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PNW December 2022, winter might be coming; but mostly canceled.


The Blob

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Signs of block retrogression at the end of the run too.  Could be a top tier cold Dec after a top tier cold Nov.  That coming after a very top tier warm Jul - Oct.  Wowzers.

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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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3 minutes ago, Gradient Keeper said:

There it is, Dewey!

https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/short_range/tools/gifs/500hgt_comp_00gfs610.gif

I don't think that means January will be 2006 like though.

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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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5 minutes ago, Winterdog said:

37 here.  Hope we will see better runs in the future.

The surface will be cold.  Remember cold winters are usually different variations of a cold theme.

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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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2 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

The surface will be cold.  Remember cold winters are usually different variations of a cold theme.

Hoping that low just sitting offshore on this Euro run can come to the OR/CA border and deliver a snowstorm for the Willamette Valley.

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Just now, Doinko said:

Hoping that low just sitting offshore on this Euro run can come to the OR/CA border and deliver a snowstorm for the Willamette Valley.

WA/OR border would work for me. 

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Elevation 580’ Location a few miles east of I-5 on the Snohomish Co side of the Snohomish/Skagit border. I love snow/cold AND sun/warmth! 

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This just has a certain beauty to it.  Truly incredible.

1671278400-mif4boOadWM.png

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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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EPS ends with the strongest signal for the cold to be in the West.

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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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Something truly special is happening this season.

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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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Teleconnections are great on the EPS.  PNA has trended down the past few runs.  Later in the month yesterday's 0z had PNA +0.5, 12z, -0.5, tonight's 0z -1.0.  EPO is also quite low long with that.

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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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I was pretty sure yesterday that we were going to get more snow before drying out... that is looking much less likely tonight.    

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**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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The blocking has been crazy since late spring... and continues unabated.   That can mean warm or cold but tends to lead to cold in the winter due to inversions and the opposite in the warm season.    

I continue to think the unprecedented level of stratospheric water vapor is at least partially involved.  Its pretty silly to mock it and just assume this would not have any impact on weather patterns.

 

stratosphere-polar-vortex-winter-water-vapor-26mb-nasa-concentration-analysis-anomaly-2022-2023.thumb.png.196c875c71dd95bbfd3d050789c21f04.png

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**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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Even tonight there are several places in the 0 to 10 range in the Okanogan.  Amazing. 

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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36 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

The blocking has been crazy since late spring... and continues unabated.   That can mean warm or cold but tends to lead to cold in the winter due to inversions and the opposite in the warm season.    

I continue to think the unprecedented level of stratospheric water vapor is at least partially involved.  Its pretty silly to mock it and just assume this would not have any impact on weather patterns.

 

stratosphere-polar-vortex-winter-water-vapor-26mb-nasa-concentration-analysis-anomaly-2022-2023.thumb.png.196c875c71dd95bbfd3d050789c21f04.png

That is a very extreme anomaly alright.  This could end up being a huge thing for us.

Also worth noting there has been no sign of any global warming from the water vapor yet.

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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Sadly... the 00Z ECMWF shows basically no lowland snow for the entire run.   Maybe the next round will come right before Christmas.   

ecmwf-deterministic-washington-total_snow_kuchera-1235200.png

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**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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