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PNW December 2022, winter might be coming; but mostly canceled.


The Blob

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55 minutes ago, joelgombiner said:

Tough year for photosynthesis, with a late onset to warm spring temperatures, and a dry summer and early fall. I suspect trees hung on to their leaves longer than normal in an attempt to achieve their energy quotas for the year. 

Fascinating stuff which led me to this as I was getting a little info on 🌲 trees 

Do trees poop? Yes, in their own way 😱

Plants give it off through stomata – little tiny pores – and through root cells. And they give off extra water from respiration or guttation, secreting little drops of moisture on the tips of leaves. Some plants store waste in leaves that will fall off with the seasons and some exude saps and resins and the like
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2 hours ago, TacomaWx said:

It was a pretty solid 8 day run…but hopefully during the next round of winter weather we can manage some sub freezing highs. This event wasn’t particularly cold or in the top tier especially considering some events we’ve had in recent years…but still pretty solid. 
11/28-40/35

11/29-40/31 0.7”

11/30-41/29 1.2”

12/1-34/25 0.8”

12/2-38/24 1.2”

12/3-44/33 0.2”

12/4-39/33 1.1”

12/5-39/34

It's pretty amazing how different it can feel based on location. If this is it for the winter (not likely, but still) it will go down as the most forgettable and second or third worst winter for snowfall up here this century. The lack of snowfall, cold temperatures, and subfreezing highs would make it comparable with some of the worst Niño winters. Up here you tend to know it's a bad winter if we fail to hit the teens and my lowest temperature so far is 21F. Meanwhile, SEA has more snowfall already than 11 of the 18 winters since '04-05 and its 37F minimum high temperature is comparable to many winters in the last couple decades. So the winter could end today in the Central/South Sound and from a stats prospective it probably wouldn't look too bad.

I know it's only early December and we still have loads of time (and things look promising), but I'm really hoping we get multiple more opportunities (and based even on climo we should).

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Home Wx Station Stats (Since January 2008):

Max Temp: 96.3F (2009)   Min Temp: 2.0F (2008)   Max Wind Gust: 45 mph (2018, 2021)   Wettest Day: 2.34 (11/4/22)   Avg Yearly Precip: 37"   10yr Avg Snow: 8.0"

Snowfall Totals

'08-09: 30" | '09-10: 0.5" | '10-11: 21" | '11-12: 9.5" | '12-13: 0.2" | '13-14: 6.2" | '14-15: 0.0" | '15-16: 0.25"| '16-17: 8.0" | '17-18: 0.9"| '18-19: 11.5" | '19-20: 11" | '20-21: 10.5" | '21-22: 21.75" | '22-23: 10.0" 

2023-24: 7.0" (1/17: 3", 1/18: 1.5", 2/26: 0.5", 3/4: 2.0", Flakes: 1/11, 1/16)

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4 minutes ago, Skagit Weather said:

It's pretty amazing how different it can feel based on location. If this is it for the winter (not likely, but still) it will go down as the most forgettable and second or third worst winter for snowfall up here this century. The lack of snowfall, cold temperatures, and subfreezing highs would make it comparable with some of the worst Niño winters. Up here you tend to know it's a bad winter if we fail to hit the teens and my lowest temperature so far is 21F. Meanwhile, SEA has more snowfall already than 11 of the 18 winters since '04-05 and its 37F minimum high temperature is comparable to many winters in the last couple decades. So the winter could end today in the Central/South Sound and from a stats prospective it probably wouldn't look too bad.

I know it's only early December and we still have loads of time (and things look promising), but I'm really hoping we get multiple more opportunities (and based even on climo we should).

As I have written before: The weather that happens in your own backyard is always the most important weather.

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It's called clown range for a reason.

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28 minutes ago, Rubus Leucodermis said:

I certainly trust it more than the Goofus. As things stand, I expect rain IMBY this weekend.

Yep. Unless there’s some fresh cold air from the interior, even what the gfs is showing would typically be mostly rain for most of the lower elevations.  East island can cash in on these setups with some cold air damming and higher precip rates. 

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6 minutes ago, Rubus Leucodermis said:

As I have written before: The weather that happens in your own backyard is always the most important weather.

Yeah people get mad at me when I mention that I care most about what is falling outside my window, and even though I really like 99.9% of the forum members from any of the western states but when it comes down to it…I want the goods! A regional dump would be amazing where every single forum member gets nailed, but that is so rare that I have to root for either a northward or southward trend so my area is in the sweet spot. Guess that makes me selfish…What can I say…I am not far off from a Jim like snow obsession! 😀

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Elevation 580’ Location a few miles east of I-5 on the Snohomish Co side of the Snohomish/Skagit border. I love snow/cold AND sun/warmth! 

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Just now, MossMan said:

Yeah people get mad at me when I mention that I care most about what is falling outside my window, and even though I really like 99.9% of the forum members from any of the western states but when it comes down to it…I want the goods! A regional dump would be amazing where every single forum member gets nailed, but that is so rare that I have to root for either a northward or southward trend so my area is in the sweet spot. Guess that makes me selfish…What can I say…I am not far off from a Jim like snow obsession! 😀

It’s been a case of bad luck for Whatcom and Skagit counties so far this season. There was a storm that favoured cold air damming and upsloping against the North Shore Mountains (basically Vancouver’s own version of the Hood Canal effect, though it takes winds from a different direction to achieve it) and that is when I scored. Then came a bunch of south-based events. Whatcom and Skagit unfortunately ended up in the screw zone for them all.

I don’t expect that pattern to hold for the rest of the winter. Odds are there will be storms that favour more northerly regions in general, as is typical.

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It's called clown range for a reason.

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3 minutes ago, MR.SNOWMIZER said:

Looks almost like last friday.

ww_snow24.84.0000.gif

Looks like a dot of blue right over the family lake house…Might need to run out there as my house is in the white. 🤮

AB87D65D-2211-4FEA-8F31-66705E588AAD.jpeg

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Elevation 580’ Location a few miles east of I-5 on the Snohomish Co side of the Snohomish/Skagit border. I love snow/cold AND sun/warmth! 

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6 minutes ago, Rubus Leucodermis said:

It’s been a case of bad luck for Whatcom and Skagit counties so far this season. There was a storm that favoured cold air damming and upsloping against the North Shore Mountains (basically Vancouver’s own version of the Hood Canal effect, though it takes winds from a different direction to achieve it) and that is when I scored. Then came a bunch of south-based events. Whatcom and Skagit unfortunately ended up in the screw zone for them all.

I don’t expect that pattern to hold for the rest of the winter. Odds are there will be storms that favour more northerly regions in general, as is typical.

Generally in a Niña, the northern areas will eventually catch up

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6 minutes ago, ShawniganLake said:

Generally in a Niña, the northern areas will eventually catch up

Was 2016/17 a Nina? 

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Elevation 580’ Location a few miles east of I-5 on the Snohomish Co side of the Snohomish/Skagit border. I love snow/cold AND sun/warmth! 

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