PNW December 2022, winter might be coming; but mostly canceled.

[SouthHillFrosty]

Seahawks game looks snowy next Sunday… it has been pretty consistent about it also 

[Ice_is_Everywhere]

36 with a 32 dewpoint here.

[Gradient Keeper]

I see a few possible lowland snow/ice opportunities, especially the Gorge. Lows diving to our south, jet suppression, and east winds.

[SouthHillFrosty]

[Perturbed Member]

Pretty decent consensus here between the 00z GFS, GEM, NAM,RGEM and even 18z ECMWF.  I think I'll go 0-2 inches for PDX metro for tomorrow. I suspect most places will be in the trace-1 inch range. Hopefully we will be surprised...the good kind of surprises. 

 

[BLI snowman]

11 minutes ago, DecimalCat said:

If there was to be an impromptu forum Miss Misery contest judging the most sad-sack location over the past five years for snow, I would think South Metro PDX members might be frontrunners for the crown, which in this case would take the form of a vinyl yellow Sou’Wester to deflect the pissing, cold rains..  Gladstone, lower Oregon City, Wilsonville—while not completely snow-deprived—have had a tough five year stretch.  Perhaps that’s why it’s a little tough to stomach the incessant whining coming from the S. Valley over the years, which has had some impressively fun events during this same stretch.  One could point to Jan. 2017 as a counterpoint but as Prairiedog has outlined in the past that was an exceedingly frustrating event in S.Metro with hours of 34 degree driving rains before a charity turnover to snow to illustrate painfully what could have been.  Feb.21 we won the ice battle and were rewarded with once in a lifetime power outages.  The last time I can remember getting over on other metro locations was maybe the first December event in 2008 (the 13th perhaps) where our 3-4 inches felt like a win. It’s an increasingly difficult place to achieve snow success and outflow events aren’t saving us like they used to.  But that’s likely a matter of unfavorable low placements. It’s a unique and interesting location for its snow impotence. That’s why an event like tomorrow barely warrants a second look here.  But I’m willing to admit that proximity to greatness might be breeding unjustified jealousy (and whining).

For people here that are smarter than me (most) do you have any thoughts about this area’s snow mitigating factors? 

February 2021 was definitely a tough break with where the 0c line set up at 850mb, but otherwise it feels like the south metro has been reasonably comparable to my area since 2018 or so. We were thoroughly hosed here in February 2019 and had fairly so-so results last December. How much did you guys get on April 11?

[Gradient Keeper]

Day 9'er Oh look, another cold, deep trough.

[Snownerd3000]

12 minutes ago, MR.SNOWMIZER said:

There was a bunch of situations like shown Wednesday night here in 2007. Forecast was not talking much about snow and we got one wet snow event after another. 

I mentioned 07 earlier. i recall a long stretch that winter with flirting with low snow levels but no big long arctic outbreak. 

[thickhog]

16 minutes ago, DecimalCat said:

If there was to be an impromptu forum Miss Misery contest judging the most sad-sack location over the past five years for snow, I would think South Metro PDX members might be frontrunners for the crown, which in this case would take the form of a vinyl yellow Sou’Wester to deflect the pissing, cold rains..  Gladstone, lower Oregon City, Wilsonville—while not completely snow-deprived—have had a tough five year stretch.  Perhaps that’s why it’s a little tough to stomach the incessant whining coming from the S. Valley over the years, which has had some impressively fun events during this same stretch.  One could point to Jan. 2017 as a counterpoint but as Prairiedog has outlined in the past that was an exceedingly frustrating event in S.Metro with hours of 34 degree driving rains before a charity turnover to snow to illustrate painfully what could have been.  Feb.21 we won the ice battle and were rewarded with once in a lifetime power outages.  The last time I can remember getting over on other metro locations was maybe the first December event in 2008 (the 13th perhaps) where our 3-4 inches felt like a win. It’s an increasingly difficult place to achieve snow success and outflow events aren’t saving us like they used to.  But that’s likely a matter of unfavorable low placements. It’s a unique and interesting location for its snow impotence. That’s why an event like tomorrow barely warrants a second look here.  But I’m willing to admit that proximity to greatness might be breeding unjustified jealousy (and whining).

For people here that are smarter than me (most) do you have any thoughts about this area’s snow mitigating factors? 

Sending you a hug, brother (the manly kind where you pat the back twice).

[Doinko]

Just now, BLI snowman said:

February 2021 was definitely a tough break with where the 0c line set up at 850mb, but otherwise it feels like the south metro has been reasonably comparable to my area since 2018 or so. We were thoroughly hosed here in February 2019 and had fairly so-so results last December. How much did you guys get on April 11?

I would probably be very annoyed living in the south metro. We at least got 4-5" of snow in Feb 2021. Not that great in the past few winters but then we did great in 2016/17. We sometimes get hosed but it's not like the South metro which seems like they lose out every time.

[DeepFriedEgg]

5 minutes ago, Gradient Keeper said:

I see a few possible lowland snow/ice opportunities, especially the Gorge. Lows diving to our south, jet suppression, and east winds.

