Brian_in_Leavenworth Posted December 8, 2022 Report Share Posted December 8, 2022 (edited) 3 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said: Everyone just stopped talking about the ensemble run… I'll break the silence. Edit: Rob beat me to it, but here's day 9 Edited December 8, 2022 by Brian_in_Leavenworth 1 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted December 8, 2022 Report Share Posted December 8, 2022 00z ECMWF Day 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kolk1604 Posted December 8, 2022 Report Share Posted December 8, 2022 Just now, Gradient Keeper said: 00z ECMWF Day 1 Guys... It's time 1 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Winterdog Posted December 8, 2022 Report Share Posted December 8, 2022 Backdoor blasts for those of us up here are like kissing your own sister. They may look nice but there's definitely something missing. 1 1 2 4 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SouthHillFrosty Posted December 8, 2022 Report Share Posted December 8, 2022 1 minute ago, Winterdog said: Backdoor blasts for those of us up here are like kissing your sister. They may look nice but there's definitely something missing. 4 1 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted December 8, 2022 Report Share Posted December 8, 2022 Day 2 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted December 8, 2022 Report Share Posted December 8, 2022 Day 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
VancouverIslandSouth Posted December 8, 2022 Report Share Posted December 8, 2022 The low's going too far north for much fun this weekend on the 0z ECMWF. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted December 8, 2022 Report Share Posted December 8, 2022 Day 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted December 8, 2022 Report Share Posted December 8, 2022 1 hour ago, Gradient Keeper said: Not sure if we see an arctic blast this run, but there is definitely a bitter low level blast! It's cold no matter how you slice it. High chance of a top 10% cold December after the top 5 to 10% cold November. 3 Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 45 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted December 8, 2022 Report Share Posted December 8, 2022 Day 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rubus Leucodermis Posted December 8, 2022 Report Share Posted December 8, 2022 43 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said: @TigerWoodsLibido ready for some BSF while everyone north of Wilsonville gets buried! BSF? I am unfamiliar with that TLA. It's called clown range for a reason. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted December 8, 2022 Report Share Posted December 8, 2022 Just now, Rubus Leucodermis said: BSF? I am unfamiliar with that TLA. Boring southerly flow. 1 1 Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted December 8, 2022 Report Share Posted December 8, 2022 My expectations aren't high at all for the snow chance this weekend. Once we get into the solidly cold pattern chances will come up. 4 Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 45 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted December 8, 2022 Report Share Posted December 8, 2022 Day 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted December 8, 2022 Report Share Posted December 8, 2022 Quite remarkably the GEM looks like everything else around day 10. Amazing to have such good model agreement on such a weird pattern. 3 Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 45 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rubus Leucodermis Posted December 8, 2022 Report Share Posted December 8, 2022 1 minute ago, snow_wizard said: My expectations aren't high at all for the snow chance this weekend. East Vancouver Island and Hood Canal Special. Everyone else gets slushy rain… at best. It's called clown range for a reason. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Poulsbo Snowman Posted December 8, 2022 Report Share Posted December 8, 2022 2 minutes ago, Gradient Keeper said: Day 6 Aww. A little fox. 