PNW December 2022, winter might be coming; but mostly canceled.

[Ice_is_Everywhere]

The back edge of the precipitation is now passing Centralia-Chehalis, per radar.

[SouthHillFrosty]

5 minutes ago, TacomaWx said:

Very weird it switched from heavy snow to rain then back to heavy snow in about 90 seconds. In the last hour it’s been dumping snow but only added up to 0.1”  new accumulation since midnight. 

Probably some melting? 

[MossMan]

7 minutes ago, MR.SNOWMIZER said:

Such a strange week, normally we have similar amounts. 

Yeah definitely different so far this year, I’m just thankful for what I have gotten since Skagit and Winterdog have not been so lucky unfortunately. Really coming down at the moment. Temp stuck at 33.2 but it’s not preventing the snow from adding up. 

[BurienSnowGlobe]

What was it that a few people posted the system will move back west or something? Any chance it just stalls over the central sound in some kind of convergence? Don’t totally understand what people were saying

[Ice_is_Everywhere]

Almost all rain now, either the freezing or normal type.

[SouthHillFrosty]

2 minutes ago, BurienSnowGlobe said:

What was it that a few people posted the system will move back west or something? Any chance it just stalls over the central sound in some kind of convergence? Don’t totally understand what people were saying

They system was moving west towards the puget sound and then quickly retreating offshore back towards the ocean. This is why the foothills were not favored. Favored locations were more west and the hood cancel. Also there was external factors like the east wind, etc. 

[joelgombiner]

Evolution of the storm since 10 AM on Thursday 12/1. The final image is from 12:30 AM (30 minutes ago). 

[SouthHillFrosty]

2 minutes ago, Ice_is_Everywhere said:

Almost all rain now, either the freezing or normal type.

How much u get?

[SouthHillFrosty]

Wow just turned to a rain snow mix also at  450 feet in Kentish area. Haven’t had rain since 5pm

[Gradient Keeper]

00z EPS shows the 00z ECMWF with that nasty ridge and mild SWLY flow Day 8.5-10 was a huge outlier. 12z did the same. Who wants a barfy warm bunch of rain in December? Not me.

[Skier B]

Heavy wet snow all evening with 1.5" so far.  A little extra elevation was key to this working out tonight.

[Ice_is_Everywhere]

2 minutes ago, SouthHillFrosty said:

How much u get?

Maybe 1, 1.5 inches. A lot of it melted after hitting surfaces. I’m satisfied.

[Cold Snap]

Currently 33 and dumping snow. Tonight I feel like definitely over performed in my location. Snow looks to continue through at least 3am and I’ve probably gotten close to an inch so far and everything including the roads is white again.

[Ice_is_Everywhere]

Upper atmosphere must be warming up.

[joelgombiner]

 

Radar lighting up over Seattle metro area, particularly over I-5 and I-405 

[SouthHillFrosty]

I can’t even hate on the NWS. Nobody saw this coming. Not even the GFS

[SouthHillFrosty]

Back to snow fyi 

[snow_wizard]

The snow is surprisingly wet considering the temp, but it's coming down hard and I have a little over an inch of new tonight.

[snow_wizard]

2 minutes ago, SouthHillFrosty said:

I can’t even hate on the NWS. Nobody saw this coming. Not even the GFS

The GFS was getting there on the 0z run.  The ICON actually did an excellent job of showing I would have snow here.  That model doesn't hand out snow easily.

[WeatheringLoyalHeights]

Dumping snow a few minutes ago. Feel like we are at the point where the remnant bald slushy spots on the pavement will start filling in if it keeps up. Up to about 1.5” on non-pavement. A little discouraged by some of the spots switching back to rain, esp since they are higher elevation.

[Gradient Keeper]

Pressure Gradients - UPDATE

Easterly gradients are tightening up quite a bit now. I just had my first "noisy" gust near west Gresham. Here we go!
 

1 AM

[Gorge/Gap Gradients]
PDX-DLS: -7.7mb
TTD-DLS: -7.1mb

[Cross Cascade Gradients]
PDX-YKM: -9.9mb
PDX-MWH: -10.8mb
PDX-GEG: -10.6mb
OTH-GEG: -12.9mb

*Legend: PDX = Portland, DLS = The Dalles, TTD = Troutdale, YKM = Yakima, MWH = Moses Lake, GEG = Spokane, OTH = North Bend

A -Negative value indicates easterly/northerly flow
A +Positive value indicates westerly/onshore flow

[BurienSnowGlobe]

Heavy snow to rain to heavy snow to rain right now

[HuskyMaestro]

Switched to all rain here The optimist in me says December is going to be full of snow chances with the promising colder trends but I remember I live in Fife. 

