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PNW December 2022, winter might be coming; but mostly canceled.


The Blob

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Good news. Low level cold is now intensifying. I had bumped back up to 40.5, and earlier the winds were keeping my temperature steady, but the past 45 minutes the winds have become very gusty and temps/dewpoints are nose diving now 37.5, dewpoint 25.9. The first signs of that low level arctic air in the Columbia Basin surging into the Gorge and east of I-205.

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Looks like it won't be quite cold enough up here. Temperature stalled out at 34F and more rain starting to mix in with the snow. No accumulation, but it was kind of fun to watch the waves of rain and snow for a couple hours.

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Home Wx Station Stats (Since January 2008):

Max Temp: 96.3F (2009)   Min Temp: 2.0F (2008)   Max Wind Gust: 45 mph (2018, 2021)   Wettest Day: 2.34 (11/4/22)   Avg Yearly Precip: 37"   10yr Avg Snow: 8.0"

Snowfall Totals

'08-09: 30" | '09-10: 0.5" | '10-11: 21" | '11-12: 9.5" | '12-13: 0.2" | '13-14: 6.2" | '14-15: 0.0" | '15-16: 0.25"| '16-17: 8.0" | '17-18: 0.9"| '18-19: 11.5" | '19-20: 11" | '20-21: 10.5" | '21-22: 21.75" | '22-23: 10.0" 

2023-24: 7.0" (1/17: 3", 1/18: 1.5", 2/26: 0.5", 3/4: 2.0", Flakes: 1/11, 1/16)

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My son also told me it was dumping snow here at home... based on the radar.    Which is not true.   Just flurries here and no accumulation.  The ECMWF nailed the overall coverage very well.

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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1 minute ago, Gradient Keeper said:

Night Shift

6z GFS through Day 6

floop-gfs-2022120306.500h_anom_na.gif

I was rudely awaken and feel like crap.   No idea how you do this every night!   I need to go back to sleep.   😀

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**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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Lots of branches snapping. Roommate and I saw plenty falling on our walk back home. We actually ended up helping clear the road of a big branch for a car on the side street since they couldn't get past. Kind of hairy.

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Weather stats for MBY

Snowfall:

-Total snowfall since joining: 50.25"

-2018-19: 21"

-2019-20: 2.5"

-2020-21: 13"

-2021-22: 8.75"

-2022-23: 5.75"

-2023-24*: 0.25"

-Most recent snowfall: 0.25”; January 17th, 2024

-Largest snowfall (single storm): 8.5"; February 12-13, 2021

-Largest snow depth: 14"; 1:30am February 12th, 2019

Temperatures:

-Warmest: 109F; June 28th, 2021

-Coldest: 13F; December 27th, 2021

-Phreeze Count 2023-24: 31

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Just now, Meatyorologist said:

Lots of branches snapping. Roommate and I saw plenty falling on our walk back home. We actually ended up helping clear the road of a big branch for a car on the side street since they couldn't get past. Kind of hairy.

The only drawback to heavy, wet snow especially with calm conditions. It's just solid cake cementing on everything. Where I live 95% of the time its a dry powder.

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Just now, Gradient Keeper said:

The only drawback to heavy, wet snow especially with calm conditions. It's just solid cake cementing on everything. Where I live 95% of the time its a dry powder.

The way I see it, it's a part of the deal. Culling the weak branches that would be much more dangerous flying around as unpredictable projectiles during a windstorm anyways.

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Weather stats for MBY

Snowfall:

-Total snowfall since joining: 50.25"

-2018-19: 21"

-2019-20: 2.5"

-2020-21: 13"

-2021-22: 8.75"

-2022-23: 5.75"

-2023-24*: 0.25"

-Most recent snowfall: 0.25”; January 17th, 2024

-Largest snowfall (single storm): 8.5"; February 12-13, 2021

-Largest snow depth: 14"; 1:30am February 12th, 2019

Temperatures:

-Warmest: 109F; June 28th, 2021

-Coldest: 13F; December 27th, 2021

-Phreeze Count 2023-24: 31

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39 minutes ago, Perturbed Member said:

06z NAM and RGEM were big step backs in terms of QPF for Sunday. Quite a crazy run to run fluctuation for something so short term. 

The 06z GFS is just doubling down on the same solution. Pretty ridiculous and very unlikely to verify. The run to run consistency of insisting on a bullseye over PDX is remarkable however. 

For something that is 30 hours out, there is a ton of uncertainty in this forecast.

sn10_024h.us_nw.png

qpf_048h.us_nw.png

I'll take the 11.4in.

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5 minutes ago, SouthHillFrosty said:

Just shoveled this entire corner and driveway for my finance since she works the morning shift. I am tired. 

96A61A63-0052-49CA-B026-A164FA1D3F99.jpeg

Nicely done. Back during the massive December 2008 snowpocalypse on Christmas Eve I shoveled the driveway and a large path all the way to the end of our cul-de-sac something like 250 feet in hopes our family friends could make it for our annual Christmas Eve get-together and dinner. After hours of shoveling of snow just over 2 feet in depth with drifts even higher they called and couldn't make it. Lol That SUCKED.

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42 minutes ago, Perturbed Member said:

06z NAM and RGEM were big step backs in terms of QPF for Sunday. Quite a crazy run to run fluctuation for something so short term. 

The 06z GFS is just doubling down on the same solution. Pretty ridiculous and very unlikely to verify. The run to run consistency of insisting on a bullseye over PDX is remarkable however. 

