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PNW December 2022, winter might be coming; but mostly canceled.


The Blob

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2 minutes ago, Front Ranger said:

Ok 🙂

May not, but I bet the forecast for 1/3/16 didn't show that either.

Temps were absolutely not in question with that event. It was much more about precip type based on the approaching warm layer behind the shortwave.

My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad.

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00z IBM GRAF is interesting.

Good news is the GRAF agrees with GFS/GEM/NAM/RGEM on precip amounts. Shows 0.37 in for PDX on Sunday. 

It is a bit warmer than the Euro and GFS. 37F with a DP of 23F before the precip arrives. East winds gusting 25-30 mph. It only shows ~1 inch for PDX because the surface temps never drop below 34F. A bit surprising since there really isn't any WAA with this setup and it isn't clear how the surface temp will barely budge given the solid east winds are maintained the entire time. 

Even if PDX ends up at 34F and wet snow the whole time, I suspect at least some parts of the PDX metro will probably hit 32F in this scenario. 

GRAF_00z_Text_PDX.jpg

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9 minutes ago, TacomaWx said:

This has been really fun to track. Had no high expectations for this going in and still don’t…but all the uncertainty and microclimates are all in play. Very cool night on the forum to see all these places snowing or changing over in this very marginal event. 

Here's hoping to actually see it next time instead of just tracking it 😅

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"Let's mosey!"

 

--Cloud Strife

 

------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 

Top 5 Snow Events (post 2014):

 

(1. January 10th, 2017: 18.5 in.

(2. February 6th, 2014: 7.5 inches

(3. February 20th, 2018: 5.0 inches

(4. February 21st, 2018: 4.0 inches

(5. December 14th, 2016: 3.5 inches

 

Honourable Mentions: December 7th, 2018, February 9th, 2019.

 

Total since joining the Weather Forums: 3"

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3 minutes ago, MR.SNOWMIZER said:

The thing that sucks out here is a bunch of our snow ends with rain. I wish we got more going into cold air. That's why this is a special event because even though we don't have arctic air we are not going into a warm wet pattern. We will have snow on the ground maybe till Christmas now. 

How do you normally do going into Arctic events. It seems like your area has a lot of similar dynamics to East Vancouver Island. The Shawnigan - Parksville almost always gets snow going into an Arctic event.

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Its 37 in North Bend right now and it looks like there is liquid precip at the Snoqualmie Ridge exit.    Nothing falling here.   Not sure what is happening with the east wind... but North Bend was the coldest spot in the lowlands on Tuesday night and is one of the warmer spots tonight.   I think its precip intensity dependent to the west.   

 

090vc02567 (1).jpg

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**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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1 minute ago, TT-SEA said:

Its 37 in North Bend right now and it looks like there is liquid precip at the Snoqualmie Ridge exit.    Nothing falling here.   Not sure what is happening with the east wind... but North Bend was the coldest spot in the lowlands on Tuesday night and is one of the warmer spots tonight.   I think its precip intensity dependent to the west.   

 

090vc02567 (1).jpg

That is shocking to me. 

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6 minutes ago, Front Ranger said:

With deep offshore flow, I'm not sure how much that matters?

Call me old fashioned, but I always feel a tad better about frozen precipitation chances when temperatures are well below freezing.

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My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad.

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1 minute ago, bainbridgekid said:

Dumping and roads went from wet to white in 10 minutes here. Still have 4” on the ground too so it’s been a really snowy feeling week.

 

8663AE34-0584-47B3-A3FA-519F214B943A.jpeg

Wow!    Very cool.

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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3 minutes ago, bainbridgekid said:

Dumping and roads went from wet to white in 10 minutes here. Still have 4” on the ground too so it’s been a really snowy feeling week.

 

8663AE34-0584-47B3-A3FA-519F214B943A.jpeg

It's amazing how different it has been up here. The days have been sunny and dry with just some frost on the ground. I went up into the Chuckanuts today and it took until about 1,200' when I started seeing snow. At the top there was a little more than a dusting and considering there's snow up there for a majority of the winter I was not particularly impressed.

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Home Wx Station Stats (Since January 2008):

Max Temp: 96.3F (2009)   Min Temp: 2.0F (2008)   Max Wind Gust: 45 mph (2018, 2021)   Wettest Day: 2.34 (11/4/22)   Avg Yearly Precip: 37"   10yr Avg Snow: 8.0"

Snowfall Totals

'08-09: 30" | '09-10: 0.5" | '10-11: 21" | '11-12: 9.5" | '12-13: 0.2" | '13-14: 6.2" | '14-15: 0.0" | '15-16: 0.25"| '16-17: 8.0" | '17-18: 0.9"| '18-19: 11.5" | '19-20: 11" | '20-21: 10.5" | '21-22: 21.75" | '22-23: 10.0" 

2023-24: 7.0" (1/17: 3", 1/18: 1.5", 2/26: 0.5", 3/4: 2.0", Flakes: 1/11, 1/16)

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15 minutes ago, VancouverIslandSouth said:

How do you normally do going into Arctic events. It seems like your area has a lot of similar dynamics to East Vancouver Island. The Shawnigan - Parksville almost always gets snow going into an Arctic event.

If there is a low sliding down the coast we do good, November 2010 good example.  If it's a backdoor blast we do not do well with those normally.  Depending on low placement we can also miss out with onshore polor flow because of the Olympics.  

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We come from the land of the ice and snow.

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2 minutes ago, Front Ranger said:

Let's see how things look in 24 hours.

If The Dalles is still in the mid 30s, you may be in trouble.

They really need to see the ECMWF show precip over Portland.  

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**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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5 minutes ago, MR.SNOWMIZER said:

If there is a low sliding down the coast we do good, November 2010 good example.  If it's a backdoor blast we do not do well with those normally.  Depending on low placement we can also miss out with onshore polor flow because of the Olympics.  

I'm not sure anywhere north of Oregon does well in backdoor blasts. Onshore flow snowfalls are definitely more of a thing on west-facing slopes.

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Rough illustration of where snow is falling and where it’s been more of a mix based on mPING reports. Pretty similar dividing line to Tuesday night.

Closing in on an inch here since it started sticking at 9:00.

 

76934E78-91C1-410A-A764-B84D8E7F1D3C.jpeg

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Everett Snowfall (510 feet elevation)

Snow since February 2019: 91"

2023-24: 6"

2022-23: 17.5"

2021-22: 17.75"

2020-21: 14.5”

2019-20: 10.5"

2018-19: 24.75"

 

 

 

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Currently 33 with snow coming down at a decent rate. Just looked out the window to see it finally snowing!

2023 - 2024 Cold Season Stats

Total Snowfall - 0.75”

Max Snow Depth - 0.5”

Coldest High Temp - 21 (Jan 13)

Coldest Low Temp - 9 (Jan 13)

Number of Freezes - 48

Sub-40 highs - 12

Highs 32 or lower - 3

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