PNW December 2022, winter might be coming; but mostly canceled.

[bishbish777]

Chills at the mouth of the Columbia for a while 

[TigerWoodsLibido]

36F and foggy. Hope everyone is having a nice winter so far.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Yeah the short term went from potentially interesting to being a huge turd, very quickly. 

[TigerWoodsLibido]

59 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Yeah the short term went from potentially interesting to being a huge turd, very quickly. 

Overnight GFS = L

 

[Everleigh]

4 hours ago, bishbish777 said:

Chills at the mouth of the Columbia for a while 

Shows rain for me. Throw it out! lol 

35.2* this morning, which is the low for the day so far. Any snow that was left is now totally gone.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

7 hours ago, Gradient Keeper said:

There it is, Dewey!

Funny how people see what they want to see on these lists. Given pattern progression so far 1996 is pretty much irrelevant. Seeing 2009 twice is interesting, the 2005 analog keeps popping up and can’t be discounted. 1978 another year with a lot of real and fake cold. 

[TacomaWx]

Would’ve been nice to go back into potential lowland snow quickly after last week…but im fine with waiting a little longer. We’re still going to have atleast one more event this winter maybe even 2 if we’re lucky. 

[RentonHill]

11 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Funny how people see what they want to see on these lists. Given pattern progression so far 1996 is pretty much irrelevant. Seeing 2009 twice is interesting, the 2005 analog keeps popping up and can’t be discounted. 1978 another year with a lot of real and fake cold. 

Weird that our triple dip strong Nina has resulted in equivalent weather to a baby solo nina

[TT-SEA]

5 hours ago, bishbish777 said:

Chills at the mouth of the Columbia for a while 

Big shift north on the 12Z NAM for Saturday... @ShawniganLake would be buried with this set up.

 

[Anti Marine Layer]

No ridge December? Maybe. We will know by the time the ball drops in NYC.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

1 minute ago, TacomaWx said:

Would’ve been nice to go back into potential lowland snow quickly after last week…but im fine with waiting a little longer. We’re still going to have atleast one more event this winter maybe even 2 if we’re lucky. 

Back in the good old days we would revert to snow chances after the 20th, and it wouldn't necessarily ruin our chances at a decent January. In fact it would be a positive harbinger. 

 

2 minutes ago, RentonHillTC said:

Weird that our triple dip strong Nina has resulted in equivalent weather to a baby solo nina

Unless we have an absolute RAGING torch for six weeks starting around the 20th the comparisons to 2005 will end pretty quickly. My bigger takeaway from that analog map is those are mostly pretty cold patterns that were a mixture of big low level cold, or back door dry arctic fronts. If we do end up seeing arctic air in the next 2-3 weeks my guess is it would be more of a dry arctic front like 2009. 

[Rubus Leucodermis]

5 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

Big shift north on the 12Z NAM for Saturday... @ShawniganLake would be buried with this set up.

 

I’m in the blue!

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Judah had to like the 00z CFS. 

[TacomaWx]

It was a pretty solid 8 day run…but hopefully during the next round of winter weather we can manage some sub freezing highs. This event wasn’t particularly cold or in the top tier especially considering some events we’ve had in recent years…but still pretty solid. 
11/28-40/35

11/29-40/31 0.7”

11/30-41/29 1.2”

12/1-34/25 0.8”

12/2-38/24 1.2”

12/3-44/33 0.2”

12/4-39/33 1.1”

12/5-39/34

[TacomaWx]

3 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Back in the good old days we would revert to snow chances after the 20th, and it wouldn't necessarily ruin our chances at a decent January. In fact it would be a positive harbinger. 

 Yeah I’m feeling pretty good about something happening from December 20th-January 20th. Something good is coming we’ve just got to wait 2-4 weeks. Next time it won’t be so marginal if I had to guess. 

[ShawniganLake]

12 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

Big shift north on the 12Z NAM for Saturday... @ShawniganLake would be buried with this set up.

 

Yep probably about a foot. I bet it ends up even farther north at this point. 

[AlTahoe]

27 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Funny how people see what they want to see on these lists. Given pattern progression so far 1996 is pretty much irrelevant. Seeing 2009 twice is interesting, the 2005 analog keeps popping up and can’t be discounted. 1978 another year with a lot of real and fake cold. 

2009 and 1978 works for down in this region. 2005-2006 the cold air never made it this far south until March 2006 so completely opposite of this year. 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

3 minutes ago, TacomaWx said:

It was a pretty solid 8 day run…but hopefully during the next round of winter weather we can manage some sub freezing highs. This event wasn’t particularly cold or in the top tier especially considering some events we’ve had in recent years…but still pretty solid. 
11/28-40/35

11/29-40/31 0.7”

11/30-41/29 1.2”

12/1-34/25 0.8”

12/2-38/24 1.2”

12/3-44/33 0.2”

12/4-39/33 1.1”

12/5-39/34

That's a good stretch, especially all the minor snow falls. The last five weeks have seen fairly sustained cold anomalies, and it looks like more or less at the surface that will continue for the foreseeable future. Which kind of brings us to an interesting place. 

If we are sitting around December 20th looking back on two pretty dry cold weeks, at that point what are we staring down at, I think, and in some ways I hate to say this our best bet is to follow the 1984-85 or 78-79 route and hope we stay in a generally blocky/less active regime. 

There is a path to a cool and active regime, but I think if we move into an active/wet pattern there are some risks there, of this thing not turning out very favorably. From our overall winter standpoint a ridge building over/near us with some nice low level cold is probably the best case scenario, then we hope for something riding over the top and that block migrating westward like we saw in late November.

But overall, we've seen a very extended period of cool weather, but if we look at the historical record, it doesn't necessarily have to end. There is precedent for things getting even better/colder as we head into the heart of winter. But as always its a fine line. 

