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PNW December 2022, winter might be coming; but mostly canceled.


The Blob

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2 minutes ago, Doinko said:

We do get a decent backdoor airmass on the GFS at least in the clown range
sfct.us_nw.png

I'd be fine with that. I'm not greedy. 

  • Like 1

Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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39 minutes ago, TacomaWx said:

I legitimately want to be moved out to an area that does better in snow overall like west kitsap or near the cascades by the time I’m 30. Not just for winter weather but just to get out of city life and have more space from people too. 

You will not regret a second of it. I don’t know how people live in cities or in crammed in developments with your every movement being monitored by nosey neighbors or HOA’s…I tell you being on 5 acres, house tucked well away from the main road (which is super quiet) and only seeing trees and woods and not neighbors. It’s heaven. 

  • Like 7

Elevation 580’ Location a few miles east of I-5 on the Snohomish Co side of the Snohomish/Skagit border. I love snow/cold AND sun/warmth! 

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8 minutes ago, TacomaWx said:

I’ll be 24 in 3 months so I think 30 is very doable. Just landed a really good job last month too so I’m feeling pretty optimistic about the goal. 

Yeah, it's realistic. Especially with the market cooling down and becoming a little more reasonable. I bought this place at 27. I got pretty lucky with the market bottoming out, but I saved pretty much every spare penny I made from the time I got out of college until then. I didn't even have much of an income at the time I bought (Like $12 an hour), but I had enough for a big down payment. I have a ton of equity now, and could definitely afford to upgrade, but I like the location, not just the elevation, but being on a dead end road, and I'm pretty set here. Plus the monthly payment is less than a 1 bedroom apartment would cost me now, so why not. 

The only down side to living here is the commute, I was working in Silverton when I bought, but I knew if my career advanced I would have to work in Salem or Portland, but you get used to that after a while. Sometimes the best part of my day is just chilling in the car driving to and from work. My wife works in Portland and I know she enjoys the commute too. 

  • Like 2

Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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8 minutes ago, MossMan said:

You will not regret a second of it. I don’t know how people live in cities or in crammed in developments with your every movement being monitored by nosey neighbors or HOA’s…I tell you being on 5 acres, house tucked well away from the main road (which is super quiet) and only seeing trees and woods and not neighbors. It’s heaven. 

I grew up on a farm, so settling in a city was just never an option for me. Biggest town I ever lived in was Bartlesville, OK, which has only about 30K people and is about 40 miles from Tulsa, so is feels pretty isolated. 

  • Like 2

Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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Just now, Terreboner said:

Messages get passed over because most are not smart enough to know what it is.

 

Unless someone googles it then they think they are smart.

How drunk are you?!

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  • scream 1

Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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1 minute ago, Terreboner said:

Messages get passed over because most are not smart enough to know what it is.

 

Unless someone googles it then they think they are smart.

@Phishy Wx I think someone took our advice

  • lol 2

Weather stats for MBY

Snowfall:

-Total snowfall since joining: 50.25"

-2018-19: 21"

-2019-20: 2.5"

-2020-21: 13"

-2021-22: 8.75"

-2022-23: 5.75"

-2023-24*: 0.25"

-Most recent snowfall: 0.25”; January 17th, 2024

-Largest snowfall (single storm): 8.5"; February 12-13, 2021

-Largest snow depth: 14"; 1:30am February 12th, 2019

Temperatures:

-Warmest: 109F; June 28th, 2021

-Coldest: 13F; December 27th, 2021

-Phreeze Count 2023-24: 31

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The GEM just absolutely crushes us on this run.  Nice improvement on the GFS as well.

  • Like 3

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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6 minutes ago, RentonHillTC said:

doesnt get there but thats as far out as the ICON goes

icon-all-namer-z500_anom-1451200.png

It appears that energy shooting into the Yukon is the thing that could mess this up.  The GEM avoided that happening and it blasted us.

