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PNW December 2022, winter might be coming; but mostly canceled.


The Blob

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1 minute ago, Nov1985 said:

I hope so. The next 8 days look to be low to mid 40s in most of western WA. We'll be ready for another cold spell by the 2nd half of the month. We can all log off here today and return on Friday Dec 16th. 🤣

It's actually going to get gradually colder even in the near term.

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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I'd imagine the wacky patterns depicted in the long range will clean themselves up in time, and a ridge in the sweet spot will pop up and stick there. Could be a glorious second half of December.

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Weather stats for MBY

Snowfall:

-Total snowfall since joining: 50.25"

-2018-19: 21"

-2019-20: 2.5"

-2020-21: 13"

-2021-22: 8.75"

-2022-23: 5.75"

-2023-24*: 0.25"

-Most recent snowfall: 0.25”; January 17th, 2024

-Largest snowfall (single storm): 8.5"; February 12-13, 2021

-Largest snow depth: 14"; 1:30am February 12th, 2019

Temperatures:

-Warmest: 109F; June 28th, 2021

-Coldest: 13F; December 27th, 2021

-Phreeze Count 2023-24: 31

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5 minutes ago, Front Ranger said:

SEA has seen just 3 above normal days since 10/31. 

Crazy.  

I am starting to wonder if next summer will be even more insane in terms of warmth.   

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**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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3 minutes ago, Meatyorologist said:

I'd imagine the wacky patterns depicted in the long range will clean themselves up in time, and a ridge in the sweet spot will pop up and stick there. Could be a glorious second half of December.

image.gif

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My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad.

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5 minutes ago, Meatyorologist said:

I'd imagine the wacky patterns depicted in the long range will clean themselves up in time, and a ridge in the sweet spot will pop up and stick there. Could be a glorious second half of December.

Wacky pattern? As in the huge ridge bridge, that's been advertised for a while now.

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15 minutes ago, Poulsbo Snowman said:

I'm beginning to believe that every month in our near future (and maybe long term) is going to feature extreme anomalies.  Without looking at the available records, recent memory recalls many extreme anomalies over the past 16 months or so, beginning in June of last year when western Washington was heating up to 110.

Last spring was the forever spring until July--then summer arrived and didn't end until the end of October.  Last month, we were substantially under average for temperatures--and it's beginning to look like December is going to make November child's play by the end of the month.  I'm thinking that for every future season--that particular season is going to feature extreme events.  Summertime extreme heat, without precipitation and wintertime extreme cold and snow--and that may be what we see for many years.  And we may even skip a few springs and falls along the way.

What I've noticed as much if not more than extreme anomalies is that patterns seem to lock in for such a long time.  Summer aside where rain doesn't happen much even on cooler Summers, it seems like other seasons would have a patten change every week or so. 

Now patterns just seem to get stuck.  Which could be why Seattle set a record for the biggest temperature difference one month to another October to November.  One month of pretty much every day being warmer than normal and then another month of pretty much every day colder than normal. 

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6 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

It's actually going to get gradually colder even in the near term.

If you exclude GFS forecasts (usually a good idea), it will be in the low to mid 40s every day going forward around Seattle, Everett, Tacoma area until Dec 16 or 17th. Still a couple of degrees below normal, especially after this weekend's big warmup.

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51 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

I can't figure out why they didn't fix the snow problem on the upgrade.  The snowfall maps are much better when very cold air is entrenched over the region of course.  Just eyeballing the 500mb pattern I think the initial trough is going to fall short of bringing much snow.  The stuff next week gets a lot more interesting.

Something big is coming. But it might be brutal cold and dry or a bad wind storm i just believe something major will hit us this winter.

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We come from the land of the ice and snow.

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21 minutes ago, 12345WeatherNerd said:

Wacky pattern? As in the huge ridge bridge, that's been advertised for a while now.

