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PNW December 2022, winter might be coming; but mostly canceled.


The Blob

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Trough next Friday is pretty chilly on the GFS.... GEM too. 

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Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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That's a messy system next weekend on the GFS. If that were to trend a bit further south it could be a lot more than a Gorge snow event. 

gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_namer_32.png

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Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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By next Sunday an atmospheric river event in W. Oregon. 

gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_nwus_38.png

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Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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Just now, SilverFallsAndrew said:

By next Sunday an atmospheric river event in W. Oregon. 

gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_nwus_38.png

The pattern overall is very active which is a good thing. Could be seeing something similar to the winter of 2016-2017 where it was active the entire winter. Bodes well for all kinds of fun. Still early but I’m sensing things are gonna be very active with lots of storms, big rain events and snow events. 

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27 minutes ago, MR.SNOWMIZER said:

Checking obs around my cabin and there were a -13 -14 reading. Just by past history it was probably around -20 up there.  2 feet of snow on the ground.

How much higher are you than the surrounding valleys? I would have assumed you'd be a tad warmer if you have any relative elevation at all. Our place in Twisp is about 800ft above Twisp proper and was 4F vs -14F down in the valley.

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Pretty nice looking Arctic air precursor pattern setting up on the long range 12z GFS.

image.png

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Cold Season 2023/24:

Total snowfall: 26"

Highest daily snowfall: 5"

Deepest snow depth: 12"

Coldest daily high: -20ºF

Coldest daily low: -42ºF

Number of subzero days: 5

Personal Weather Station on Wunderground: 

https://www.wunderground.com/personal-weather-station/dashboard?ID=KMTBOZEM152#history

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5 minutes ago, Everleigh said:

It's so tempting to just keep the kids home today. But, high school. AP classes. Honors classes. 

Sometimes I miss the easier elementary school days......

Tried to convince the little sis who I drive to UWT for her morning class to just skip for today cause I don’t wanna risk anything with black ice. It’s college, no one cares if you go or not. 😂

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𝘐𝘯 𝘮𝘺 𝘳𝘦𝘴𝘵𝘭𝘦𝘴𝘴 𝘥𝘳𝘦𝘢𝘮𝘴,

𝘐 𝘴𝘦𝘦 𝘵𝘩𝘢𝘵 𝘵𝘰𝘸𝘯.

𝘗𝘶𝘺𝘢𝘭𝘭𝘶𝘱.

Reddit: HotlineMaestro

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2 minutes ago, RentonHillTC said:

How much higher are you than the surrounding valleys? I would have assumed you'd be a tad warmer if you have any relative elevation at all. Our place in Twisp is about 800ft above Twisp proper and was 4F vs -14F down in the valley.

I'm at 3800ft but it's just a cold area. The local valley below my cabin is even colder. I have seen -10 at cabin and -25 in the little valley which is still 2500ft.

We come from the land of the ice and snow.

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5 minutes ago, SouthHillFrosty said:

This looks familiar….

E4903346-9D5F-4E00-A30D-22F787BC491F.jpeg

Wow!

Home Weather Station Stats for 2023

High - Satans Bunghole

Lowest High - Not sure

Low - I don't have the data

Sub 40 highs - Not quite

Sub-freezing highs - Try again

Lows below 25 - You're joking

Lows below 20 - No

2023 Snowfall - LOL

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2 minutes ago, MossMan said:

Good morning Omak from my motel room. Up to 4 degrees! It’s over. 

89E4EB19-684E-4B18-9A32-B682A3F3AF0C.jpeg

Whoever left that car there... its buried!  

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**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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2 minutes ago, MossMan said:

Good morning Omak from my motel room. Up to 4 degrees! It’s over. 

89E4EB19-684E-4B18-9A32-B682A3F3AF0C.jpeg

Go into North 40 store while you are there. My favorite store in the world. They have everything!!! It's right there about 1/2 mile from you 

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We come from the land of the ice and snow.

