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PNW December 2022, winter might be coming; but mostly canceled.


The Blob

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2 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

12Z GFS also buries @ShawniganLake  on Saturday.

Another northward shift and it is now much warmer at the 925mb temp level compared to the runs yesterday.     Sunday is basically dry on this run.

 

gfs-deterministic-washington-snow_24hr_kuchera-0716800 (1).png

gfs-deterministic-washington-t925-0716800.png

-2C at 925mb.  Yea that would be huge here. Makes sense. I’ll be on the mainland again. 

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Just now, Winterdog said:

In light of the latest model trends this was a stupid post.  You could have at least waited until the morning AFD takes all the mention of lowland snow out of the discussion

Yeah... they are always playing catch up.   This happens when things are trending colder/snowier and when they are trending warmer like now.   

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**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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Just now, TT-SEA said:

Yeah... they are always playing catch up.   This happens when things are trending colder/snowier and when they are trending warmer like now.   

Yeah, what a bunch of stupid rubes. They probably don't even look at the traffic cams to see if its bare and wet.

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4 minutes ago, administrator said:

Yeah, what a bunch of stupid rubes. They probably don't even look at the traffic cams to see if its bare and wet.

They do play catch up... probably because they need to be conservative.     But this time they are being aggressive with snow chances.

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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Pretty foggy on the south side of the state park. 

D75284F0-05CD-4938-95C2-1F0159615E1B.jpeg

Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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19 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

12Z GFS also buries @ShawniganLake  on Saturday.     The Hood Canal also does very well which is almost a given with this trajectory and cold air damming.  

Another northward shift and it is now much warmer at the 925mb temp level compared to the runs yesterday.     Sunday is basically dry on this run.

 

gfs-deterministic-washington-snow_24hr_kuchera-0716800 (1).png

gfs-deterministic-washington-t925-0716800.png

If flow remains offshore many possibilities are on the table for the entire area. Once again wet bulb will be in play. 

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We come from the land of the ice and snow.

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7 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

This is just odd... our alders usually start losing leaves in June.   This year they finished in December.    

20221207_082500.jpg

Tough year for photosynthesis, with a late onset to warm spring temperatures, and a dry summer and early fall. I suspect trees hung on to their leaves longer than normal in an attempt to achieve their energy quotas for the year. 

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38 minutes ago, Winterdog said:

The Seattle NWS hasn't given up on the possibility of snow yet:

A cool upper trough will cross the area on Friday for additional
showers across the region. Snow levels will be lower, around
1000-1500 ft, and areas near the mountains may see a rain/snow mix
with heavier showers. Snow levels will remain low Friday night as
the next Pacific frontal system arrives, setting up another
threat for lowland snow. Coolest temps and lowest snow levels will
be areas near the Olympics and Cascades, and also in the North
Interior. Most areas will likely see a rain/snow mix but there is
a 10-30 percent probability of seeing greater than 1 inch in the
interior (Seattle south) with 40-50 percent north of Seattle to
the border. 33

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...The system on Friday night
continues to impact the region on Saturday as a lows spins
offshore. A warm front will be lifting north through western WA
and we will see snow levels in the interior rising through the
day (from south to north). The slowest areas to turn over (from
snow or a rain/snow mix to rain) will be the strait, North
Interior, and Hood Canal area. This system will remain offshore
and start to shift south on Sunday, pulling moisture away from
western WA. There is still a threat for additional lowland snow as
snow levels lower once again (and temps drop to near freezing)
but overall moisture and snow amounts will be less.
As we move
forward, into early next week, we`re looking dry but cool weather
with offshore flow. Lows will drop into the 20s again with highs
around 40 both Monday and Tuesday. 33

They're feeling the sting from last week.

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A forum for the end of the world.

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20 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

They do play catch up... probably because they need to be conservative.     But this time they are being aggressive with snow chances.

I hope the three folks at Sandpoint who read this site around 8am everyday will see your helpful insight and change how they work. Maybe they'll just stop with the forecasting and copy and paste what you have.

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12 minutes ago, Front Ranger said:

They're feeling the sting from last week.

For sure... its really a precarious position when dealing with the public.   

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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The chances for a heavy wet snow for the Puget sound are very real.  Offshore flow,  offshore flow. Could care less what the predicted 925 is at this point because the models do terrible taking into account wet bulb in a marginal air mass. 

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We come from the land of the ice and snow.

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Looks like my snowpack won't get the refresher it needs to make it to Christmas. 

That's okay, it'll have lasted on the ground for 2 weeks by the time it's gone. 

That's a great early season haul IMO. I remember living in Redmond, Kirkland and Renton growing up every major snowstorm I scored on. Inauguration day, 1996, 2005, 2006, 2008 are all ingrained in my memory.

Since moving to Gold Bar my 2 Winters have had major scores that rival everything except for Hanukkah Eve and Bill Clinton's intro. Before last year I'd never had a winter where I scored more than 24" of snow and that got blown out of the water.

Something is definitely brewing this year and I couldn't be happier with moving to a more snow-prone area.

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Just now, MR.SNOWMIZER said:

The chances for a heavy wet snow for the Puget sound are very real.  Offshore flow,  offshore flow. Could care less what the predicted 925 is at this point because the models do terrible taking into account wet bulb in a marginal air mass. 

Good point, we have seen that over and over again.

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2 minutes ago, Mr Marine Layer said:

20221207_074739.thumb.jpg.2278f39f870cb0cc4dff58ca56f3bac1.jpgBig surprise here this morning. Have to post it somewhere other than the graveyard environment of the California thread. 

20221207_074321.thumb.jpg.74c9e4e4cfb7df4ce2575392c447ad37.jpg

That top pic is awesome.   

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**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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Snow cover still hanging on at my place despite the temperatures remaining above freezing through the night. Wet slop that turns into concrete after a hard freeze can be surprisingly persistent.

Still expect a fair amount of melting in the next few days. That’s OK, snow has now lasted over a week already. Looking forward to the side streets melting clear and being able to ride a bike without risking a wipeout again.

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It's called clown range for a reason.

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2 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

That top pic is awesome.   

I still think of you anytime i see a palm tree! Funny stuff and in fact when i was on vacation i was in a parking lot and when i saw the big palm tree i started snickering and my Fiancée asked me what was so funny and i had to tell her the whole story. 

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We come from the land of the ice and snow.

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2 hours ago, TacomaWx said:

It was a pretty solid 8 day run…but hopefully during the next round of winter weather we can manage some sub freezing highs. This event wasn’t particularly cold or in the top tier especially considering some events we’ve had in recent years…but still pretty solid. 
11/28-40/35

11/29-40/31 0.7”

11/30-41/29 1.2”

12/1-34/25 0.8”

12/2-38/24 1.2”

12/3-44/33 0.2”

12/4-39/33 1.1”

12/5-39/34

I know we need to take baby steps down here in the South Sound but next time we need to get these wimpy measurement up to par…4-8 inches per storm works for me .  I don’t want to settle…I want more!!! 🤪
or

I’ll trade everything in for one rowdy arctic front with 2-3 inches of snow with a huge dramatic overrunning event that tries to free us from the cold……but fails. 

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