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PNW December 2022, winter might be coming; but mostly canceled.


The Blob

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9 minutes ago, MR.SNOWMIZER said:

Man I can't believe I am 50 years old tomorrow.  The years just flew by. My wife has already been gone 6 years.

Life is a crazy trip man. Sometimes it seems like just yesterday I was a kid just screwing around and caring about  nothing but baseball. I'm only 38, but sometimes I feel old, like not my body but I just feel like I've seen so much and experienced so much.  I'm so sorry for your loss with your wife. I watched my dad go through that. 

Edited by SilverFallsAndrew
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Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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5 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Life is a crazy trip man. Sometimes it seems like just yesterday I was a kid just screwing around and caring about  nothing but baseball. I'm only 38, but sometimes I feel old, like not my body but I just feel like I've seen so much and experienced so much.  I'm so sorry for your loss with your wife. I watched my dad go through that. 

Thanks for the kind words brother.  Sorry about your Dad. 

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We come from the land of the ice and snow.

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1 hour ago, TT-SEA said:

I assume schools will be closed here tomorrow because there is snow on the ground.   😀

The Snoqualmie Valley school district goes through the same routine every year.   Early in the season they are shut down happy.    Then by later in the season they stay open through everything because they have run out of snow days.   I remember driving my kids to school in a blizzard one year... 40 mph wind whipping snow around and roads snow covered but the district was worried about going to school until almost July.  

You'd think they would learn!

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4 minutes ago, MR.SNOWMIZER said:

Thanks for the kind words brother.  Sorry about your Dad. 

I too am sorry for your loss.  I'm 45 and one thing I've learned is that life is very fragile.  

I know it''s cliche, but try and live life like today is your last day on earth.  I do know we probably won't though.  Most likely we will continue to worry about small things, have anxiety, and not be perfect human beings.  But we can at least try, can't we?!!  

It's nice to have weather to distract from things and I think for a lot of us, that is why we are here.  It's the best hobby IMO.

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1 minute ago, Terreboner said:

I too am sorry for your loss.  I'm 45 and one thing I've learned is that life is very fragile.  

I know it''s cliche, but try and live life like today is your last day on earth.  I do know we probably won't though. 

We will continue to worry about small things, have anxiety, and not be perfect human beings.  But we can at least try!!  

It's nice to have weather to distract from things and I think for a lot of us, that is why we are here.  It's the best hobby IMO.

I hear you man. My ex-brother in law got ALS and died at 29. I didn't know him all that well, but sometimes I wish I could have traded places with him. He never got to have a career he could be proud of, have kids, or really live his life. I'm not that old, but if I were to die tomorrow, I would be okay with my life. We aren't promised anything, we just assume. 

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Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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5 minutes ago, Perturbed Member said:

What do you think potentially drives that enhancement in precip over PDX? Pretty much on all models now. 

Seems like a needle-thread scenario, but my guess would be some low/mid level convergence near the gorge due to the optimal position of the low. And the easterlies stay weak enough to be a benefit and keep the lower levels somewhat saturated. There's not really any actual mid level CAA wrapping into it, so frontal lifting would be pretty weak and I imagine we'd be looking pretty exclusively at low topped stuff that is often very difficult for the models (and even the radar) to pick up.

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GEM looks nice. Next weekend has some potential. 

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Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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With how weird this storm that’s about to come through is, I feel like it has the potential to surprise some people. Not with much maybe an inch or two. But I feel like PDX could have a shot with the moisture some models are showing on Sunday. Hopefully it doesn’t end up trending too far north like the Euro is showing. Even though it trending north would probably put me in it I would like to see the Portland area score so you guys can have some snow going into this cold dry period as well!

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2023 - 2024 Cold Season Stats

Total Snowfall - 0.75”

Max Snow Depth - 0.5”

Coldest High Temp - 21 (Jan 13)

Coldest Low Temp - 9 (Jan 13)

Number of Freezes - 48

Sub-40 highs - 12

Highs 32 or lower - 3

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10 minutes ago, GHweatherChris said:

Guess we will find out how much faith Mr. Mass has in his beloved model lol!!

image.png

Igloo making competition in Neah Bay!

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Everett Snowfall (510 feet elevation)

Snow since February 2019: 91"

2023-24: 6"

2022-23: 17.5"

2021-22: 17.75"

2020-21: 14.5”

2019-20: 10.5"

2018-19: 24.75"

 

 

 

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GFS wants to keep us cold forever!  That thing around the 10th or so looks great on this run.

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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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6 minutes ago, Gradient Keeper said:

That's awful I am sorry. I lost my Dad 10 years ago to ALS. A horrific evil disease. Where has time gone. A decade? It's like we've been living in an alternative universe. Lost my brother in June. Still not coping with it. I'm 50 myself, and it just puts everything in a very clear perspective. This holiday season is rough, just have my Mother who sadly is declining now I think my brother passing has just taken too big of a toll on her. I see her fading every day with her memory and so on. It's killing me. Trying to be positive and had my nephew here today to decorate the house for Christmas. Thankfully all three of us were in good spirits today, enjoying each other, trying to make the best of it all. I just don't know and the future is very depressing. Since June I have been just very lost and destroyed. I have to find joy in life again somewhere. Thankful for this weather forum, all you weather geeks and geekstresses, and of course my PDX WX Analysis group on Facebook. I enjoy all of that tremendously and it is also a good distraction from things.

Brother I promise you that happiness will return.  After my wife died I truly thought I would never feel happy again, never smile or laugh. It returns. We lost a child 2 months ago and my fiancée is coming around, smiling and feeling better. It takes time but it will get better buddy.

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We come from the land of the ice and snow.

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4 minutes ago, MR.SNOWMIZER said:

Cold night up at the property in chesaw. 

Screenshot_20221201-204636_Reolink.jpg

I love it when the snow sparkles like that.

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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Really solid 00z GFS and GEM runs. 

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Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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1 minute ago, MR.SNOWMIZER said:

Brother I promise you that happiness will return.  After my wife died I truly thought I would never feel happy again, never smile or laugh. It returns. We lost a child 2 months ago and my fiancée is coming around, smiling and feeling better. It takes time but it will get better buddy.

You have such a great attitude considering the pain you have been through. 

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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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1 minute ago, MR.SNOWMIZER said:

I have been really good, I do not look past 120 hrs anymore.  Makes no sense. 

Incredible discipline.  Past day 7 or so I just look for strong signals and trends.  That thing around the 10th is really gaining momentum.

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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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