Really a shame that we couldn't have built a colder cold pool but oh well...

[Blizzard777]

9 minutes ago, RentonHillTC said:

Found one of these in our pool in the house I lived in senior year in Tempe. Thought it was long dead so I scooped it out with my hands and then when I looked a few minutes later it was gone

[Snownerd3000]

7 minutes ago, SouthHillFrosty said:

Seahawks game looks snowy next Sunday… it has been pretty consistent about it also 

Could be! Would be fun to see the 15th in play too, 9ers game.

[Gradient Keeper]

Day 10

[Hyperbolic Trendz]

11 minutes ago, Deweydog said:

Surface temperatures and daylight.

I requested only people smarter than me.  … just kidding—you’re a genius with a spotless record of betting “bravely” on climo to prevail always and forever.

[Gradient Keeper]

00z GFS 10 Day Rainfall, Snowfall totals

[Perturbed Member]

This is encouraging to see. The 00z GRAF came in way snowier than any of the previous runs. I don't think any previous run even showed 1.0 inch of snow or .38 in QPF for PDX.

The new 00z GRAF pulled a GFS/GEM and is now going for 1.05 in QPF and 4.5 in of snow. 

The fact that the GFS, GEM and GRAF have all had a run today with 0.8-1.20 in QPF in PDX tomorrow suggests this setup is more dynamic and explosive than it may initially seem. 

[BLI snowman]

3 minutes ago, Doinko said:

I would probably be very annoyed living in the south metro. We at least got 4-5" of snow in Feb 2021. Not that great in the past few winters but then we did great in 2016/17. We sometimes get hosed but it's not like the South metro which seems like they lose out every time.

It's a tough spot, since they need deeper outflow to really score and just don't get that as often as Clark/Multnomah Counties. They also tend to get the southerly winds much faster in overrunning events and tend to get shadowed about equally in onshore flow events. So it takes a really particular setup for them to win out.

Historically they can do quite well with the real arctic front ragers that smash through like February 1989 and December 1972, but we haven't been seeing that in recent years and just get the slow-bleeds pretty exclusively now.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

That Thursday/Friday period keeps

looking interesting.

[Gradient Keeper]

1 minute ago, Perturbed Member said:

This is encouraging to see. The 00z GRAF came in way snowier than any of the previous runs. I don't think any previous run even showed 1.0 inch of snow or .38 in QPF for PDX.

The new 00z GRAF pulled a GFS/GEM and is now going for 1.05 in QPF and 4.5 in of snow. 

The fact that the GFS, GEM and GRAF have all had a run today with 0.8-1.20 in QPF in PDX tomorrow suggests this setup is more dynamic and explosive than it may initially seem. 

Ya beat me to it! Yep. A significant increase. Mark utilizes the GRAF heavily too.

00z ECMWF in 1 hour 2 minutes

[Gradient Keeper]

Just now, SilverFallsAndrew said:

That Thursday/Friday period keeps

looking interesting.

Yes it does.

[BLI snowman]

3 minutes ago, Perturbed Member said:

This is encouraging to see. The 00z GRAF came in way snowier than any of the previous runs. I don't think any previous run even showed 1.0 inch of snow or .38 in QPF for PDX.

The new 00z GRAF pulled a GFS/GEM and is now going for 1.05 in QPF and 4.5 in of snow. 

The fact that the GFS, GEM and GRAF have all had a run today with 0.8-1.20 in QPF in PDX tomorrow suggests this setup is more dynamic and explosive than it may initially seem. 

Feeling pretty decent for areas with a little elevation (above 150-200') from Portland to Castle Rock. I think 2-3" is a reasonable bet for those folks.

[Doinko]

1 minute ago, BLI snowman said:

Feeling pretty decent for areas with a little elevation (above 150-200') from Portland to Castle Rock. I think 2-3" is a reasonable bet for those folks.

I'm at 250'. That would be amazing

[Doinko]

5 minutes ago, BLI snowman said:

It's a tough spot, since they need deeper outflow to really score and just don't get that as often as Clark/Multnomah Counties. They also tend to get the southerly winds much faster in overrunning events and tend to get shadowed about equally in onshore flow events. So it takes a really particular setup for them to win out.

Historically they can do quite well with the real arctic front ragers that smash through like February 1989 and December 1972, but we haven't been seeing that in recent years and just get the slow-bleeds pretty exclusively now.

Here we also get shadowed in onshore flow pretty badly but usually we make up for it in other events. 2016/2017 gave us at least 18" of snow, maybe slightly more. I guess we just benefit from being farther north and not getting the southerlies as fast

[Deweydog]

3 minutes ago, DecimalCat said:

I requested only people smarter than me.  … just kidding—you’re a genius with a spotless record of betting “bravely” on climo to prevail always and forever.

