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PNW December 2022, winter might be coming; but mostly canceled.


The Blob

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7 minutes ago, KingstonWX said:

It's always funny how you get the changeover a bit before me despite being practically next door. 

It's interesting.  We had snow this morning at work - in Kingston - and no snow at home.   But these hood canal events seem to be favorable for my neighborhood.   I grew up and bought my first house in Kingston, and the microclimates just in North Kitsap are crazy!

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3 minutes ago, Terreboner said:

Not necessarily.  I have literally watched it rain in Oregon City, West Linn, Gladstone, Milwaukie while it is a blizzard a few miles down the road.  Some areas just are what they are.

There was this guy Eric on the old Fox 12 Weather Blog that would keep going on about the anti-weather dome over Milwaukie.

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It's called clown range for a reason.

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39/30 with light rain. The fact the dew point is below freezing gives me a glimmer of hope, but considering the temperature is currently going the wrong way it's only a glimmer.

Home Wx Station Stats (Since January 2008):

Max Temp: 96.3F (2009)   Min Temp: 2.0F (2008)   Max Wind Gust: 45 mph (2018, 2021)   Wettest Day: 2.34 (11/4/22)   Avg Yearly Precip: 37"   10yr Avg Snow: 8.0"

Snowfall Totals

'08-09: 30" | '09-10: 0.5" | '10-11: 21" | '11-12: 9.5" | '12-13: 0.2" | '13-14: 6.2" | '14-15: 0.0" | '15-16: 0.25"| '16-17: 8.0" | '17-18: 0.9"| '18-19: 11.5" | '19-20: 11" | '20-21: 10.5" | '21-22: 21.75" | '22-23: 10.0" 

2023-24: 7.0" (1/17: 3", 1/18: 1.5", 2/26: 0.5", 3/4: 2.0", Flakes: 1/11, 1/16)

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2 minutes ago, HoodCanalBridge said:

It's interesting.  We had snow this morning at work - in Kingston - and no snow at home.   But these hood canal events seem to be favorable for my neighborhood.   I grew up and bought my first house in Kingston, and the microclimates just in North Kitsap are crazy!

Oh yea, a lot of things you learn about weather living here. For example, when there's a region-wide windstorm, we often get no wind at all during the event, but then massive wind as it exits the area and is clear and sunny. 

I remember last year or the year before, there was one snow event where Hansville, Poulsbo, Silverdale, Bremerton, etc. all got a big snow dump, and we all got nothing, but then as the system was winding down somehow a single precip cell stalled over us and dumped more for us than the others got during the initial event. It's weird  here, and I'm ok with that. 

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Just now, KingstonWX said:

I fully agree. Definitely the best area to live in Washington, in my opinion, and I've lived in a lot of them.

I love that area... my wife and I were talking about finding a house on the water over there when we there in July.

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**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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6 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

Not just about temps... the ECMWF shows barely any precip reaching Portland.

The euro is showing very different outcomes every single run. The other models are seeming to jump onto the GFS bandwagon in terms of precip at least. The new GEM and RGEM both have 0.50 in qpf for PDX and the NAM is pretty wet too. 

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2 minutes ago, HoodCanalBridge said:

It's interesting.  We had snow this morning at work - in Kingston - and no snow at home.   But these hood canal events seem to be favorable for my neighborhood.   I grew up and bought my first house in Kingston, and the microclimates just in North Kitsap are crazy!

When Bainbridge does get snow, there is much more accumulation just a quarter mile uphill from my place. Every time. In 2022 it was a 5 minute walk separating 2 and 5 inches of snow on the ground. 

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Just now, TT-SEA said:

I love that area... my wife and I were talking about finding a house on the water over there when we there in July.

I spent 10 years dreaming of living over here and looking at houses, while living in Renton, Sammamish, and then Arlington/Trafton area. Arlington/Trafton was the best area I've ever lived in when it comes to snow, but it's just not even remotely close to comparing to all the benefits of living over here. 

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6 minutes ago, Doinko said:

GEM also looks to be showing a decent amount of precip, though mostly only 1-2" snow west metro and not much east metro. Maybe if that cold is being underdone we could see a nice event. Didn't the Euro also underdo the precip for today's system in the Sound?

The 12z Euro today definitely appears that it's going to be a little underdone, but previous runs were wetter.

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2 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

I love that area... my wife and I were talking about finding a house on the water over there when we there in July.

Oh and pro-tip: You can get a house on a 100% private lake that you own over here for way cheaper than you can for the price of a house on the sound. I highly recommend it 😉

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12 minutes ago, Terreboner said:

Not necessarily.  I have literally watched it rain in Oregon City, West Linn, Gladstone, Milwaukie while it is a blizzard a few miles down the road.  Some areas just are what they are.

