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PNW December 2022, winter might be coming; but mostly canceled.


The Blob

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5 minutes ago, Doinko said:

18z is a lot different

500h_anom.na.png

 

500h_anom.na.png

Block appears to be in a much better spot Days 6-8 on the 18z.

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2023 - 2024 Cold Season Stats

Total Snowfall - 0.75”

Max Snow Depth - 0.5”

Coldest High Temp - 21 (Jan 13)

Coldest Low Temp - 9 (Jan 13)

Number of Freezes - 48

Sub-40 highs - 12

Highs 32 or lower - 3

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That cutoff is stalling the southern push of arctic air by hour 180. 

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Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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12 minutes ago, MWG said:

The struggle is real lol but this is how I remember the winters here when I moved 12 years ago. Fog and cloudy days that wouldn't go away.

image.png.25376e74dc7ca286e2ba3c6de5113349.png

Medford is statistically the foggiest town in the Pacific Northwest (where “foggiest” is defined as “greatest number of days with fog observed”).

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It's called clown range for a reason.

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NOPE. 

Down, but not out. We'll see where the run goes from here. 

gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_nwus_34.png

Edited by SilverFallsAndrew

Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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Gorgeous looking EPS today for week two!  You don;t see a pattern like that very often.

Of course the bad news is the initial trough this weekend digs too far off the coast to give us a realistic shot at much snow.  That will probably be made up for in the near future though.

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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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Just now, snow_wizard said:

Gorgeous looking EPS today for week two!  You don;t see a pattern like that very often.

Of course the bad news is the initial trough this weekend digs too far off the coast to give us a realistic shot at much snow.  That will probably be made up for in the near future though.

I'm sure everyone noticed that 18z GFS is back to showing snow nonetheless.

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Can you imagine if the 18Z GFS had the pattern and specific details right at 10 days out?    We would be singing its praises forever.    It has changed significantly for day 3 just since yesterday.   😀

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**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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4 minutes ago, Terreboner said:

Druncle has a good old fashioned snowstorm for the entire region if that low can dip about 150 miles south.  It's a monster snowstorm over here how it sits now!!

Edit:  for the 16th/17th :)

Massive snow/ice storm for Portland too. 1.5" of ice followed by 10" of snow

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Block is a little skinny, but reading the tea leaves this could be LARGE 

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Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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The GFS and ECMWF agree today will be the "warmest" day in a while.  Even at that it's still below normal.

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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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2 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

Can you imagine if the 18Z GFS had the pattern and specific details right at 10 days out?    We would be singing its praises forever.    It has changed significantly for day 3 just since yesterday.   😀

Looks much too dry.  It’ll be much snowier than it’s indicating

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3 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

Can you imagine if the 18Z GFS had the pattern and specific details right at 10 days out?    We would be singing its praises forever.    It has changed significantly for day 3 just since yesterday.   😀

Thanks Nostradamus.  We wouldn’t be here if we weren’t all degenerates 

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1 minute ago, BLI snowman said:

Would be nice to see a 50-free month. 

I think this one has a very good shot... at SEA at least.

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**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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Just now, Doinko said:

Wonder what crazy low temps the GooFuS will show with 10" of snow on the ground at Portland and an impending Arctic airmass

Thing is Portland's record low is actually lower than Seattle's, because you have a potential huge door to the icebox.

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Just now, 12345WeatherNerd said:

Thing is Portland's record low is actually lower than Seattle's, because you have a potential huge door to the icebox.

Yeah I think SeaTacs record low is 0? and Portlands is -3 both from 1950. Though the easy access to east wind probably could keep it warmer a lot of nights. Salem and Eugene's record lows are -12! From December 1972.

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1 minute ago, TT-SEA said:

I think this one has a very good shot... at SEA at least.

Definitely. The tail end of December is the one time where 50+ weather is legit kinda hard for us unless there's pineapple juice. So the fact that the first half of the month may pull it off in many places bodes well for those odds. 

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1 minute ago, BLI snowman said:

Definitely. The tail end of December is the one time where 50+ weather is legit kinda hard for us unless there's pineapple juice. So the fact that the first half of the month may pull it off in many places bodes well for those odds. 

Didn't Portland have a 64/60 day on Christmas at some point or something ridiculous like that? I'm not sure about the year though

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2 minutes ago, jcmcgaffey said:

Ya komo left that clarification out of theirs making it sound like the coldest week ever. 

I'm curious to know which part that needed clarification? They did said coldest week in 78 years of recordkeeping, followed by 6 straight days of measurable snow. 

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3 minutes ago, Cloud said:

I'm curious to know which part that needed clarification? They did said coldest week in 78 years of recordkeeping, followed by 6 straight days of measurable snow. 

Maybe put dates in there. In the end not a big deal and still impressive to have a record cold week these days. 

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