[TT-SEA]

Looks like the light rain/drizzle has finally ended out here as the incoming system starts to lift everything northward.   The fog and low clouds have also lifted.   It should be a pretty nice day.

[Meatyorologist]

It feels inevitable no matter what.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Due to clearing skies and being just above the low stratus deck we actually ended up hitting 26 this morning. 

[Winterdog]

39 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

Big shift north on the 12Z NAM for Saturday... @ShawniganLake would be buried with this set up.

 

We've lost the NAM. 

[TT-SEA]

23 hours ago, TT-SEA said:

Pretty clear snow line on the ridge... and down to about 6 inches on the ground.

Current pic... snow level is a little higher this morning than yesterday.    Just measured again and we have about 4.5 inches left on the ground.    

[snow maniac]

41 minutes ago, Rubus Leucodermis said:

I’m in the blue!

This looks like day of wet slushy rain here.

[Winterdog]

37 now and the low for the day.  I'm not onboard with anything.  

[MossMan]

Raining and 37.

.10” so far on the day. 
 

[Meatyorologist]

7 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

Current pic... snow level is a little higher this morning than yesterday.    Just measured again and we have about 4.5 inches left on the ground.    

Ah, you used a different measuring tool today!

[TT-SEA]

1 minute ago, Meatyorologist said:

Ah, you used a different measuring tool today!

No... same tape measure in the same spots.   

[SnowWillarrive]

4 minutes ago, MossMan said:

Raining and 37.

.10” so far on the day. 
 

You are getting the gunk we put up with all week

[Winterdog]

19 minutes ago, Meatyorologist said:

It feels inevitable no matter what.

It's coming.

[MossMan]

Sounds like a 30 car pileup just east of Ellensburg. I drove that stretch every week for work year round for about 6 years…It got downright freaky at times with the thick ice fog that happens so often over there. 

[MossMan]

2 minutes ago, Winterdog said:

It's coming.

Conflicting reports! 

[ShawniganLake]

[MWG]

Looks like we got down to 25F. Right now is 28 and freezing fog. 

[Winterdog]

The Seattle NWS hasn't given up on the possibility of snow yet:

A cool upper trough will cross the area on Friday for additional
showers across the region. Snow levels will be lower, around
1000-1500 ft, and areas near the mountains may see a rain/snow mix
with heavier showers. Snow levels will remain low Friday night as
the next Pacific frontal system arrives, setting up another
threat for lowland snow. Coolest temps and lowest snow levels will
be areas near the Olympics and Cascades, and also in the North
Interior. Most areas will likely see a rain/snow mix but there is
a 10-30 percent probability of seeing greater than 1 inch in the
interior (Seattle south) with 40-50 percent north of Seattle to
the border. 33

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...The system on Friday night
continues to impact the region on Saturday as a lows spins
offshore. A warm front will be lifting north through western WA
and we will see snow levels in the interior rising through the
day (from south to north). The slowest areas to turn over (from
snow or a rain/snow mix to rain) will be the strait, North
Interior, and Hood Canal area. This system will remain offshore
and start to shift south on Sunday, pulling moisture away from
western WA. There is still a threat for additional lowland snow as
snow levels lower once again (and temps drop to near freezing)
but overall moisture and snow amounts will be less. As we move
forward, into early next week, we`re looking dry but cool weather
with offshore flow. Lows will drop into the 20s again with highs
around 40 both Monday and Tuesday. 33

[MossMan]

6 minutes ago, ShawniganLake said:

Conflicting reports! 
And you forgot to charge your phone last night. 

[TT-SEA]

12Z GFS also buries @ShawniganLake  on Saturday.     The Hood Canal also does very well which is almost a given with this trajectory and cold air damming.  

Another northward shift and it is now much warmer at the 925mb temp level compared to the runs yesterday.     Sunday is basically dry on this run.

 

[ShawniganLake]

3 minutes ago, MossMan said:

Conflicting reports! 
And you forgot to charge your phone last night. 

I usually just charge it when I’m driving. Apple CarPlay!

[TT-SEA]

Even the warmer 12Z ICON shows snow in the Hood Canal area and on Vancouver Island...

[Winterdog]

3 minutes ago, Winterdog said:

The Seattle NWS hasn't given up on the possibility of snow yet:

A cool upper trough will cross the area on Friday for additional
showers across the region. Snow levels will be lower, around
1000-1500 ft, and areas near the mountains may see a rain/snow mix
with heavier showers. Snow levels will remain low Friday night as
the next Pacific frontal system arrives, setting up another
threat for lowland snow. Coolest temps and lowest snow levels will
be areas near the Olympics and Cascades, and also in the North
Interior. Most areas will likely see a rain/snow mix but there is
a 10-30 percent probability of seeing greater than 1 inch in the
interior (Seattle south) with 40-50 percent north of Seattle to
the border. 33

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...The system on Friday night
continues to impact the region on Saturday as a lows spins
offshore. A warm front will be lifting north through western WA
and we will see snow levels in the interior rising through the
day (from south to north). The slowest areas to turn over (from
snow or a rain/snow mix to rain) will be the strait, North
Interior, and Hood Canal area. This system will remain offshore
and start to shift south on Sunday, pulling moisture away from
western WA. There is still a threat for additional lowland snow as
snow levels lower once again (and temps drop to near freezing)
but overall moisture and snow amounts will be less. As we move
forward, into early next week, we`re looking dry but cool weather
with offshore flow. Lows will drop into the 20s again with highs
around 40 both Monday and Tuesday. 33

In light of the latest model trends this was a stupid post.  You could have at least waited until the morning AFD takes all the mention of lowland snow out of the discussion