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32 minutes ago, TacomaWx said:

The pattern overall is very active which is a good thing. Could be seeing something similar to the winter of 2016-2017 where it was active the entire winter. Bodes well for all kinds of fun. Still early but I’m sensing things are gonna be very active with lots of storms, big rain events and snow events. 

I agree. 

Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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Yeah another great chilly trough after that AR event. Freshen up that snow pack. At the end of the run there is a ton of cold air building in NW Canada too. 

gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_nwus_47.png

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Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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48 minutes ago, TacomaWx said:

Based on the euro vs gfs for 925mb temps later today…I’m thinking the main event today will likely be this morning. Some more precip moving in from the SW right now so more snow possible. Could get some tonight but I think this morning May end up more impressive for areas along I-5. 

I'm pretty skeptical I get anything up here. Looks like I will be in a similar drying slot to Tuesday and when the precipitation gets up here (if it does) most of the models forecast it will be too warm for snow. Which is classic, but if I've missed out three times what's a fourth time?

Temperature did get pretty cold here last night early on dropping to 21.5F before popping up to 27F by midnight. Currently a 35/29 spread.

Home Wx Station Stats (Since January 2008):

Max Temp: 96.3F (2009)   Min Temp: 2.0F (2008)   Max Wind Gust: 45 mph (2018, 2021)   Wettest Day: 2.34 (11/4/22)   Avg Yearly Precip: 37"   10yr Avg Snow: 8.0"

Snowfall Totals

'08-09: 30" | '09-10: 0.5" | '10-11: 21" | '11-12: 9.5" | '12-13: 0.2" | '13-14: 6.2" | '14-15: 0.0" | '15-16: 0.25"| '16-17: 8.0" | '17-18: 0.9"| '18-19: 11.5" | '19-20: 11" | '20-21: 10.5" | '21-22: 21.75" | '22-23: 10.0" 

2023-24: 7.0" (1/17: 3", 1/18: 1.5", 2/26: 0.5", 3/4: 2.0", Flakes: 1/11, 1/16)

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13 minutes ago, MR.SNOWMIZER said:

Been driving to my cabin for ten years and thats the most snow i have ever seen in omak.

One of my work contacts that lives here said they just got hit day after day over the last few weeks, sounds like that is pretty unusual for this area. 

Elevation 580’ Location a few miles east of I-5 on the Snohomish Co side of the Snohomish/Skagit border. I love snow/cold AND sun/warmth! 

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1 minute ago, MossMan said:

At least no split flow in sight just yet!! 

January.

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Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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Pretty epic event on the 12z. Not that that would actually happen, but it does seem like before the 15th would be the some of the last windows for snow in December.1670954400-Vhcpfh6gpLs.png

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My Weather Station:  https://ambientweather.net/dashboard/b415ff35b2d13f00c899051028f04466 

Located in North Seattle, elevation ~150ft. Highest temperature ever recorded is 110.3, lowest is 14.5.

My Twitter

 

 

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47 minutes ago, MR.SNOWMIZER said:

Look at this bad boy Tim.  Ordered for my cabin. It's huge!! Has hand warmers and fuel injection  

20221202_083508.jpg

20221202_083502.jpg

I've used an Ariens before at my job.  Turning is so easy, you just apply a little more pressure to one of the handles and it turns effortlessly.  And I do like how it's so much easier to turn the chute from side to side.   

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4 minutes ago, gusky said:

Pretty epic event on the 12z. Not that that would actually happen, but it does seem like before the 15th would be the some of the last windows for snow in December.1670954400-Vhcpfh6gpLs.png

I'm actually a bit perplexed w/ this comment because how can we say "seems like the 15th would be last window for snow in December" when the run ends on the 18th? What's the rationality here? 

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27 minutes ago, MR.SNOWMIZER said:

Been driving to my cabin for ten years and thats the most snow i have ever seen in omak.

They had that really big snow on November 6th, and it hasn't warmed up since.  And of course there has been some snow since then.  

A base of about 18 inches at my house, and a bit more by the fish hatchery and the cross country ski trails there.  Altogether we have 3 areas of cross country ski trails in town.

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