Doinko Posted December 7, 2022 Report Share Posted December 7, 2022 Okay... 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cloud Posted December 7, 2022 Report Share Posted December 7, 2022 LR just goes dumb dumb cold... major Columbia Gorge flow for PDX. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RentonHill Posted December 7, 2022 Report Share Posted December 7, 2022 end of this run is gonna be straight heroin 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Doinko Posted December 7, 2022 Report Share Posted December 7, 2022 Just now, Cloud said: LR just goes dumb dumb cold... major Columbia Gorge flow for PDX. And then a massive snowstorm for the Sound, sleet storm for PDX and SW WA and ice storm for the Willamette Valley Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snownerd3000 Posted December 7, 2022 Report Share Posted December 7, 2022 I guess we know what that monster in the Aleutians wants to do 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MR.SNOWMIZER Posted December 7, 2022 Report Share Posted December 7, 2022 3 minutes ago, Doinko said: Now the clown range GFS wants to give us a sleet storm Thanks Worm, Not you. We come from the land of the ice and snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SouthHillFrosty Posted December 7, 2022 Report Share Posted December 7, 2022 1 minute ago, RentonHillTC said: end of this run is gonna be straight heroin 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rubus Leucodermis Posted December 7, 2022 Report Share Posted December 7, 2022 21 minutes ago, 12345WeatherNerd said: Thing is Portland's record low is actually lower than Seattle's, because you have a potential huge door to the icebox. It is. 2 It's called clown range for a reason. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RentonHill Posted December 7, 2022 Report Share Posted December 7, 2022 now THAT is legit for ML 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Slushy Inch Posted December 7, 2022 Report Share Posted December 7, 2022 2 minutes ago, Doinko said: Okay... And look at the 500mb heights, just hysterical. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AlTahoe Posted December 7, 2022 Report Share Posted December 7, 2022 1 minute ago, RentonHillTC said: end of this run is gonna be straight heroin What happens when a Cat 3 hurricane meets the 516mb line? This run is off the rails more so than usual 5 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Slushy Inch Posted December 7, 2022 Report Share Posted December 7, 2022 Just now, Rubus Leucodermis said: It is. It is. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RentonHill Posted December 7, 2022 Report Share Posted December 7, 2022 1 minute ago, AlTahoe said: What happens when a Cat 3 hurricane meets the 516mb line? This run is off the rails more so than usual nvm gonna undercut the ridge etc but it still makes me want to do heroin (cue Jim "Heroin is bad!") 2 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Slushy Inch Posted December 7, 2022 Report Share Posted December 7, 2022 How in the hell does GFS think the low-level temps will be this cold? Just ridiculous. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cloud Posted December 7, 2022 Report Share Posted December 7, 2022 8 minutes ago, Doinko said: Okay... I'll show you some teens but throw sleet at you just because... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted December 7, 2022 Report Share Posted December 7, 2022 1 minute ago, 12345WeatherNerd said: How in the hell does GFS think the low-level temps will be this cold? Just ridiculous. It can easily be that cold in the Seattle area... it was just last December. 3 **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deweydog Posted December 7, 2022 Report Share Posted December 7, 2022 1 minute ago, 12345WeatherNerd said: How in the hell does GFS think the low-level temps will be this cold? Just ridiculous. Ok Tim… 1 1 2 My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowySeeker50 Posted December 7, 2022 Report Share Posted December 7, 2022 Got a replacement for once the remains of the real one melt away. 3 1 3 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SouthHillFrosty Posted December 7, 2022 Report Share Posted December 7, 2022 2 minutes ago, 12345WeatherNerd said: How in the hell does GFS think the low-level temps will be this cold? Just ridiculous. And it shows freezing rain…… I thought 32 and rain was bad. I’ll be pissed If it’s 22 and raining Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Slushy Inch Posted December 7, 2022 Report Share Posted December 7, 2022 1 minute ago, TT-SEA said: It can easily be that cold in the Seattle area... it was just last December. Yeah, but the warm front seems to have little effect. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deweydog Posted December 7, 2022 Report Share Posted December 7, 2022 1 minute ago, SnowySeeker50 said: Got a replacement for once the remains of the real one melt away. Saw a lot of these the last few days. Definitely the highest dead leaf concentration I’ve ever seen. #wintersummerwinter2022 1 My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
