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PNW December 2022, winter might be coming; but mostly canceled.


The Blob

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Just now, SnowPlz said:

I know. The effect is extreme here though. I’ve lived by the water most of my life in different areas. And it’s less than 100 feet of elevation gain 

 

1 minute ago, SnowPlz said:

I know. The effect is extreme here though. I’ve lived by the water most of my life in different areas. And it’s less than 100 feet of elevation gain 

Doesn't take much around here.  I have the same issues around my home.

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4 minutes ago, HoodCanalBridge said:

My wife and I live across the street from the canal in our neighborhood with barely a sliver of a view.   It's definitely a goal to be on the water some day!   You can get on the canal quite a bit cheaper once you cross the bridge.  As my wealthy retired neighbor across the street says, they're not really building much more water front!  

I have thought about Chimacum area waterfront, Shine, etc. over there, but I just can't replicate what I have here, and I bought in 2012 so I got a smokin deal. Hard to get anything even remotely comparable now, even for the massive haul I'd get if I sold. I think I'd need to move to Eastern WA or somewhere over on the OlyPen to really being able to cash out.

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29 minutes ago, KingstonWX said:

33 and still nothing but drizzle here, but looks like this heavier band is the one causing everyone to turn over to snow, so I guess we shall see when it arrives. 

Somehow I have dropped to 35 and have a real thick slushy substance falling.   Who knows, it may happen.  It's dumping, that's for sure.

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5 minutes ago, MR.SNOWMIZER said:

Beautiful area. If I had to pick a spot on the water it would be for sure somewhere around seabeck.  Million dollar view. Problem is most everything is out of my price range. But you can be on the water and still do good with snow events. 

I actually love Seabeck. The water and mountain views are amazing, and the snow is amazing, but the tweakers are horrendous. Plus it has the same problem Woodinville does, where it just stays way too dark in a lot of places and gets kinda depressing. Also, Smokin' Robinsons closed and moved to McClouds in Bremerton, so that's almost a deal breaker.

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4 minutes ago, Deweydog said:

Sunday’s system is a game time decision on just about every level with a pretty marginal upside. Surface temps at best will probably be in 33-34 range at the zenith of the event within whatever deformation bullseye.

Euro shows DPs in the teens and temps in the mid 30s early Sunday AM at PDX. You don't think those numbers will materialize?

It seems like that airmass with steady precip should get it done. IMO the question is more about if the precip materializes more than the airmass.

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12 minutes ago, SnowPlz said:

When Bainbridge does get snow, there is much more accumulation just a quarter mile uphill from my place. Every time. In 2022 it was a 5 minute walk separating 2 and 5 inches of snow on the ground. 

The effect of elevation is bigger on Bainbridge than anywhere I’ve ever lived. In 2007-08 I got 19” between a bunch of different events at 300’ and my friend who lives right on the water literally got less than 2”. Never snowed with a temperature below 32.5 that whole Winter at my house.

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Everett Snowfall (510 feet elevation)

Snow since February 2019: 91"

2023-24: 6"

2022-23: 17.5"

2021-22: 17.75"

2020-21: 14.5”

2019-20: 10.5"

2018-19: 24.75"

 

 

 

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Just now, bainbridgekid said:

The effect of elevation is bigger on Bainbridge than anywhere I’ve ever lived. In 2007-08 I got 19” between a bunch of different events at 300’ and my friend who lives right on the water literally got less than 2”. Never snowed with a temperature below 32.5 that whole Winter at my house.

That’s what I’m saying. And it varies wildly all over the island 

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2 minutes ago, KingstonWX said:

I actually love Seabeck. The water views are amazing, and the snow is amazing, but the tweakers are horrendous. Plus it has the same problem Woodinville does, where it just stays way too dark in a lot of places and gets kinda depressing. Also, Smokin' Robinsons closed and moved to McClouds in Bremerton, so that's almost a deal breaker.

Tweakers are everywhere.  It's getting really bad all over the place.

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We come from the land of the ice and snow.

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Just now, bainbridgekid said:

The effect of elevation is bigger on Bainbridge than anywhere I’ve ever lived. In 2007-08 I got 19” between a bunch of different events at 300’ and my friend who lives right on the water literally got less than 2”. Never snowed with a temperature below 32.5 that whole Winter at my house.

North Kitsap is the same way. I have barely had more than a trace on the ground throughout all these recent events, but my kids have been out of school for 2 days because the entire district is closed. 