Those would be the biggest mitigating factors. Moisture availability isn’t an issue, but surface temps around the metro area will likely be in the mid-upper 30s when precip gets rolling. Plenty of wet bulb potential, but it will be mitigated somewhat by the diurnal cycle  and some of the accumulation potential as opposed to if the process took place with more favorable timing. I think an inch is a good landing spot for most in the bullseye with some bigger winners and losers. Might be kind of a protracted inch though as this is kind of a duration event. 

[Ice_is_Everywhere]

From last night.

[FroYoBro]

4 minutes ago, Deweydog said:

Those would be the biggest mitigating factors. Moisture availability isn’t an issue, but surface temps around the metro area will likely be in the mid-upper 30s when precip gets rolling. Plenty of wet bulb potential, but it will be mitigated somewhat by the diurnal cycle  and some of the accumulation potential as opposed to if the process took place with more favorable timing. I think an inch is a good landing spot for most in the bullseye with some bigger winners and losers. Might be kind of a protracted inch though as this is kind of a duration event. 

I think they were asking about the south metro in more general terms over recent years. But yeah, that’s a good explanation for tomorrow.

Edited December 4, 2022 by FroYoBro

[Deweydog]

1 minute ago, FroYoBro said:

I think they were asking about the south metro in more general terms over recent years. But yeah, that’s a good explanation for tomorrow.

Ahh, my bad.

[Hyperbolic Trendz]

13 minutes ago, BLI snowman said:

It's a tough spot, since they need deeper outflow to really score and just don't get that as often as Clark/Multnomah Counties. They also tend to get the southerly winds much faster in overrunning events and tend to get shadowed about equally in onshore flow events. So it takes a really particular setup for them to win out.

Historically they can do quite well with the real arctic front ragers that smash through like February 1989 and December 1972, but we haven't been seeing that in recent years and just get the slow-bleeds pretty exclusively now.

I always enjoy your posts’ blend of analysis and historical context.

[BLI snowman]

8 minutes ago, Doinko said:

I'm at 250'. That would be amazing

Should be a fun afternoon.

For perspective, the last time we had an earlier 2"+ event here was 11/19/2003. So it's been a long time and the season is very, very young.

[Perturbed Member]

11 minutes ago, BLI snowman said:

Feeling pretty decent for areas with a little elevation (above 150-200') from Portland to Castle Rock. I think 2-3" is a reasonable bet for those folks.

I'm at 250 ft west of HIO. Pretty close to the Coast Range. This area is absolutely trash for onshore flow but generally pretty decent for these east wind snow events. Enough east wind to get the benefits but not so dry that it eats up the moisture and sometimes we get some upslope enhancement when things are just right. Feeling pretty good about seeing at least some kind of accumulation here tomorrow. 

[SouthHillFrosty]

[Snownerd3000]

Friday the 16th looks pretty dope 

[Doinko]

8 minutes ago, BLI snowman said:

Should be a fun afternoon.

For perspective, the last time we had an earlier 2"+ event here was 11/19/2003. So it's been a long time and the season is very, very young.

Do you think the east wind downsloping off of the west hills would hurt us or not have much of an effect?

[DeepFriedEgg]

3 minutes ago, Snownerd3000 said:

Friday the 16th looks pretty dope 

Ice storm for PDX

[Snownerd3000]

Would be cool to keep the weekend trend going right through the new year. 

[BLI snowman]

4 minutes ago, Perturbed Member said:

I'm at 250 ft west of HIO. Pretty close to the Coast Range. This area is absolutely trash for onshore flow but generally pretty decent for these east wind snow events. Enough east wind to get the benefits but not so dry that it eats up the moisture and sometimes we get some upslope enhancement when things are just right. Feeling pretty good about seeing at least some kind of accumulation here tomorrow. 

Yep, feel much better about the suburbs getting enough wet bulb for the magic 32. PDX and areas near the river are gonna have a tough time. Feels a little 3/14/2020ish, with somewhat later timing in the day.

[jakerepp]

53 minutes ago, Jginmartini said:

I’ll be down end of month to bring in New Years there!  Prescott area Cant wait !

Cool little dude and crazy you saw him…just think what and inch of snow looks like to him

 

Little nerve wracking to have a 1 year old crawling around, but it was cool to see one finally. Just wish it wasn't inside the house.

[Deweydog]

28 minutes ago, Perturbed Member said:

This is encouraging to see. The 00z GRAF came in way snowier than any of the previous runs. I don't think any previous run even showed 1.0 inch of snow or .38 in QPF for PDX.

The new 00z GRAF pulled a GFS/GEM and is now going for 1.05 in QPF and 4.5 in of snow. 

The fact that the GFS, GEM and GRAF have all had a run today with 0.8-1.20 in QPF in PDX tomorrow suggests this setup is more dynamic and explosive than it may initially seem. 

Not sure how much it’ll matter, but that is likely to bust cold by 4-5 degrees at 11pm.

[BLI snowman]

4 minutes ago, Doinko said:

Do you think the east wind downsloping off of the west hills would hurt us or not have much of an effect?

Don't think the east winds are going to have a big impact on precip totals. Not enough of a gradient for a real downslope component. The low is ultimately pretty distant and weak.