High Desert Mat? Posted December 7, 2022 Report Share Posted December 7, 2022 4 minutes ago, SouthHillFrosty said: And it shows freezing rain…… I thought 32 and rain was bad. I’ll be pissed If it’s 22 and raining Zr is great as long as there’s not much damage. I really enjoy it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snownerd3000 Posted December 7, 2022 Report Share Posted December 7, 2022 I think the theme of the recent runs is that big changes might be on their way the 2nd half of the month 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Popular Post AlTahoe Posted December 7, 2022 Popular Post Report Share Posted December 7, 2022 Saturday is gonna be fun! NWS Reno Probabilities for 4+ feet along the Sierra crest through the duration of the weekend are nearing 75%, while Sierra mountain communities are seeing about a 75% chance of seeing accumulations near 2 feet. The heaviest snowfall rates are expected on Saturday thanks in part to the Sierra remaining on the cold side of a dynamic 130kt jet that will push through this weekend. Snowfall rates 2-3+"/hr rates will be possible during this period with some lightning strikes not out of the question with the alignment of instability and jet forcing. 4 4 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted December 7, 2022 Report Share Posted December 7, 2022 Okay then. I just now had time to look at the 12z runs. Never mind the outlandish Op runs, but the excellent improvement with the GEFS/EPS really intensifying the backdoor cold. Considerably colder. I likely will not reach freezing out here for many days with quite an east wind event/storm. This looks awesome. Colder runs ahead!(c)Rob 2017 MBG(c)Rob 2016 00z GFS in 4 hours 18 minutes 00z ECMWF in 6 hours 28 minutes 7 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Doinko Posted December 7, 2022 Report Share Posted December 7, 2022 6 minutes ago, SouthHillFrosty said: And it shows freezing rain…… I thought 32 and rain was bad. I’ll be pissed If it’s 22 and raining Happened here last February. Low-mid 20s with mix of freezing rain and sleet. 12" of snow forecast became only 4-5" 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Seattle Posted December 7, 2022 Report Share Posted December 7, 2022 It's beginning to feel like the leadup to last week's event. Who's ready for the inevitable 33 degree slush! 1 1 1 1 2022-23 Winter: 11/29: .25" + 1" = 1.25" | 11/30: .25" 12/2: .2" + .5" = .7" | 12/3: .2" | 12/4: trace 12/18: .4" | 12/19: .2" + .8" = 1.0" | 12/20: .2 + 1.5" = 1.7 1/31: trace | 2/14: trace | 2/22: .2 | 2/26: 1.0" Total: 6.7" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SouthHillFrosty Posted December 7, 2022 Report Share Posted December 7, 2022 Tbh it doesn’t show that much snow for Seattle and Portland 1 2 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted December 7, 2022 Report Share Posted December 7, 2022 1 minute ago, SouthHillFrosty said: Tbh it doesn’t show that much snow for Seattle and Portland That model is on crack. We would have a sufficiently deep cold layer at least in PDX metro. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Doinko Posted December 7, 2022 Report Share Posted December 7, 2022 Just now, Gradient Keeper said: That model is on crack. We would have sufficiently deep cold at least in PDX metro. Wouldn't an AR warm us up pretty fast though? That's what it looks like at the end with the sleet storm at least. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snownerd3000 Posted December 7, 2022 Report Share Posted December 7, 2022 2 minutes ago, SouthHillFrosty said: Tbh it doesn’t show that much snow for Seattle and Portland This would cripple the region 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest administrator Posted December 7, 2022 Report Share Posted December 7, 2022 2 minutes ago, SouthHillFrosty said: Tbh it doesn’t show that much snow for Seattle and Portland Please be real. Please be real. Please be real. Please be real. Please be real. Please be real. Please be real. Please be real. Please be real. Please be real. Please be real. Please be real. Please be real. Please be real. Please be real. Please be real. Please be real. Please be real. Please be real. Please be real. Please be real. Please be real. Please be real. Please be real. Please be real. Please be real. Please be real. Please be real. Please be real. Please be real. Please be real. Please be real. Please be real. Please be real. Please be real. Please be real. Please be real. Please be real. Please be real. Please be real. Please be real. Please be real. Please be real. Please be real. Please be real. Please be real. Please be real. Please be real. Please be real. Please be real. Please be real. Please be real. Please be real. Please be real. Please