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PNW December 2022, winter might be coming; but mostly canceled.


The Blob

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925mb temp loop from Friday afternoon through Saturday afternoon... you can clearly see the cold air hanging on much longer in the Hood Canal area and Vancouver Island.

ecmwf-deterministic-washington-t925-1670414400-1670619600-1670716800-20.gif

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**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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For those tracking the Seahawks game on Sunday... 12Z ECMWF shows a totally dry and partly sunny day with temps in the mid 40s in Seattle.    Crisis averted for the NFL.   ;)

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**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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13 minutes ago, MossMan said:

It’s coming!!!! 

I am getting a sense that something big is coming later this month... just soooooo much blocking.     It would be awesome if it lined with Christmas again like last year.    Or maybe before and then we all have a cold, white Christmas.  👍

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**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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1 minute ago, TT-SEA said:

I am getting a sense that something big is coming later this month... just soooooo much blocking.     It would be awesome if it lined with Christmas again like last year.    Or maybe before and then we all have a cold, white Christmas.  👍

That would be perfection! 

Elevation 580’ Location a few miles east of I-5 on the Snohomish Co side of the Snohomish/Skagit border. I love snow/cold AND sun/warmth! 

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2 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

I am getting a sense that something big is coming later this month... just soooooo much blocking.     It would be awesome if it lined with Christmas again like last year.    Or maybe before and then we all have a cold, white Christmas.  👍

Pls no winter weather on christmas day. The amount of old folks that have to drive around to see families, etc.Recipe for disaster. And you know those crazy arseholes wont stay home!!

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5 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

I am getting a sense that something big is coming later this month... just soooooo much blocking.     It would be awesome if it lined with Christmas again like last year.    Or maybe before and then we all have a cold, white Christmas.  👍

A blizzard on the 21st. And then 10 days of sunny cold weather.  Make it happen. 

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6 minutes ago, RentonHillTC said:

Pls no winter weather on christmas day. The amount of old folks that have to drive around to see families, etc.Recipe for disaster. And you know those crazy arseholes wont stay home!!

I worked at a large retirement community (independent living to assisted living to nursing) from 2006 to 2013…We saw quite a few large snow/cold events during that time…The residents would NOT change their routines for anything…Yeah let’s take our afternoon walk while trees and massive branches were falling from the sky during the massive wet snow event of November 2006, or let’s take our normal drive to QFC in the thick of December 2008, or walk across the downed power lines in November 2010…Seniors are nuts but we will all be like that someday! 

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Elevation 580’ Location a few miles east of I-5 on the Snohomish Co side of the Snohomish/Skagit border. I love snow/cold AND sun/warmth! 

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Just now, MossMan said:

I worked at a large retirement community (independent living to assisted living to nursing) from 2006 to 2013…We saw quite a few large snow/cold events during that time…The residents would NOT change their routines for anything…Yeah let’s take our afternoon walk while trees and massive branches were falling from the sky during the massive wet snow event of November 2006, or let’s take our normal drive to QFC in the thick of December 2008, or walk across the downed power lines in November 2010…Seniors are nuts but we will all be like that someday! 

Something else for me to add to the list of things to promise to myself not to do when I reach that age.

(I don’t think it will be a struggle. I was a lot more uptight about trying to force things to happen on schedule when I was younger. I have learned through experience that in the long run, it typically doesn’t matter as much as it appeared at the time.)

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It's called clown range for a reason.

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Just now, TT-SEA said:

I am getting a sense that something big is coming later this month... just soooooo much blocking.     It would be awesome if it lined with Christmas again like last year.    Or maybe before and then we all have a cold, white Christmas.  👍

My son, who is 6, associates Christmas with snow already at this point.  I had to explain to him that it isn't normally like this that we snow/snow chances so close to Christmas.  Been a good stretch recently though.

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9 minutes ago, MossMan said:

I worked at a large retirement community (independent living to assisted living to nursing) from 2006 to 2013…We saw quite a few large snow/cold events during that time…The residents would NOT change their routines for anything…Yeah let’s take our afternoon walk while trees and massive branches were falling from the sky during the massive wet snow event of November 2006, or let’s take our normal drive to QFC in the thick of December 2008, or walk across the downed power lines in November 2010…Seniors are nuts but we will all be like that someday! 

Some of us are already there you little whippersnapper!

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The pattern next week on the ECMWF is spectacular for preserving snow cover.    Sunny days and cold nights with very low dewpoints.    I probably won't have much left to preserve here, but after Sunday whatever is left is not going anywhere.  It will be awesome for the Hood Canal and Vancouver Island areas that get heavy snow on Friday night and Saturday morning.

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**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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9 minutes ago, Snownerd3000 said:

My son, who is 6, associates Christmas with snow already at this point.  I had to explain to him that it isn't normally like this that we snow/snow chances so close to Christmas.  Been a good stretch recently though.

Yeah when I was a kid the only White Christmas (with snow falling Christmas morning) was 1990 when I was 14! There might have been one when I was really young but I don’t remember much before the early 80’s. Seems to be happening a little more frequently lately! 

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Elevation 580’ Location a few miles east of I-5 on the Snohomish Co side of the Snohomish/Skagit border. I love snow/cold AND sun/warmth! 

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11 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

Bowling balls in a sea of red... apparently zonal flow does not exist any more.  

ecmwf-deterministic-namer-z500_anom-1019200.png

To the degree that jet stream strength is related to temperature contrasts, Arctic amplification should probably cause a weaker jet on average.  

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That was an unreal GFS run!

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Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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3 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

The pattern next week on the ECMWF is spectacular for preserving snow cover.    Sunny days and cold nights with very low dewpoints.    I probably won't have much left to preserve here, but after Sunday whatever is left is not going anywhere.  It will be awesome for the Hood Canal and Vancouver Island areas that get heavy snow on Friday night and Saturday morning.

Unless a last minute miracle happens I will have bare ground for next week. That really bites. 

Elevation 580’ Location a few miles east of I-5 on the Snohomish Co side of the Snohomish/Skagit border. I love snow/cold AND sun/warmth! 

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3 minutes ago, MossMan said:

Yeah when I was a kid the only White Christmas (with snow falling Christmas morning) was 1990 when I was 14! There might have been one when I was really young but I don’t remember much before the early 80’s. Seems to be happening a little more frequently lately! 

I lived in cold-winter climates from age 4 onwards, and did not have a white Christmas until my college years. But that one was a doozy, 18".

By contrast, in the most recent 25 years of my life, I have seen a white Christmas four times (2007, 2008, 2017, 2021), despite living in statistically much less snowy climates.

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It's called clown range for a reason.

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14 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

The pattern next week on the ECMWF is spectacular for preserving snow cover.    Sunny days and cold nights with very low dewpoints.    I probably won't have much left to preserve here, but after Sunday whatever is left is not going anywhere.  It will be awesome for the Hood Canal and Vancouver Island areas that get heavy snow on Friday night and Saturday morning.

If it snows here this weekend it will probably last till Christmas. There’s a dense 7” on the ground already.  

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