Oh yeah, the Washington County Donut Hole extends into Clackamas County too.

At least it's better than Canby and Aurora.

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Rain/snow mix here. Probably only 30/70 snow, precipitation is actually fairly moderate so hopefully it’ll transition to snow soon.

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2022-23 Winter:

11/29: .25" + 1" = 1.25" | 11/30: .25"

12/2: .2" + .5" = .7" | 12/3: .2" | 12/4: trace

12/18: .4" | 12/19: .2" + .8" = 1.0" | 12/20: .2 + 1.5" = 1.7

1/31: trace | 2/14: trace | 2/22: .2 | 2/26: 1.0"

Total: 6.7"

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1 minute ago, KingstonWX said:

Oh and pro-tip: You can get a house on a 100% private lake that you own over here for way cheaper than you can for the price of a house on the sound. I highly recommend it 😉

My wife and I live across the street from the canal in our neighborhood with barely a sliver of a view.   It's definitely a goal to be on the water some day!   You can get on the canal quite a bit cheaper once you cross the bridge.  As my wealthy retired neighbor across the street says, they're not really building much more water front!  

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Starting out as fairly dry snow here.  We'll see if it stays snow or not.

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  • Snow 1

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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4 minutes ago, Perturbed Member said:

The euro is showing very different outcomes every single run. The other models are seeming to jump onto the GFS bandwagon in terms of precip at least. The new GEM and RGEM both have 0.50 in qpf for PDX and the NAM is pretty wet too. 

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Sunday’s system is a game time decision on just about every level with a pretty marginal upside. Surface temps at best will probably be in 33-34 range at the zenith of the event within whatever deformation bullseye.

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My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad.

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2 minutes ago, Ice_is_Everywhere said:

Can someone post a map?

 

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2023 - 2024 Cold Season Stats

Total Snowfall - 0.75”

Max Snow Depth - 0.5”

Coldest High Temp - 21 (Jan 13)

Coldest Low Temp - 9 (Jan 13)

Number of Freezes - 48

Sub-40 highs - 12

Highs 32 or lower - 3

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3 minutes ago, Omegaraptor said:

Oh yeah, the Washington County Donut Hole extends into Clackamas County too.

At least it's better than Canby and Aurora.

My dad lives off of Beaver Creek rd., almost smack dab between Clarkes and the Meadowbrook store.  Almost 800' ASL and he gets rain a lot when it's snowing all around him.  He does get some good snows though with CAA that is marginal for PDX.  But, man, those south winds are a killer on that side of town (SE).

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QPF for the Sunday system. GFS, GEM, RGEM, NAM. Some consensus starting to form here. Hopefully we can get the 00z Euro on board. If the precip really will be that solid, I'm not worried about the temps. It won't be impressively cold but I think this airmass gets the job done given steady moderate precip. 

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Light flurries just started here. Radar’s looking good and the WRF gives the hills between Northgate and Everett 3-4” tonight.

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Everett Snowfall (510 feet elevation)

Snow since February 2019: 91"

2023-24: 6"

2022-23: 17.5"

2021-22: 17.75"

2020-21: 14.5”

2019-20: 10.5"

2018-19: 24.75"

 

 

 

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6 minutes ago, KingstonWX said:

I spent 10 years dreaming of living over here and looking at houses, while living in Renton, Sammamish, and then Arlington/Trafton area. Arlington/Trafton was the best area I've ever lived in when it comes to snow, but it's just not even remotely close to comparing to all the benefits of living over here. 

Beautiful area. If I had to pick a spot on the water it would be for sure somewhere around seabeck.  Million dollar view. Problem is most everything is out of my price range. But you can be on the water and still do good with snow events. 

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We come from the land of the ice and snow.

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The 0z GFS is pretty wet and has lower 925mb temps than previous runs.  Intriguing.

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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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Just now, SnowPlz said:

I know. The effect is extreme here though. I’ve lived by the water most of my life in different areas. And it’s less than 100 feet of elevation gain 

Lake Stevens is the same way.  Right on the lake is night and day compared to 100' above the lake to the east.

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4 minutes ago, Cold Snap said:

 

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The beat rolls on.

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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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3 minutes ago, Perturbed Member said:

QPF for the Sunday system. GFS, GEM, RGEM, NAM. Some consensus starting to form here. Hopefully we can get the 00z Euro on board. If the precip really will be that solid, I'm not worried about the temps. It won't be impressively cold but I think this airmass gets the job done given steady moderate precip. 

qpf_024h.us_nw.png

 

qpf_024h.us_nw.png

 

qpf_024h.us_nw.png

qpf_024h.us_nw.png

Great post. That's much better agreement.

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