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PNW December 2022, winter might be coming; but mostly canceled.


The Blob

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Amazing difference between the GFS and ECMWF for Sunday... GFS is just insistent on hitting Portland on every run.   No wavering.   ECMWF has never shown that scenario.

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**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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Just now, TT-SEA said:

Amazing difference between the GFS and ECMWF for Sunday... GFS is just insistent on hitting Portland on every run.   No wavering.   ECMWF has never shown that scenario.

Just as this pattern is hell for the NWS, it's super tricky for the models. Look how much things have changed just in the past 12 hours for what they're showing for the Puget Sound.

Low level, legit cold is the hardest for them to deal with. Always take the Euro over GFS, but in cases like this I'm not sure it's that much better for precip type.

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A forum for the end of the world.

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7 minutes ago, Front Ranger said:

Doubt it will be that much, but the way the situation is evolving is a classic sneaky off-shore setup for Portland. As long as you can get the precip.

NAM and GFS both show 0.4"+ now of precip on Sunday for Portland, so decent precip looking increasingly likely at least. Just a sharp disagreement on the depth of the cold air layer over the area. Reality may well be somewhere in the middle, GFS looks overly aggressive as usual with the lower level cooling.

Edited by BLI snowman
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1 minute ago, HoodCanalBridge said:

Rain until about 15 minutes ago when it switched to a rain/snow mix up near the northern portion of the canal.   Currently having periods of snow transitioning back and forth to rain/snow mix. 

It's always funny how you get the changeover a bit before me despite being practically next door. 

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Just now, BLI snowman said:

NAM and GFS both show 0.4"+ now of precip on Sunday for Portland, so decent precip looking increasingly likely at least now. Just a sharp disagreement on the depth of the cold air layer over the area. Reality may well be somewhere in the middle, GFS looks overly aggressive as usual with the lower level cooling.

Yeah. Could see this being an ice-maker for parts of the metro, too.

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Just now, BLI snowman said:

NAM and GFS both show 0.4"+ now of precip on Sunday for Portland, so decent precip looking increasingly likely at least now. Just a sharp disagreement on the depth of the cold air layer over the area. Reality may well be somewhere in the middle, GFS looks overly aggressive as usual with the lower level cooling.

Yeah, but sometimes the GFS/WRF does pretty good with low level cold and with 36 hours or so of strong east winds I really think immediate PDX metro could be sufficiently cold enough.

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8 minutes ago, jakerepp said:

Mother in law says heavy snow in Edmonds now. 

Radar showed precip overhead for a while before this but she said it was dry.

From the video she sent me, 'heavy' appears to be a bit hyperbolic.

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Home Weather Station Stats for 2023

High - Satans Bunghole

Lowest High - Not sure

Low - I don't have the data

Sub 40 highs - Not quite

Sub-freezing highs - Try again

Lows below 25 - You're joking

Lows below 20 - No

2023 Snowfall - LOL

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1 minute ago, BLI snowman said:

NAM and GFS both show 0.4"+ now of precip on Sunday for Portland, so decent precip looking increasingly likely at least now. Just a sharp disagreement on the depth of the cold air layer over the area. Reality may well be somewhere in the middle, GFS looks overly aggressive as usual with the lower level cooling.

Not just about temps... the ECMWF shows barely any precip reaching Portland.

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31 minutes ago, SnowPlz said:

I don’t want to talk about it  

06813A73-22B4-4BEF-A133-9523F1DC07B3.jpeg

You're on Bainbridge, aren't you?  We have become the new swamp. You should add it too your profile and be proud.  🤪

Admins, can we get a "The new Swamp"  tag for any Bainbridge residents?  😂

A few years ago I would be super upset right now, but I have grown patience.  Maybe a half inch total here for the whole week.  You win some, you lose some.  I have been expecting rain tonight.  I got it.

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1 minute ago, Randyc321 said:

You're on Bainbridge, aren't you?  We have become the new swamp. You should add it too your profile and be proud.  🤪

Admins, can we get a "The new Swamp" for any Bainbridge residents?  😂

A few years ago I would be super upset right now, but I have grown patience.  Maybe a half inch total here for the whole week.  You win some, you lose some.  I have been expecting rain tonight.  I got it.

We lose them all on Bainbridge haha 

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1 minute ago, Randyc321 said:

You're on Bainbridge, aren't you?  We have become the new swamp. You should add it too your profile and be proud.  🤪

Admins, can we get a "The new Swamp" for any Bainbridge residents?  😂

A few years ago I would be super upset right now, but I have grown patience.  Maybe a half inch total here for the whole week.  You win some, you lose some.  I have been expecting rain tonight.  I got it.

It's turning to snow all around you...probably will soon for you, too.

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1 minute ago, Randyc321 said:

You're on Bainbridge, aren't you?  We have become the new swamp. You should add it too your profile and be proud.  🤪

Admins, can we get a "The new Swamp" for any Bainbridge residents?  😂

A few years ago I would be super upset right now, but I have grown patience.  Maybe a half inch total here for the whole week.  You win some, you lose some.  I have been expecting rain tonight.  I got it.

Kingston, Indianola, Suquamish, and Bainbridge always get skunked... until we don't. It's frustrating, but we should expect it at this point. 

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Just now, Front Ranger said:

It's turning to snow all around you...probably will soon for you, too.

Not necessarily.  I have literally watched it rain in Oregon City, West Linn, Gladstone, Milwaukie while it is a blizzard a few miles down the road.  Some areas just are what they are.

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2 minutes ago, Gradient Keeper said:

Yeah, but sometimes the GFS/WRF does pretty good with low level cold and with 36 hours or so of strong east winds I really think immediate PDX metro could be sufficiently cold enough.

Definitely possible.

Even the Euro's main issue appears to be the precip rates really just being too sparse. If you look at the 18z output it continues to show dewpoints advecting down to 18 at PDX by Sunday early morning. That's a very sufficiently deep layer of continental air, and a general rule of thumb of mine is that <20 dewpoints at PDX means some sort of overrunning.

web_ECMWF_Text_18z_HourlyData.jpg

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Just now, BLI snowman said:

Definitely possible.

Even the Euro's main issue appears to be the precip rates really just being too sparse. If you look at the 18z output it continues to show dewpoints advecting down to 18 at PDX by Sunday early morning. That's a very sufficiently deep layer of continental air, and a general rule of thumb of mine is that <20 dewpoints at PDX means some sort of overrunning.

web_ECMWF_Text_18z_HourlyData.jpg

GEM also looks to be showing a decent amount of precip, though mostly only 1-2" snow west metro and not much east metro. Maybe if that cold is being underdone we could see a nice event. Didn't the Euro also underdo the precip for today's system in the Sound?

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5 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

Not just about temps... the ECMWF shows barely any precip reaching Portland.

Yeah, see my post below.

NAM still scours out the cold layer pretty quickly though, despite showing plenty of precip. I think the truth will be somewhere in between. NAM has an almost WAA look to it despite a total lack of any onshore component, so its solution on Sunday evening also looks unlikely IMO.

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