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PNW December 2022, winter might be coming; but mostly canceled.


The Blob

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1 minute ago, KingstonWX said:

People who live in your area can't complain about not getting snow. There's like 57,945 examples of times when you got snow measured in feet when the people closer to the sound had to deal with cold rain. Those are the rules, I don't make them.

For once I want to see Mossman get 1 inch while every other location gets 3 feet 😂 #resilience 

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One thing about this regime we are in is it presents a number of different scenarios capable of producing snow.  Eventually everyone should get in on something good.

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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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2 minutes ago, SnowWillarrive said:

For once I want to see Mossman get 1 inch while every other location gets 3 feet 😂 #resilience 

We actually got more than him earlier in the week.

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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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3 minutes ago, BurienSnowGlobe said:

Dumping rain here at home in Central District. Our manager at the pizza shop called and said it was dumping snow in Burien so we shut down delivery. Any reports over there of sticking snow or did they just want to go home? 🤣

It’s sticking here, a little north, but roads are mostly wet.

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23 minutes ago, BLI snowman said:

The low level airmass in the Basin in early January 2016 was definitely colder. On the other hand, the window for snowfall with that was really pretty minor due to the rapid WAA aloft and we basically just cashed in with that first solid band. Sunday appears to at least have a longer window for snow with a steady supply of offshore flow throughout the lower levels throughout the duration and with no real WAA aloft.

I really think it will mostly just come down to precip rates, especially since there is that little warm layer aloft prior to the onset and it will take a little bit to get the whole column back below freezing. I think 31-32 is our best case scenario with it, maybe closer to 33 over at subtropical PDX.

Not much. It's 18/12 currently in Pasco.

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A forum for the end of the world.

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5 minutes ago, KingstonWX said:

People who live in your area can't complain about not getting snow. There's like 57,945 examples of times when you got snow measured in feet when the people closer to the sound had to deal with cold rain. Those are the rules, I don't make them.

Yes I can remember many many arctic air on shore flow deals that people in the cascade foothills get slammed and us over here on kitsap in the rain shadow get nothing.  ZERO.

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We come from the land of the ice and snow.

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4 minutes ago, Front Ranger said:

I think you're looking too much at current obs and not what they will be on Sunday.

The source air mass in 2016 was not colder than this one.

It was 24 degrees here when snow began on 1/3/16. 

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My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad.

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1 minute ago, MR.SNOWMIZER said:

Yes I can remember many many arctic air on shore flow deals that people in the cascade foothills get slammed and us over here on kitsap in the rain shadow get nothing.  ZERO.

Yep, definitely seems more common than not, though you guys are in a similar position. You guys get tons of snow when no one else in the entire region outside of the mountains does. 

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Just now, SouthHillFrosty said:

Going to be tough. My street accumulation is actually starting to melt. Only 32 degrees 

The majority of our snow the past few days has been 32-34 degrees and mostly only sticking on elevated surfaces and not so much on the roads. Only time it really accumulated on the roads was briefly during some heavy snow this morning when it was 31. 

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The GFS shows precip picking up substantially for the East Puget Sound Lowlands a bit later in the evening.  Still some potential.

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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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4 minutes ago, KingstonWX said:

People who live in your area can't complain about not getting snow. There's like 57,945 examples of times when you got snow measured in feet when the people closer to the sound had to deal with cold rain. Those are the rules, I don't make them.

Thanks for putting me in my place.  I truly am a disgrace to the human race.  I guess I have forgotten those times I have measured my snow in feet.  Thanks for the reminder, I’ll be a better person for it.

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28 minutes ago, Perturbed Member said:

Any thoughts on this not so believable looking mechanism driving the precip on Sunday? The low is far away and looks fairly anemic. Seems a bit hard to believe you can get a widespread area of 0.4+ in QPF seemingly out of nothing.

From a distance, the circulation is similar to a summertime thunderstorm pattern with quite a bit of deep divergence, slowly lowering heights and the weak frontogenesis near the gorge.  I don’t think the low position is a big factor.

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My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad.

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58 minutes ago, HoodCanalBridge said:

It's interesting.  We had snow this morning at work - in Kingston - and no snow at home.   But these hood canal events seem to be favorable for my neighborhood.   I grew up and bought my first house in Kingston, and the microclimates just in North Kitsap are crazy!

Include Central Kitsap in there.  Silverdale to Seabeck is less than 8  miles.  You can go from a mild beach to a foot of snow in those 8 miles.  Then there is @MR.SNOWMIZER's neighborhood. Snowmageddon.  Kitsap is super varied.  I one time drove less than a mile on HWY 3 coming up from the auto center and the temp dropped 10 degrees and the rain changed to full snow.  

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2 minutes ago, Front Ranger said:

Not much. It's 18/12 currently in Pasco.

It's trying, but the 2016 cold pool got very well rooted and firmly established throughout the entire Basin rather than just the northern half. Pasco was 22/12 on 1/2/2016, Pendleton was 21/17, and The Dalles was 27/24.

Granted, the WA stuff will bleed south and westwards over the next 36 hours so I do think it should be sufficient by Sunday morning to feed the Portland area with appropriately deep outflow.

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2 minutes ago, Randyc321 said:

Include Central Kitsap in there.  Silverdale to Seabeck is less than 8  miles.  You can go from a mild beach to a foot of snow in those 8 miles.  Then there is @MR.SNOWMIZER's neighborhood. Snowmageddon.  Kitsap is super varied.  I one time drove less than a mile on HWY 3 coming up from the auto center and the temp dropped 10 degrees and the rain changed to full snow.  

Tbh, that's just part of the fun. I love it.

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Just now, BLI snowman said:

It's trying, but the 2016 cold pool got very well rooted and firmly established throughout the entire Basin rather than just the northern half. Pasco was 22/12 on 1/2/2016, Pendleton was 21/17, and The Dalles was 27/24.

Granted, the WA stuff will bleed south and westwards over the next 36 hours so I do think it should be sufficient by Sunday morning to feed the Portland area with appropriately deep outflow.

More importantly, the cold pool in the valley itself was very well established. 

My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad.

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3 minutes ago, KingstonWX said:

Yep, definitely seems more common than not, though you guys are in a similar position. You guys get tons of snow when no one else in the entire region outside of the mountains does. 

The thing that sucks out here is a bunch of our snow ends with rain. I wish we got more going into cold air. That's why this is a special event because even though we don't have arctic air we are not going into a warm wet pattern. We will have snow on the ground maybe till Christmas now. 

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We come from the land of the ice and snow.

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2 minutes ago, BLI snowman said:

It's trying, but the 2016 cold pool got very well rooted and firmly established throughout the entire Basin rather than just the northern half. Pasco was 22/12 on 1/2/2016, Pendleton was 21/17, and The Dalles was 27/24.

Granted, the WA stuff will bleed south and westwards over the next 36 hours so I do think it should be sufficient by Sunday morning to feed the Portland area with appropriately deep outflow.

Yeah, temps tomorrow in the basin should be telling.

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A forum for the end of the world.

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Just now, SnowWillarrive said:

Well last Christmas season we had probably 20 inches over the course of a week. I’m not exactly sure what our seasonal average is. We can do pretty decent though at times. 

How much did you have in February 2019?

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**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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