For something that is 30 hours out, there is a ton of uncertainty in this forecast.

sn10_024h.us_nw.png

qpf_048h.us_nw.png

I would say no, but who knows. As you said the GFS has been extremely persistent on this deformation band solution.

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10 minutes ago, Gradient Keeper said:

GEFS continues to trend snowier for Sunday! Hmmm....

Snowfall totals ending 4 AM Monday (4-run trend)

trend-gefsens-2022120306-f054.sn10_acc-mean-imp.us_nw.gif

Still awake. 

And wow!!   The 06Z GFS would be amazing for Portland.

 

gfs-deterministic-washington-snow_24hr_kuchera-0241600.png

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**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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I really really really hope this works out for Portland! Y'all deserve something out of this. Already got our fix of heavy, wet accumulating snow, around 1.5" here tonight.

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Weather stats for MBY

Snowfall:

-Total snowfall since joining: 50.25"

-2018-19: 21"

-2019-20: 2.5"

-2020-21: 13"

-2021-22: 8.75"

-2022-23: 5.75"

-2023-24*: 0.25"

-Most recent snowfall: 0.25”; January 17th, 2024

-Largest snowfall (single storm): 8.5"; February 12-13, 2021

-Largest snow depth: 14"; 1:30am February 12th, 2019

Temperatures:

-Warmest: 109F; June 28th, 2021

-Coldest: 13F; December 27th, 2021

-Phreeze Count 2023-24: 31

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Looks like precip will start out as snow throughout the Willamette Valley Sunday morning. @TigerWoodsLibido, I'm looking at you! Hope you get some snow again!

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Weather stats for MBY

Snowfall:

-Total snowfall since joining: 50.25"

-2018-19: 21"

-2019-20: 2.5"

-2020-21: 13"

-2021-22: 8.75"

-2022-23: 5.75"

-2023-24*: 0.25"

-Most recent snowfall: 0.25”; January 17th, 2024

-Largest snowfall (single storm): 8.5"; February 12-13, 2021

-Largest snow depth: 14"; 1:30am February 12th, 2019

Temperatures:

-Warmest: 109F; June 28th, 2021

-Coldest: 13F; December 27th, 2021

-Phreeze Count 2023-24: 31

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image.png

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Weather stats for MBY

Snowfall:

-Total snowfall since joining: 50.25"

-2018-19: 21"

-2019-20: 2.5"

-2020-21: 13"

-2021-22: 8.75"

-2022-23: 5.75"

-2023-24*: 0.25"

-Most recent snowfall: 0.25”; January 17th, 2024

-Largest snowfall (single storm): 8.5"; February 12-13, 2021

-Largest snow depth: 14"; 1:30am February 12th, 2019

Temperatures:

-Warmest: 109F; June 28th, 2021

-Coldest: 13F; December 27th, 2021

-Phreeze Count 2023-24: 31

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1 minute ago, Meatyorologist said:

I really really really hope this works out for Portland! Y'all deserve something out of this. Already got our fix of heavy, wet accumulating snow, around 1.5" here tonight.

It needs to happen Sunday, I want out of work.

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Up to 33F as the last heavy band lifts through. Behind this precip ends and temps warm further. I'll do one last measurement soon.

Weather stats for MBY

Snowfall:

-Total snowfall since joining: 50.25"

-2018-19: 21"

-2019-20: 2.5"

-2020-21: 13"

-2021-22: 8.75"

-2022-23: 5.75"

-2023-24*: 0.25"

-Most recent snowfall: 0.25”; January 17th, 2024

-Largest snowfall (single storm): 8.5"; February 12-13, 2021

-Largest snow depth: 14"; 1:30am February 12th, 2019

Temperatures:

-Warmest: 109F; June 28th, 2021

-Coldest: 13F; December 27th, 2021

-Phreeze Count 2023-24: 31

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Actually starting to mix with rain now. Probably isothermic just above freezing going from the surface up to ~2-3k feet.

1.5" storm total, 2" total on the day. 2.75" on the season. On Dec 3rd!

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Weather stats for MBY

Snowfall:

-Total snowfall since joining: 50.25"

-2018-19: 21"

-2019-20: 2.5"

-2020-21: 13"

-2021-22: 8.75"

-2022-23: 5.75"

-2023-24*: 0.25"

-Most recent snowfall: 0.25”; January 17th, 2024

-Largest snowfall (single storm): 8.5"; February 12-13, 2021

-Largest snow depth: 14"; 1:30am February 12th, 2019

Temperatures:

-Warmest: 109F; June 28th, 2021

-Coldest: 13F; December 27th, 2021

-Phreeze Count 2023-24: 31

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Already more snow and cold than the entirety of winter 2019-20

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Weather stats for MBY

Snowfall:

-Total snowfall since joining: 50.25"

-2018-19: 21"

-2019-20: 2.5"

-2020-21: 13"

-2021-22: 8.75"

-2022-23: 5.75"

-2023-24*: 0.25"

-Most recent snowfall: 0.25”; January 17th, 2024

-Largest snowfall (single storm): 8.5"; February 12-13, 2021

-Largest snow depth: 14"; 1:30am February 12th, 2019

Temperatures:

-Warmest: 109F; June 28th, 2021

-Coldest: 13F; December 27th, 2021

-Phreeze Count 2023-24: 31

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Wow! Just woke up and we had no accumulation overnight here in downtown Everett at 170’. Not what I was expecting but oh well. About to drive to work in Mill Creek close to 500’ so I’m sure it’s going to look a lot different.

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(Previous name: MillCreekMike)

Everett, WA (elev. 180’)

2023-2024 Snowfall:

1/11: Tr.

1/18: Tr.

Go M’s

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