ShawniganLake Posted December 7, 2022 Report Share Posted December 7, 2022 2 minutes ago, TT-SEA said: 12Z GFS also buries @ShawniganLake on Saturday. Another northward shift and it is now much warmer at the 925mb temp level compared to the runs yesterday. Sunday is basically dry on this run. -2C at 925mb. Yea that would be huge here. Makes sense. I’ll be on the mainland again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted December 7, 2022 Report Share Posted December 7, 2022 Just now, Winterdog said: In light of the latest model trends this was a stupid post. You could have at least waited until the morning AFD takes all the mention of lowland snow out of the discussion Yeah... they are always playing catch up. This happens when things are trending colder/snowier and when they are trending warmer like now. 1 **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest administrator Posted December 7, 2022 Report Share Posted December 7, 2022 Just now, TT-SEA said: Yeah... they are always playing catch up. This happens when things are trending colder/snowier and when they are trending warmer like now. Yeah, what a bunch of stupid rubes. They probably don't even look at the traffic cams to see if its bare and wet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ShawniganLake Posted December 7, 2022 Report Share Posted December 7, 2022 2 minutes ago, TT-SEA said: Even the warmer 12Z ICON shows snow in the Hood Canal area and on Vancouver Island... The ICON usually does really good on precip type up this way. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted December 7, 2022 Report Share Posted December 7, 2022 4 minutes ago, administrator said: Yeah, what a bunch of stupid rubes. They probably don't even look at the traffic cams to see if its bare and wet. They do play catch up... probably because they need to be conservative. But this time they are being aggressive with snow chances. **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted December 7, 2022 Report Share Posted December 7, 2022 Pretty foggy on the south side of the state park. Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MR.SNOWMIZER Posted December 7, 2022 Report Share Posted December 7, 2022 1 hour ago, TT-SEA said: Big shift north on the 12Z NAM for Saturday... @ShawniganLake would be buried with this set up. Not Much has changed here, still ,looks like 4-8 inches are on the table. 2 1 We come from the land of the ice and snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tyler Mode Posted December 7, 2022 Report Share Posted December 7, 2022 47 minutes ago, TT-SEA said: Current pic... snow level is a little higher this morning than yesterday. Just measured again and we have about 4.5 inches left on the ground. Always love the bright color of the maples 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MR.SNOWMIZER Posted December 7, 2022 Report Share Posted December 7, 2022 19 minutes ago, TT-SEA said: 12Z GFS also buries @ShawniganLake on Saturday. The Hood Canal also does very well which is almost a given with this trajectory and cold air damming. Another northward shift and it is now much warmer at the 925mb temp level compared to the runs yesterday. Sunday is basically dry on this run. If flow remains offshore many possibilities are on the table for the entire area. Once again wet bulb will be in play. 2 We come from the land of the ice and snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted December 7, 2022 Report Share Posted December 7, 2022 This is just odd... our alders usually start losing leaves in June. This year they finished in December. **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RentonHill Posted December 7, 2022 Report Share Posted December 7, 2022 GFS gonna do it Day 10?? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Slushy Inch Posted December 7, 2022 Report Share Posted December 7, 2022 Big increase in snow totals for Seattle! 1 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Slushy Inch Posted December 7, 2022 Report Share Posted December 7, 2022 6 minutes ago, TT-SEA said: This is just odd... our alders usually start losing leaves in June. This year they finished in December. JUNE?! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Slushy Inch Posted December 7, 2022 Report Share Posted December 7, 2022 2 minutes ago, RentonHillTC said: GFS gonna do it Day 10?? It should if it finally looks like GEFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RentonHill Posted December 7, 2022 Report Share Posted December 7, 2022 glancing blow perhaps Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Slushy Inch Posted December 7, 2022 Report Share Posted December 7, 2022 Look at all those cold members! Big potential. 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted December 7, 2022 Report Share Posted December 7, 2022 1 minute ago, 12345WeatherNerd said: JUNE?! Yes... they are a messy tree. **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