  • Like 1

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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1 minute ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Yeah, it's realistic. Especially with the market cooling down and becoming a little more reasonable. I bought this place at 27. I got pretty lucky with the market bottoming out, but I saved pretty much every spare penny I made from the time I got out of college until then. I didn't even have much of an income at the time I bought (Like $12 an hour), but I had enough for a big down payment. I have a ton of equity now, and could definitely afford to upgrade, but I like the location, not just the elevation, but being on a dead end road, and I'm pretty set here. Plus the monthly payment is less than a 1 bedroom apartment would cost me now, so why not. 

The only down side to living here is the commute, I was working in Silverton when I bought, but I knew if my career advanced I would have to work in Salem or Portland, but you get used to that after a while. Sometimes the best part of my day is just chilling in the car driving to and from work. My wife works in Portland and I know she enjoys the commute too. 

Commuting was rough for us too, at first. I'm grateful that I've been able to work from home for the last few years, but before that I was taking the almost-6am ferry into West Seattle every day to get to my teaching job by 7am. I don't miss the ferry schedule stress, but sitting on the ferry in the early morning with a cup of coffee was often a lovely ritual.  

Still....whether commuting or no, being able to come home to real country quiet, away from the noise and ambient lights? That's something I've wanted for a long, long time. I didn't realize how much I needed it until we moved here. 

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2 minutes ago, Terreboner said:

You don't know the lyrics I posted.  No googling.

Don't prove my point for me.

I assumed it was TOOL or SEETHER. LOL

Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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20 minutes ago, Nov1985 said:

As of last Friday, GFS clown range starts at hour 3 now. Just sayin' :lol:

I'm really disappointed that this upgrade appears to be as bad as the last on the GFS.  It was a better model before the upgrade prior to this recent one.

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  • Facepalm 1

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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1 minute ago, RentonHillTC said:

Didnt 1968 have a little more...snow?????? @Meatyorologist 

gem-all-KBFI-tmp_qpf_snow-0803200.png

ehhhh the CMC is probably underdoing that transitional stuff. plus it displaces it south into a slider system for OR

Weather stats for MBY

Snowfall:

-Total snowfall since joining: 50.25"

-2018-19: 21"

-2019-20: 2.5"

-2020-21: 13"

-2021-22: 8.75"

-2022-23: 5.75"

-2023-24*: 0.25"

-Most recent snowfall: 0.25”; January 17th, 2024

-Largest snowfall (single storm): 8.5"; February 12-13, 2021

-Largest snow depth: 14"; 1:30am February 12th, 2019

Temperatures:

-Warmest: 109F; June 28th, 2021

-Coldest: 13F; December 27th, 2021

-Phreeze Count 2023-24: 31

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Just now, snow_wizard said:

I'm really disappointed that this upgrade appears to be as bad as the last on the GFS.  It was a better model before the upgrade prior to this recent one.

Didn't it have an upgrade it 2019? IRRC that was horrible!

Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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3 minutes ago, RentonHillTC said:

Didnt 1968 have a little more...snow?????? @Meatyorologist 

gem-all-KBFI-tmp_qpf_snow-0803200.png

It had some snow going into the cold and then a big one at the end.

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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1 minute ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Didn't it have an upgrade it 2019? IRRC that was horrible!

I think it might have been around the time of the Feb 2021 blast.  I remember being shocked by the weird looking patterns it was spitting out when it was first released.

  • Like 1

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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image.gif

Notice that band of temporary warming coming out of BC into WA at the end of the 00z NAM. That's due to high cloud banding drifting overhead. I've seen similar sfc temp responses with local weather stations in identical situations.

We shitt on our modeling a lot but we forget that these are highly sophisticated algorithms and their simulations hold surprising amounts of fidelity and information. Pretty incredible our computing is so good as to pick up on such a subtle feature.

  • Like 5
  • Weenie 1

Weather stats for MBY

Snowfall:

-Total snowfall since joining: 50.25"

-2018-19: 21"

-2019-20: 2.5"

-2020-21: 13"

-2021-22: 8.75"

-2022-23: 5.75"

-2023-24*: 0.25"

-Most recent snowfall: 0.25”; January 17th, 2024

-Largest snowfall (single storm): 8.5"; February 12-13, 2021

-Largest snow depth: 14"; 1:30am February 12th, 2019

Temperatures:

-Warmest: 109F; June 28th, 2021

-Coldest: 13F; December 27th, 2021

-Phreeze Count 2023-24: 31

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Temp has dropped to 38 here now.  The drier air is starting to clear it out a tad.