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1 minute ago, bainbridgekid said:

The effect of elevation is bigger on Bainbridge than anywhere I’ve ever lived. In 2007-08 I got 19” between a bunch of different events at 300’ and my friend who lives right on the water literally got less than 2”. Never snowed with a temperature below 32.5 that whole Winter at my house.

To be fair, that winter had an extreme, atypical elevation gradient everywhere, though. 

A forum for the end of the world.

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Just now, MR.SNOWMIZER said:

Tweakers are everywhere.  It's getting really bad all over the place.

Yes they are, but their concentration is not. You'd be hard pressed to see many tweakers in Bainbridge or in the nice areas of Kingston, outside of maybe some high school kids experimenting or some weirdos camping in the woods. 

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1 minute ago, bainbridgekid said:

The effect of elevation is bigger on Bainbridge than anywhere I’ve ever lived. In 2007-08 I got 19” between a bunch of different events at 300’ and my friend who lives right on the water literally got less than 2”. Never snowed with a temperature below 32.5 that whole Winter at my house.

We get so much snow out here with a temp between 30-32.    Probably the majority of our snow.    My relatives in Minnesota don't believe me.    😀

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**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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4 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

We get so much snow out here with a temp between 30-32.    Probably the majority of our snow.    My relatives in Minnesota don't believe me.    😀

Snoqualmie Pass probably does too. It’s amazing how many 32 degree snowstorms they get just barely holding on with the East wind. 

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Everett Snowfall (510 feet elevation)

Snow since February 2019: 91"

2023-24: 6"

2022-23: 17.5"

2021-22: 17.75"

2020-21: 14.5”

2019-20: 10.5"

2018-19: 24.75"

 

 

 

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1 minute ago, Perturbed Member said:

Euro shows DPs in the teens and temps in the mid 30s early Sunday AM at PDX. You don't think those numbers will materialize?

It seems like that airmass with steady precip should get it done. IMO the question is more about if the precip materializes more than the airmass.

I suspect it’s a little overzealous, but not ridiculous. The ambient temp might be close, but I’m skeptical we’ll see DP’s verify that low, especially giving any kind of nod to the wetter models.

It’s a unique setup, although it has some similarities to 1/3/16. That event featured a similar, somewhat nebulous frontogenic entity with lowering heights/thicknesses/850mb temps from south to north. Of course that event had a significantly colder low level seed air mass.

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My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad.

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GFS is just nothing but cold for a long time.

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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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7 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

We get so much snow out here with a temp between 30-32.    Probably the majority of our snow.    My relatives in Minnesota don't believe me.    😀

The pass gets a bunch at those temps. Steven's gets a bunch 28-30. Most of my snow at cabin falls between 15-20 temps. The powder there is amazing.  I normally use my leaf blower on the deck after a snowfall.

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We come from the land of the ice and snow.

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13 minutes ago, bainbridgekid said:

The effect of elevation is bigger on Bainbridge than anywhere I’ve ever lived. In 2007-08 I got 19” between a bunch of different events at 300’ and my friend who lives right on the water literally got less than 2”. Never snowed with a temperature below 32.5 that whole Winter at my house.

That stands as the most elevation dependent winter I've ever seen.  It was pretty frustrating for many.

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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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1 minute ago, SnowySeeker50 said:

Coming down pretty good with an image from an intersection cam. Trace coating on grass/cars.

image212.jpg

Looks like we might in luck.  This cold air mass was pretty legit.

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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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2 minutes ago, Deweydog said:

I suspect it’s a little overzealous, but not ridiculous. The ambient temp might be close, but I’m skeptical we’ll see DP’s verify that low, especially giving any kind of nod to the wetter models.

It’s a unique setup, although it has some similarities to 1/3/16. That event featured a similar, somewhat nebulous frontogenic entity with lowering heights/thicknesses/850mb temps from south to north. Of course that event had a significantly colder low level seed air mass.

Any thoughts on this not so believable looking mechanism driving the precip on Sunday? The low is far away and looks fairly anemic. Seems a bit hard to believe you can get a widespread area of 0.4+ in QPF seemingly out of nothing.

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6 minutes ago, Deweydog said:

I suspect it’s a little overzealous, but not ridiculous. The ambient temp might be close, but I’m skeptical we’ll see DP’s verify that low, especially giving any kind of nod to the wetter models.

It’s a unique setup, although it has some similarities to 1/3/16. That event featured a similar, somewhat nebulous frontogenic entity with lowering heights/thicknesses/850mb temps from south to north. Of course that event had a significantly colder low level seed air mass.

Seed air mass.

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We come from the land of the ice and snow.

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