but the cold and dry pattern seems reasonable given where we've been.  Might match up with the cold dry pattern in November pretty well. LRC???

[SilverFallsAndrew]

1 minute ago, Kolk1604 said:

Does the CFS ever verify? No especially that far out. I don't understand why people do this to themselves. 

That's like me showing my work a GFS snowfall map and tell them shut down for at least a week. 

 

Yeah the CFS has been trying to torch the crap out of us for the past month... Always just a few days away. 

[snow_wizard]

2 minutes ago, Gradient Keeper said:

00z GEM full run

I'm loving the fact the extreme blocking theme continues.

[Slushy Inch]

Just now, snow_wizard said:

Looks like the GFS has started to agree with the 12z ECMWF in showing a chilly / dry pattern coming up.  It was inevitable we would end up with a ridge very close and an inversion eventually.  Surface progs show a major cold pool developing east of the Cascades so it could get pretty cold.

It's beginning to appear it may be difficult to get any snow before the ridge pattern sets up though.  Obviously nothing is etched in stone, but the cold and dry pattern seems reasonable given where we've been.  Might match up with the cold dry pattern in November pretty well. LRC???

My inclination is that GFS OP is too dry.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Interesting seeing this. Fake cold hanging on down in Oregon as closer to the arctic front, better mixing creates warmer conditions in W. Washington. 

[snow_wizard]

1 minute ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Yeah the CFS has been trying to torch the crap out of us for the past month... Always just a few days away. 

People need to remember when using the longer range CFS it's important to use a composite of many runs or it's just garbage.

[Slushy Inch]

7 minutes ago, Doinko said:

Ridge support fades it looks like

Just slightly. A trough kicks thing too far east.

[snow_wizard]

1 minute ago, 12345WeatherNerd said:

My inclination is that GFS OP is too dry.

The ECMWF was going that way on its 12z run.  I would rather have a dry and cold pattern than the crap we had today for darn sure.  Remember we had the long run of dry weather last month too.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

This run doesn't quite get there. Cold dumps mostly east (Maybe some Fraser River action up north?). CFS onto something?! jk

[snow_wizard]

3 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Interesting seeing this. Fake cold hanging on down in Oregon as closer to the arctic front, better mixing creates warmer conditions in W. Washington. 

Might be a brief time it's like that, but there's a lot cold before that.

[Slushy Inch]

1060mb! 

[snow_wizard]

3 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

This run doesn't quite get there. Cold dumps mostly east (Maybe some Fraser River action up north?). CFS onto something?! jk

It actually gets pretty cold in WA.

[snow_wizard]

2 minutes ago, 12345WeatherNerd said:

1060mb! 

Going to be a cold ride this month I'm thinking.

[SouthHillFrosty]

 

[MossMan]

Wouldn’t it be something if we set up something similar to last years 12/24-1/1 epicness! That would be lovely. Something even more prolonged would also be amazing. 

[SnowWillarrive]

1 minute ago, snow_wizard said:

Going to be a cold ride this month I'm thinking.

We need more snow on the ground to make any dry period fun. 

[Omegaraptor]

Just now, MossMan said:

Wouldn’t it be something if we set up something similar to last years 12/24-1/1 epicness! That would be lovely. Something even more prolonged would also be amazing. 

Would be nice if the Arctic air could actually reach the entire region this time.

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

1 minute ago, SouthHillFrosty said:

 

I'd love to see the area get 3-6 inches before going into a dry spell. Looks like a good chance here.

[Slushy Inch]

GEFS not nearly as dry. 

[Slushy Inch]

Actually, peeks at 1064mb!

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Down to 31 now, definitely on a good pace to eclipse 20 sub-freezing lows again this month. I haven't done an exhaustive search, but January 1949 is the only month I can find at Silver Falls where every low was sub-freezing. January 1957, January 1979, and January 1985 all had 30 days with sub-freezing lows. The 1948-49 season was unbelievable. 152 freezes at Silver Falls. First freeze was 9/25/48 last freeze was 5/30/49.  

[snow_wizard]

8 minutes ago, SnowWillarrive said:

We need more snow on the ground to make any dry period fun. 

Anything is more fun than the last couple of days.

[snow_wizard]

3 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Down to 31 now, definitely on a good pace to eclipse 20 sub-freezing lows again this month. I haven't done an exhaustive search, but January 1949 is the only month I can find at Silver Falls where every low was sub-freezing. January 1957, January 1979, and January 1985 all had 30 days with sub-freezing lows. The 1948-49 season was unbelievable. 152 freezes at Silver Falls. First freeze was 9/25/48 last freeze was 5/30/49.  

1948-49 and 1949-50 was unquestionably the greatest pair of winters ever witnessed here.  1861-62 was the king, but for a pair that's the gold standard.

I think January 1937 did 31 freezing mins here BTW.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

12 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

It actually gets pretty cold in WA.

Yeah it does, but still more of a glancing blow. The upper level pattern never quite gets there. But the GFS advects a ton of cold air in regardless...

[RentonHill]

Signature comma look!! 

[Omegaraptor]

3 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

Anything is more fun than the last couple of days.

Even 55 degree SW flow drizzle?

[SilverFallsAndrew]

1 minute ago, snow_wizard said:

1948-49 and 1949-50 was unquestionably the greatest pair of winters ever witnessed here.  1961-62 was the king, but for a pair that's the gold standard.

I think January 1937 did 31 freezing mins here BTW.

Silver Falls started keeping records in 1938, but there is a good chance they were sub-freezing every day in January 1937 too. Salem only had one low above freezing that month and it was 36, so certainly reasonable to believe it could have been sub-freezing up here. The park has no data from January 1950 unfortunately, but there were a couple brief warm ups down here that month, so my guess is they had at least one low above freezing. 

[LowerGarfield]

2 hours ago, Olive1010 said:

Idk...

Euro looked a little better for me but we'll see what happens.

[MossMan]

38/32 on the day. 
Currently 38.

.02” of drizzle and chunks. 
.45” for the month. 
48.99” for the year.