joelgombiner Posted December 7, 2022 Report Share Posted December 7, 2022 7 minutes ago, TT-SEA said: This is just odd... our alders usually start losing leaves in June. This year they finished in December. Tough year for photosynthesis, with a late onset to warm spring temperatures, and a dry summer and early fall. I suspect trees hung on to their leaves longer than normal in an attempt to achieve their energy quotas for the year. 5 Useful weather links Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Front Ranger Posted December 7, 2022 Report Share Posted December 7, 2022 38 minutes ago, Winterdog said: The Seattle NWS hasn't given up on the possibility of snow yet: A cool upper trough will cross the area on Friday for additional showers across the region. Snow levels will be lower, around 1000-1500 ft, and areas near the mountains may see a rain/snow mix with heavier showers. Snow levels will remain low Friday night as the next Pacific frontal system arrives, setting up another threat for lowland snow. Coolest temps and lowest snow levels will be areas near the Olympics and Cascades, and also in the North Interior. Most areas will likely see a rain/snow mix but there is a 10-30 percent probability of seeing greater than 1 inch in the interior (Seattle south) with 40-50 percent north of Seattle to the border. 33 .LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...The system on Friday night continues to impact the region on Saturday as a lows spins offshore. A warm front will be lifting north through western WA and we will see snow levels in the interior rising through the day (from south to north). The slowest areas to turn over (from snow or a rain/snow mix to rain) will be the strait, North Interior, and Hood Canal area. This system will remain offshore and start to shift south on Sunday, pulling moisture away from western WA. There is still a threat for additional lowland snow as snow levels lower once again (and temps drop to near freezing) but overall moisture and snow amounts will be less. As we move forward, into early next week, we`re looking dry but cool weather with offshore flow. Lows will drop into the 20s again with highs around 40 both Monday and Tuesday. 33 They're feeling the sting from last week. 2 A forum for the end of the world. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RentonHill Posted December 7, 2022 Report Share Posted December 7, 2022 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest administrator Posted December 7, 2022 Report Share Posted December 7, 2022 20 minutes ago, TT-SEA said: They do play catch up... probably because they need to be conservative. But this time they are being aggressive with snow chances. I hope the three folks at Sandpoint who read this site around 8am everyday will see your helpful insight and change how they work. Maybe they'll just stop with the forecasting and copy and paste what you have. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Doinko Posted December 7, 2022 Report Share Posted December 7, 2022 Very cold air east of the cascades Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Slushy Inch Posted December 7, 2022 Report Share Posted December 7, 2022 3 minutes ago, Front Ranger said: They're feeling the sting from last week. Ensembles haven't given up; I wonder what EPS will show. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted December 7, 2022 Report Share Posted December 7, 2022 12 minutes ago, Front Ranger said: They're feeling the sting from last week. For sure... its really a precarious position when dealing with the public. **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MR.SNOWMIZER Posted December 7, 2022 Report Share Posted December 7, 2022 The chances for a heavy wet snow for the Puget sound are very real. Offshore flow, offshore flow. Could care less what the predicted 925 is at this point because the models do terrible taking into account wet bulb in a marginal air mass. 7 We come from the land of the ice and snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