be real. Please be real. Please be real. Please be real. Please be real. Please be real. Please be real. Please be real. Please be real. Please be real. Please be real. Please be real. Please be real. Please be real. Please be real. Please be real. Please be real. Please be real. Please be real. Please be real. Please be real. Please be real. Please be real. Please be real. Please be real. Please be real. Please be real. Please be real. Please be real. Please be real. Please be real. Please be real. Please be real. Please be real. Please be real. Please be real. Please be real. Please be real. Please be real. Please be real. Please be real. Please be real. Please be real. Please be real. Please be real. Please be real. Please be real. Please be real. Please be real. Please be real. Please be real. Please be real. Please be real. Please be real. Please be real. Please be real. Please be real. Please be real. Please be real. Please be real. Please be real. Please be real. Please be real. Please be real. Please be real. Please be real. Please be real. Please be real. Please be real. Please be real. Please be real. Please be real. Please be real. Please be real. Please be real. Please be real. Please be real. Please be real. Please be real. Please be real. Please be real. Please be real. Please be real. Please be real. Please be real. Please be real. Please be real. Please be real. Please be real. Please be real. Please be real. Please be real. Please be real. Please be real. Please be real. Please be real. Please be real. Please be real. Please be real. Please be real. Please be real. Please be real. Please be real. Please be real. Please be real. Please be real. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian_in_Leavenworth Posted December 7, 2022 Report Share Posted December 7, 2022 4 minutes ago, AlTahoe said: Saturday is gonna be fun! NWS Reno Probabilities for 4+ feet along the Sierra crest through the duration of the weekend are nearing 75%, while Sierra mountain communities are seeing about a 75% chance of seeing accumulations near 2 feet. The heaviest snowfall rates are expected on Saturday thanks in part to the Sierra remaining on the cold side of a dynamic 130kt jet that will push through this weekend. Snowfall rates 2-3+"/hr rates will be possible during this period with some lightning strikes not out of the question with the alignment of instability and jet forcing. Wow! On another note, having read AFD's now for many years, I have noticed a change in format, and seeing this one, its apparent that it's not just my local office. What I'm seeing are the listing of the percentage chances of different snow amounts in specific areas. I don't remember before hearing that kind of wording before. They have been doing that here this winter for several different cities. Guessing they are using ensembles. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Popular Post RentonHill Posted December 7, 2022 Popular Post Report Share Posted December 7, 2022 Is this better i cant tell 2 8 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RentonHill Posted December 7, 2022 Report Share Posted December 7, 2022 these babies are just foaming at the mouth to get back to work 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Slushy Inch Posted December 7, 2022 Report Share Posted December 7, 2022 2 minutes ago, RentonHillTC said: Is this better i cant tell Yes, 500mb pattern is much better too 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kayla Posted December 7, 2022 Report Share Posted December 7, 2022 3 hours ago, Doinko said: That's a weird 500mb pattern for an arctic outbreak. Is what the EPS control run showing similar to February 2021 in some ways? I'm not sure though. It's showing a wonky pattern so take it with a grain of salt but the general theme of high latitude blocking continues on the ensembles. February 2021 did have nearly coast to coast cold like what this is showing. 5 Cold Season 2023/24: Total snowfall: 26" Highest daily snowfall: 5" Deepest snow depth: 12" Coldest daily high: -20ºF Coldest daily low: -42ºF Number of subzero days: 5 Personal Weather Station on Wunderground: https://www.wunderground.com/personal-weather-station/dashboard?ID=KMTBOZEM152#history Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snownerd3000 Posted December 7, 2022 Report Share Posted December 7, 2022 1 minute ago, RentonHillTC said: these babies are just foaming at the mouth to get back to work 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MWG Posted December 7, 2022 Report Share Posted December 7, 2022 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted December 7, 2022 Report Share Posted December 7, 2022 The 18z GEFS is no doubt about it cold for week two. It and the EPS have really trended colder in the past few runs. 3 1 Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 45 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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