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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5 minutes ago, Terreboner said:

Taylor Dayne

Hmmm. You know most people on here only listen to Taylor Swift. 

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Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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5 minutes ago, Terreboner said:

I have 14" on the ground.  What hour 240 says means little to me.

I would love hour 312 to bang me hard though because that means I get a white Christmas....maybe.  It all means nothing right now so let's all pump some sewage into our drainage system like cousin Eddie.

Plug in your Fukking Christmas lights!!!  Make love to your wife, girlfriend, boyfriend, pillow, pocket *****, hand, sliver of a doubt............and Merry Goddamm Christmas you obsessed weather weenie sons of *******!!!!!!!!!!!

Whatever you are on, no matter what, enjoy the snow! I have plans to do some not-so-sober stuff when the next big thunderstorm rolls around. Been a bucket list item for me for a while. A two foot overachiever of a snowstorm is also a good substitute.

Just be careful if you feel the need to dive into your sea of white! I know that urge well ;)

  • Like 3

Weather stats for MBY

Snowfall:

-Total snowfall since joining: 50.25"

-2018-19: 21"

-2019-20: 2.5"

-2020-21: 13"

-2021-22: 8.75"

-2022-23: 5.75"

-2023-24*: 0.25"

-Most recent snowfall: 0.25”; January 17th, 2024

-Largest snowfall (single storm): 8.5"; February 12-13, 2021

-Largest snow depth: 14"; 1:30am February 12th, 2019

Temperatures:

-Warmest: 109F; June 28th, 2021

-Coldest: 13F; December 27th, 2021

-Phreeze Count 2023-24: 31

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1 minute ago, Meatyorologist said:

image.gif

Notice that band of temporary warming coming out of BC into WA at the end of the 00z NAM. That's due to high cloud banding drifting overhead. I've seen similar sfc temp responses with local weather stations in identical situations.

We shitt on our modeling a lot but we forget that these are highly sophisticated algorithms and their simulations hold surprising amounts of fidelity and information. Pretty incredible our computing is so good as to pick up on such a subtle feature.

The ECMWF actually picked up on the warming and cooling oscillation here on Friday night and Saturday as evaporative cooling increased and decreased depending on precip rates.

  • Like 2

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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Just now, snow_wizard said:

The ECMWF actually picked up on the warming and cooling oscillation here on Friday night and Saturday as evaporative cooling increased and decreased depending on precip rates.

Our atmosphere is so interconnected, it's insane.

  • Like 2

Weather stats for MBY

Snowfall:

-Total snowfall since joining: 50.25"

-2018-19: 21"

-2019-20: 2.5"

-2020-21: 13"

-2021-22: 8.75"

-2022-23: 5.75"

-2023-24*: 0.25"

-Most recent snowfall: 0.25”; January 17th, 2024

-Largest snowfall (single storm): 8.5"; February 12-13, 2021

-Largest snow depth: 14"; 1:30am February 12th, 2019

Temperatures:

-Warmest: 109F; June 28th, 2021

-Coldest: 13F; December 27th, 2021

-Phreeze Count 2023-24: 31

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2 minutes ago, Meatyorologist said:

Whatever you are on, no matter what, enjoy the snow! I have plans to do some not-so-sober stuff when the next big thunderstorm rolls around. Been a bucket list item for me for a while. A two foot overachiever of a snowstorm is also a good substitute.

Just be careful if you feel the need to dive into your sea of white! I know that urge well ;)

I'm heading to bed.  It's all for comedy.  If I made one person laugh then that is all I need.  My wife and 2 year old daughter are in bed and I'm heading there soon.

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43 minutes ago, Doinko said:

What a beautiful GEM run
 

floop-gdps-2022121200.500h_anom_na.gif

floop-gdps-2022121200.850t_anom_na.gif

floop-gdps-2022121200.850th.us_nw.gif

I think it's inside the envelope of possible outcomes.

  • Like 3

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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