The amorphous blocking blobs, and the enormous number of cutoffs. Creates a meteorological alphabet soup. The pattern hardly makes any sense

Weather stats for MBY

Snowfall:

-Total snowfall since joining: 50.25"

-2018-19: 21"

-2019-20: 2.5"

-2020-21: 13"

-2021-22: 8.75"

-2022-23: 5.75"

-2023-24*: 0.25"

-Most recent snowfall: 0.25”; January 17th, 2024

-Largest snowfall (single storm): 8.5"; February 12-13, 2021

-Largest snow depth: 14"; 1:30am February 12th, 2019

Temperatures:

-Warmest: 109F; June 28th, 2021

-Coldest: 13F; December 27th, 2021

-Phreeze Count 2023-24: 31

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The incredible cold just continues in the Okanogan.  A number of places had highs in the teens over there today.  Amazing this might be just the appetizer for them.

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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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Just now, MR.SNOWMIZER said:

And even that is going to be a close call. 

The good news is this isn't unlike the the 10 days prior to the cold spell that just ended. Short term temps quietly crept upwards while the 10 to 14 day timeframe started to trend down, and later verified. 

 

 

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38 minutes ago, Poulsbo Snowman said:

I'm beginning to believe that every month in our near future (and maybe long term) is going to feature extreme anomalies.  Without looking at the available records, recent memory recalls many extreme anomalies over the past 16 months or so, beginning in June of last year when western Washington was heating up to 110.

Last spring was the forever spring until July--then summer arrived and didn't end until the end of October.  Last month, we were substantially under average for temperatures--and it's beginning to look like December is going to make November child's play by the end of the month.  I'm thinking that for every future season--that particular season is going to feature extreme events.  Summertime extreme heat, without precipitation and wintertime extreme cold and snow--and that may be what we see for many years.  And we may even skip a few springs and falls along the way.

Part of me thinks the atmosphere already knew Tonga was coming when we hit 116 in June 2021

bill nye chemistry GIF by NETFLIX

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Summer ☀️ grows while Winter ❄️  goes

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1 minute ago, MR.SNOWMIZER said:

So if it's off on the temp there will be much more snow. Plenty of moisture.

You have a somewhat realistic chance of scoring with this.   Most places not so much.  Too bad the trough is going to dig so far west.  Starting next week though the cold really settles in here.

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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2 minutes ago, Nov1985 said:

The good news is this isn't unlike the the 10 days prior to the cold spell that just ended. Short term temps quietly crept upwards while the 10 to 14 day timeframe started to trend down, and later verified. 

It's going to be fine overall.  The professional mets are already commenting on the next round of cold coming.

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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11 minutes ago, Meatyorologist said:

The amorphous blocking blobs, and the enormous number of cutoffs. Creates a meteorological alphabet soup. The pattern hardly makes any sense

It will give the models serious problems for sure.

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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I just want to mention the CFS is NOT on board. 

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Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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1 minute ago, Cascadia_Wx said:

But Andrew is bored ;)

No I am actually just pointing out a demonstrable fact. I wouldn't discount advanced machine learning AI either, I heard those things can read our minds. 

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Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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Our infrastructure would not sustain itself if we were to truly witness a June 2021 payback.

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Weather stats for MBY

Snowfall:

-Total snowfall since joining: 50.25"

-2018-19: 21"

-2019-20: 2.5"

-2020-21: 13"

-2021-22: 8.75"

-2022-23: 5.75"

-2023-24*: 0.25"

-Most recent snowfall: 0.25”; January 17th, 2024

-Largest snowfall (single storm): 8.5"; February 12-13, 2021

-Largest snow depth: 14"; 1:30am February 12th, 2019

Temperatures:

-Warmest: 109F; June 28th, 2021

-Coldest: 13F; December 27th, 2021

-Phreeze Count 2023-24: 31

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1 minute ago, Meatyorologist said:

Our infrastructure would not sustain itself if we were to truly witness a June 2021 payback.

One of these days I hope we all find out. But unfortunately down here we would probably just have some drizzle and BSF. 

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Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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Just now, SilverFallsAndrew said:

One of these days I hope we all find out. But unfortunately down here we would probably just have some drizzle and BSF. 

I think you will do well the end of next week.  Looks like some cold air already in place with light offshore breezes as that low moves towards us.  I'm hoping it comes in around Florence :).  I know, lots could change but I'm feeling middle to end of next week.

