PNW December 2022, winter might be coming; but mostly canceled.

[Brian_in_Leavenworth]

3 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Everyone just stopped talking about the ensemble run…

I'll break the silence.

Edit:  Rob beat me to it, but here's day 9

 

Edited December 8, 2022 by Brian_in_Leavenworth

[Gradient Keeper]

00z ECMWF Day 1

[Kolk1604]

Just now, Gradient Keeper said:

00z ECMWF Day 1

Guys... It's time 

[Winterdog]

Backdoor blasts for those of us up here are like kissing your own sister.  They may look nice but there's definitely something missing.  

[SouthHillFrosty]

1 minute ago, Winterdog said:

Backdoor blasts for those of us up here are like kissing your sister.  They may look nice but there's definitely something missing.  

[Gradient Keeper]

Day 2

[Gradient Keeper]

Day 3

[VancouverIslandSouth]

The low's going too far north for much fun this weekend on the 0z ECMWF.

[Gradient Keeper]

Day 4

[snow_wizard]

1 hour ago, Gradient Keeper said:

Not sure if we see an arctic blast this run, but there is definitely a bitter low level blast!

 

It's cold no matter how you slice it.  High chance of a top 10% cold December after the top 5 to 10% cold November.

[Gradient Keeper]

Day 5

[Rubus Leucodermis]

43 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

@TigerWoodsLibido ready for

some BSF while everyone north of Wilsonville gets buried!

BSF? I am unfamiliar with that TLA.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Just now, Rubus Leucodermis said:

BSF? I am unfamiliar with that TLA.

Boring southerly flow. 

[snow_wizard]

My expectations aren't high at all for the snow chance this weekend.  Once we get into the solidly cold pattern chances will come up.

[Gradient Keeper]

Day 6

[snow_wizard]

Quite remarkably the GEM looks like everything else around day 10.  Amazing to have such good model agreement on such a weird pattern.

[Rubus Leucodermis]

1 minute ago, snow_wizard said:

My expectations aren't high at all for the snow chance this weekend.

East Vancouver Island and Hood Canal Special. Everyone else gets slushy rain… at best.

[Poulsbo Snowman]

2 minutes ago, Gradient Keeper said:

Day 6

Aww.  A little fox.

[WeatherGeek2022]

1 minute ago, snow_wizard said:

My expectations aren't high at all for the snow chance this weekend.  Once we get into the solidly cold pattern chances will come up.

plz no AR transition event

[Kolk1604]

4 minutes ago, Poulsbo Snowman said:

Aww.  A little fox.

He's getting so big 

[Gradient Keeper]

Day 7

[LowerGarfield]

1 hour ago, Kolk1604 said:

Canadians and Americans can never get along. 

Last time it was a relentless assault of polar lobes on the Canadian and nothing on the GFS 

Sounds like the last two times we tried to conquer Canada. For the first, Arnold's assault on Quebec City during a New Year's Eve snowstorm -I bet that must've been a crazy experience.

For the second, all attempts failed during the War of 1812 and a hurricane saved DC from total burn damage. That would be terrifying but really interesting to observe.

[TT-SEA]

ECMWF 925mb temps on Saturday morning... even if it meets the GFS half way it's still too warm.   Crazy difference for just 60 hours out.   

[Gradient Keeper]

Day 8

[Slushy Inch]

Welp, on to the EPS

[Kolk1604]

3 minutes ago, 12345WeatherNerd said:

Welp, on to the EPS

There's still time 

[Slushy Inch]

Just now, Kolk1604 said:

There's still time 

That is a massive ridge, would take a while to retrograde.

[Gradient Keeper]

Day 9'er

[TT-SEA]

Completely disorganized jet stream... 

[TT-SEA]

4 minutes ago, Gradient Keeper said:

Day 9'er

What a crazy pattern.

[Slushy Inch]

3 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

Completely disorganized jet stream... 

I am 99 percent sure EPS will be very different.

[Gradient Keeper]

Day 10

[Gradient Keeper]

Just now, 12345WeatherNerd said:

I am 99 percent sure EPS will be very different.

I'm 98.9%

[Jbolin]

I've decided to give up on this winter and "weenie" as hard as one can possibly "weenie".

Let the mustard flow baby 

[TT-SEA]

Arctic air over the Gulf of Mexico... goofy.

[SouthHillFrosty]

[Ice_is_Everywhere]

2 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

Arctic air over the Gulf of Mexico... goofy.

Very weird

[TT-SEA]

Just now, Gradient Keeper said:

I'm 98.9%

Guessing the model runs will be far more volatile than usual in this situation.    I can't remember anything like this. 

[TT-SEA]

1 minute ago, Ice_is_Everywhere said:

Very weird

It's like the entire map is upside down.

[Gradient Keeper]

00z ECMWF 10 Day Rainfall, Snowfall totals