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherGeek2022 Posted December 8, 2022 Report Share Posted December 8, 2022 1 minute ago, snow_wizard said: My expectations aren't high at all for the snow chance this weekend. Once we get into the solidly cold pattern chances will come up. plz no AR transition event Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kolk1604 Posted December 8, 2022 Report Share Posted December 8, 2022 4 minutes ago, Poulsbo Snowman said: Aww. A little fox. He's getting so big 2 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted December 8, 2022 Report Share Posted December 8, 2022 Day 7 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LowerGarfield Posted December 8, 2022 Report Share Posted December 8, 2022 1 hour ago, Kolk1604 said: Canadians and Americans can never get along. Last time it was a relentless assault of polar lobes on the Canadian and nothing on the GFS Sounds like the last two times we tried to conquer Canada. For the first, Arnold's assault on Quebec City during a New Year's Eve snowstorm -I bet that must've been a crazy experience. For the second, all attempts failed during the War of 1812 and a hurricane saved DC from total burn damage. That would be terrifying but really interesting to observe. Garfield County/Pomeroy, WA: 2023-2024 Snowfall totals: 14.3 inches HIghest snow total (per event): 5.8 inches total 1/11/24 - 1/12/24. Most recent accumulation (non trace): 0.20 inches on 2/26/24 Days with trace or more snowfall: 12/01/23 (0.60), 1/8/24 (1.0), 1/10/24 (3.5), 1/11/23 (3.5 inches with Thundersnow; separate event from prior day), 1/12/24 (2.30). 1/14/24 (T), 1/17/24 (1.20 inches), 1/18/24 (1.5 inches), 1/19/24 (0.20), 2/09/24 (0.30), 2/26/24 (0.20-mainly graupel), 4/5/24 (T) First Freeze: 10/27/2023 Last Sub freezing Day: 1/20/24 (12th) (8 days in a row from 1/12/24-1/20/24) Coldest low: -12F (!!!!!!!!) (1/12/24) Last White Christmas: 2022 at my location (on ground) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted December 8, 2022 Report Share Posted December 8, 2022 ECMWF 925mb temps on Saturday morning... even if it meets the GFS half way it's still too warm. Crazy difference for just 60 hours out. 1 **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted December 8, 2022 Report Share Posted December 8, 2022 Day 8 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Slushy Inch Posted December 8, 2022 Report Share Posted December 8, 2022 Welp, on to the EPS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kolk1604 Posted December 8, 2022 Report Share Posted December 8, 2022 3 minutes ago, 12345WeatherNerd said: Welp, on to the EPS There's still time 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Slushy Inch Posted December 8, 2022 Report Share Posted December 8, 2022 Just now, Kolk1604 said: There's still time That is a massive ridge, would take a while to retrograde. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted December 8, 2022 Report Share Posted December 8, 2022 Day 9'er 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted December 8, 2022 Report Share Posted December 8, 2022 Completely disorganized jet stream... 2 **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted December 8, 2022 Report Share Posted December 8, 2022 4 minutes ago, Gradient Keeper said: Day 9'er What a crazy pattern. 1 **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Slushy Inch Posted December 8, 2022 Report Share Posted December 8, 2022 3 minutes ago, TT-SEA said: Completely disorganized jet stream... I am 99 percent sure EPS will be very different. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted December 8, 2022 Report Share Posted December 8, 2022 Day 10 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted December 8, 2022 Report Share Posted December 8, 2022 Just now, 12345WeatherNerd said: I am 99 percent sure EPS will be very different. I'm 98.9% 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jbolin Posted December 8, 2022 Report Share Posted December 8, 2022 I've decided to give up on this winter and "weenie" as hard as one can possibly "weenie". Let the mustard flow baby 1 1 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted December 8, 2022 Report Share Posted December 8, 2022 Arctic air over the Gulf of Mexico... goofy. 1 3 **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SouthHillFrosty Posted December 8, 2022 Report Share Posted December 8, 2022 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ice_is_Everywhere Posted December 8, 2022 Report Share Posted December 8, 2022 2 minutes ago, TT-SEA said: Arctic air over the Gulf of Mexico... goofy. Very weird 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted December 8, 2022 Report Share Posted December 8, 2022 Just now, Gradient Keeper said: I'm 98.9% Guessing the model runs will be far more volatile than usual in this situation. I can't remember anything like this. 4 **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted December 8, 2022 Report Share Posted December 8, 2022 1 minute ago, Ice_is_Everywhere said: Very weird It's like the entire map is upside down. 1 **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted December 8, 2022 Report Share Posted December 8, 2022 00z ECMWF 10 Day Rainfall, Snowfall totals Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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