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Oh my god... The absolute pandemonium that would ensue on this forum if we even approached the equal and opposite equivalent of June 2021. It would be staggering. The sheer levels of ween would be intoxicating.

And given the cold bias on the GFS, its runs would be frighteningly even colder. -20s in the central Willamette. -15F at KSEA.

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Weather stats for MBY

Snowfall:

-Total snowfall since joining: 50.25"

-2018-19: 21"

-2019-20: 2.5"

-2020-21: 13"

-2021-22: 8.75"

-2022-23: 5.75"

-2023-24*: 0.25"

-Most recent snowfall: 0.25”; January 17th, 2024

-Largest snowfall (single storm): 8.5"; February 12-13, 2021

-Largest snow depth: 14"; 1:30am February 12th, 2019

Temperatures:

-Warmest: 109F; June 28th, 2021

-Coldest: 13F; December 27th, 2021

-Phreeze Count 2023-24: 31

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On 12/5/2022 at 7:13 PM, MR.SNOWMIZER said:

The snow is really not melting much here, it's so dense that the melt is very slow. Still 11.5 inches on the ground. High  today was only 34.

20221205_190750.jpg

That stuff could last a long time this winter.  I'm sure your high would have been at least 5 degrees warmer without snow.

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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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An almost left-turn accident disaster ruined my mood for model riding tonight. Near Lakewood when I was in the right of way, some d*uche from a side street saw me coming and still decided to go for a left turn at the last second and I was bare inches away from crashing into his left rear after blaring my horn and braking just in time. Unbelievable how these people can blissfully move on with their lives after this. I just keep replaying the scenario in my head on what could have happened, lucky to escape unscathed but still. 

I’m gonna need a synced full-fledged arctic snowstorm that lasts 2+ weeks on the GFS and Euro to make up for today. 😪

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𝘐𝘯 𝘮𝘺 𝘳𝘦𝘴𝘵𝘭𝘦𝘴𝘴 𝘥𝘳𝘦𝘢𝘮𝘴,

𝘐 𝘴𝘦𝘦 𝘵𝘩𝘢𝘵 𝘵𝘰𝘸𝘯.

𝘗𝘶𝘺𝘢𝘭𝘭𝘶𝘱.

Reddit: HotlineMaestro

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4 minutes ago, Meatyorologist said:

Oh my god... The absolute pandemonium that would ensue on this forum if we even approached the equal and opposite equivalent of June 2021. It would be staggering. The sheer levels of ween would be intoxicating.

And given the cold bias on the GFS, its runs would be frighteningly even colder. -20s in the central Willamette. -15F at KSEA.

Rumor has it some places were in the minus teens in the Puget Sound region in January 1893 and I believe NW OR did -20 somewhere in January 1930.  So those number are on the edge of possible.  Not in Seattle proper though IMO.

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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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4 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

One of these days I hope we all find out. But unfortunately down here we would probably just have some drizzle and BSF. 

I don't think such a N/S gradient would be possible. In order to get that kind of cold we would need a true body-blow PV advection; some kind of duo ridge tag-team to really blast a deep lobe of air so intense it would run well below average even north of the Arctic circle. If it got hung up at the border, the best we could do would be a Dec 1968 style event.

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Weather stats for MBY

Snowfall:

-Total snowfall since joining: 50.25"

-2018-19: 21"

-2019-20: 2.5"

-2020-21: 13"

-2021-22: 8.75"

-2022-23: 5.75"

-2023-24*: 0.25"

-Most recent snowfall: 0.25”; January 17th, 2024

-Largest snowfall (single storm): 8.5"; February 12-13, 2021

-Largest snow depth: 14"; 1:30am February 12th, 2019

Temperatures:

-Warmest: 109F; June 28th, 2021

-Coldest: 13F; December 27th, 2021

-Phreeze Count 2023-24: 31

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12 minutes ago, Meatyorologist said:

Oh my god... The absolute pandemonium that would ensue on this forum if we even approached the equal and opposite equivalent of June 2021. It would be staggering. The sheer levels of ween would be intoxicating.

And given the cold bias on the GFS, its runs would be frighteningly even colder. -20s in the central Willamette. -15F at KSEA.

Who pays the AWSbills?

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