[Gradient Keeper]

11 minutes ago, Ice_is_Everywhere said:

Upper atmosphere must be warming up.

Yes, unfortunately.

Here are the current 925mb temps. 0c line bulging northward just into the Tacoma area.

Here is the forecast in 4 hours. Now it's lifting northward up through Seattle.

[WeatherGeek2022]

2 minutes ago, HuskyMaestro said:

Switched to all rain here The optimist in me says December is going to be full of snow chances with the promising colder trends but I remember I live in Fife. 

Yeah it's amazing the difference from south hill to fife/parkland/UP.

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

8 inches today 13 total. Lots of compacting of the snow. 

[Gradient Keeper]

2 minutes ago, MR.SNOWMIZER said:

8 inches today 13 total. Lots of compacting of the snow. 

Wow! That is unreal!

[RCola]

Belltown is ground zero right now. Pucking snow. Rain is totally gone, and we've picked up a good 3/4" on cars and streets are whitening up.

[HuskyMaestro]

3 minutes ago, WeatherGeek2022 said:

Yeah it's amazing the difference from south hill to fife/parkland/UP.

I hate Fife so much man Granted I’m moving out of the fam’s home when I graduate in a year or so but still. For here, it doesn’t really matter when ensembles say “below average temps”, Fife/Puyallup always needs an actual major cold snap to produce anything. 2008 and 2019 were beyond magical. 

[ChrisEl Elyon]

7 minutes ago, RCola said:

Belltown is ground zero right now. Pucking snow. Rain is totally gone, and we've picked up a good 3/4" on cars and streets are whitening up.

Here in Belltown Seattle myself off 1st and Vine i don't see much accumulation from my apartment but definitely an inch up hill at Queen Anne. Snowing real hard currently. 

[WeatheringLoyalHeights]

Just incredible!

 

 

[Perturbed Member]

06z NAM and RGEM were big step backs in terms of QPF for Sunday. Quite a crazy run to run fluctuation for something so short term. 

The 06z GFS is just doubling down on the same solution. Pretty ridiculous and very unlikely to verify. The run to run consistency of insisting on a bullseye over PDX is remarkable however. 

For something that is 30 hours out, there is a ton of uncertainty in this forecast.

[RCola]

5 minutes ago, ChrisAmunRA said:

Here in Belltown Seattle myself off 1st and Vine i don't see much accumulation from my apartment but definitely an inch up hill at Queen Anne. Snowing real hard currently. 

Nice, I'm on the other side of the needle from you. I'm just using the amount of snow on parked cars for reference. On the actual street, it's just a dusting, although probably a bit more now with the heavy snow we have going.

[ChrisEl Elyon]

1 minute ago, RCola said:

Nice, I'm on the other side of the needle from you. I'm just using the amount of snow on parked cars for reference. On the actual street, it's just a dusting, although probably a bit more now with the heavy snow we have going.

About 2 inches in Capitol Hill and an inch Beacon Hill, down by water so far noting but starting to whiten up.

[Requiem]

8 minutes ago, Perturbed Member said:

06z NAM and RGEM were big step backs in terms of QPF for Sunday. Quite a crazy run to run fluctuation for something so short term. 

The 06z GFS is just doubling down on the same solution. Pretty ridiculous and very unlikely to verify. The run to run consistency of insisting on a bullseye over PDX is remarkable however. 

For something that is 30 hours out, there is a ton of uncertainty in this forecast.

06Z NAM 3K to be fair actually was a bit improved in showing consistent precip over the metro area-- but yeah, RGEM was a step back. To be fair, things haven't been very consistent w that model-- it's surprising how insistent the GFS is on this solution.

[RCola]

1 minute ago, ChrisAmunRA said:

About 2 inches in Capitol Hill and an inch Beacon Hill, down by water so far noting but starting to whiten up.

Makes sense with elevation. I don't envy folks trying to park up any hills in Seattle tonight. 

[SouthHillFrosty]

Switching between sleet and snow 

[Perturbed Member]

2 minutes ago, Requiem said:

06Z NAM 3K to be fair actually was a bit improved in showing consistent precip over the metro area-- but yeah, RGEM was a step back. To be fair, things haven't been very consistent w that model-- it's surprising how insistent the GFS is on this solution.

That's fair, I did notice the 3km was better.

The GFS is pretty much calling for 1/10/17 version 2. This is the new upgraded GFS I believe. It will either look like a genius or a total joke after this. 

[snow_wizard]

1 minute ago, SouthHillFrosty said:

Switching between sleet and snow 

Nothing but snow here and just had a real blast of it come through.  Really white out there now.

[TT-SEA]

Feel asleep... my UW son called me and woke me up to ask about the snow.    I see the burst between 1-2 is happening in Seattle just like the ECMWF showed.