smerfylicious Posted December 7, 2022 Report Share Posted December 7, 2022 Looks like my snowpack won't get the refresher it needs to make it to Christmas. That's okay, it'll have lasted on the ground for 2 weeks by the time it's gone. That's a great early season haul IMO. I remember living in Redmond, Kirkland and Renton growing up every major snowstorm I scored on. Inauguration day, 1996, 2005, 2006, 2008 are all ingrained in my memory. Since moving to Gold Bar my 2 Winters have had major scores that rival everything except for Hanukkah Eve and Bill Clinton's intro. Before last year I'd never had a winter where I scored more than 24" of snow and that got blown out of the water. Something is definitely brewing this year and I couldn't be happier with moving to a more snow-prone area. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MR.SNOWMIZER Posted December 7, 2022 Report Share Posted December 7, 2022 But it will be close and even 4-500ft will make a massive difference again. 3 We come from the land of the ice and snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Slushy Inch Posted December 7, 2022 Report Share Posted December 7, 2022 Just now, MR.SNOWMIZER said: The chances for a heavy wet snow for the Puget sound are very real. Offshore flow, offshore flow. Could care less what the predicted 925 is at this point because the models do terrible taking into account wet bulb in a marginal air mass. Good point, we have seen that over and over again. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Popular Post Anti Marine Layer Posted December 7, 2022 Popular Post Report Share Posted December 7, 2022 Big surprise here this morning. Have to post it somewhere other than the graveyard environment of the California thread. 13 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Slushy Inch Posted December 7, 2022 Report Share Posted December 7, 2022 Looks like great static shock conditions to me. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Timmy Posted December 7, 2022 Report Share Posted December 7, 2022 This is nice 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Slushy Inch Posted December 7, 2022 Report Share Posted December 7, 2022 1 minute ago, Timmy said: This is nice Troughing incoming afterwards, just like GEFS and EPS show! 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted December 7, 2022 Report Share Posted December 7, 2022 2 minutes ago, Mr Marine Layer said: Big surprise here this morning. Have to post it somewhere other than the graveyard environment of the California thread. That top pic is awesome. 2 **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RentonHill Posted December 7, 2022 Report Share Posted December 7, 2022 3 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rubus Leucodermis Posted December 7, 2022 Report Share Posted December 7, 2022 Snow cover still hanging on at my place despite the temperatures remaining above freezing through the night. Wet slop that turns into concrete after a hard freeze can be surprisingly persistent. Still expect a fair amount of melting in the next few days. That’s OK, snow has now lasted over a week already. Looking forward to the side streets melting clear and being able to ride a bike without risking a wipeout again. 1 It's called clown range for a reason. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MR.SNOWMIZER Posted December 7, 2022 Report Share Posted December 7, 2022 2 minutes ago, TT-SEA said: That top pic is awesome. I still think of you anytime i see a palm tree! Funny stuff and in fact when i was on vacation i was in a parking lot and when i saw the big palm tree i started snickering and my Fiancée asked me what was so funny and i had to tell her the whole story. 1 We come from the land of the ice and snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Doinko Posted December 7, 2022 Report Share Posted December 7, 2022 3 minutes ago, RentonHillTC said: Only 11 degrees while it's snowing 1 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MR.SNOWMIZER Posted December 7, 2022 Report Share Posted December 7, 2022 Just now, Doinko said: Only 11 degrees while it's snowing Pretty Typica right there. 3 We come from the land of the ice and snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard777 Posted December 7, 2022 Report Share Posted December 7, 2022 2 hours ago, TacomaWx said: It was a pretty solid 8 day run…but hopefully during the next round of winter weather we can manage some sub freezing highs. This event wasn’t particularly cold or in the top tier especially considering some events we’ve had in recent years…but still pretty solid. 11/28-40/35 11/29-40/31 0.7” 11/30-41/29 1.2” 12/1-34/25 0.8” 12/2-38/24 1.2” 12/3-44/33 0.2” 12/4-39/33 1.1” 12/5-39/34 I know we need to take baby steps down here in the South Sound but next time we need to get these wimpy measurement up to par…4-8 inches per storm works for me . I don’t want to settle…I want more!!! or I’ll trade everything in for one rowdy arctic front with 2-3 inches of snow with a huge dramatic overrunning event that tries to free us from the cold……but fails. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Doinko Posted December 7, 2022 Report Share Posted December 7, 2022 Just now, MR.SNOWMIZER said: Pretty Typica right there. Just your average 15"+ snowstorm for the Willamette Valley 3 1 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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